“Both the market and policy volatility are unprecedented since at least (the) Second World War. It is not only unprecedented for Canada, but for the world,” says Larry Martin, principal of Dr. Larry Martin & Associates, an agri-food consulting firm.

WHY IT MATTERS: Tariffs, the Iran conflict and broken trade rules have created the most volatile environment for Canadian agriculture since the Second World War, putting pressure on farm investment, debt servicing and mental health.

Markets

In a chart showing monthly ranges of U.S. corn futures contract prices since 1974, Martin points out larger differences from the peaks to the troughs during periods over approximately the last 15 years. Variations within a month are larger as well.

“This is a major part of the more volatile environment in which farmers operate,” he says, but notes that there remain periods of time — such as 2013 to 2020 — when they stabilize again. “We can put any commodity chart up and get a similar result.”

Martin cites increasing incomes of populations around the world as a major cause of market volatility, as well as a trend to trade commodities on a just-in-time basis.

The variation in canola prices over the last five years shows significantly greater volatility for farmers, according to Derek Brewin, professor and head of the University of Manitoba’s agribusiness and agricultural economics department.

He notes canola started in a trough around $450 per tonne ($10.23 per bushel) in the summer of 2019. It then climbed up to $1,200 per tonne ($27.27 per bushel) in May 2022. It’s moved around a lot since then, but generally on a downward trend until recently, Brewin says.

“But volatility does not always suggest an equal chance for devastating troughs and bonanza price spikes,” he says. “As a storable good, most grains and oilseeds see persistent price floors.”

If prices fall too low, buyers start to worry that producers will switch their land to other uses, Brewin says.

“But we occasionally see large crop failures on larger areas — North America in 2021 — and we get concern(ed) about supplies that identify consumers willing to pay much more than they normally do when they are just attracting supplies from the least demanding buyer that sets that floor price over time.”

Brewin says that the low prices of the summer of 2025 represented net losses to the average Manitoba farmer, and that current prices likely are a major relief. Drought concerns could send prices rising again, but a bumper crop could push them back down to last year’s lows, he says.

Crop price spikes damage livestock in the opposite direction, Brewin says.

“Every crop price spike represents a cost spike to the feed sector. I think they face a floor much lower than crops — especially if the herd is on a shrinking trend,” he explains. “When herds are shrinking, it represents a number of farmers forced out of business. We have not seen cropland abandoned the way beef herds have been dropping.”

Trade rule breaking

Governments breaking trade rules they’d previously agreed to are also contributing to price volatility.

“Government actions are caused by politicians who either don’t understand or don’t care about the consequences of their actions,” Martin says.

He says countries agree to rules under the WTO and then break them, pointing to India as a notable offender “opening up trade when prices are high, then closing it when they fall. Canadian pulse growers felt that one.”

Canada is not innocent, nor is the U.S. — even before Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office.

“Biden and Trudeau broke all the rules on dumping when they shut off Chinese exports of steel, aluminum and EVs,” Martin says.

Trump, however, takes rule breaking to another level: “Trump does it virtually every day,” he says.

War, fuel and fertilizer

The Iran conflict has added further pressure to an already strained global trading environment.

“The Iran war is unfolding against a global trading system already strained by Trump’s tariff,” said global financial institution ING.

S&P Global Inc., the parent company of S&P Global Ratings (previously Standard & Poor’s), said the war raised “farm-to-fork food inflation risks on fuel, freight, fertilizer disruptions.”

As Laura Rance-Unger noted in her piece, “Iran war catches Prairie farmers in the geopolitical crossfire — again”, over 40 per cent of a grain farmer’s annual operating costs go to fertilizer and fuel, and the conflict has made a war zone out of the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20 per cent of the seaborne oil and up to one-third of global trade in urea passes through.

Impacts on fertilizer purchases

Through anecdotal information he’s gathered from discussions with Manitoba input retailers, provincial farm management specialist Darren Bond has found 80 to 85 per cent of Manitoba producers have either purchased their fertilizer prior to the fighting or locked in the price, thus insulating them from the price increases associated with the Mideast conflict.

“However, the impact will most likely be felt in the fall 2026 fertilizer application period, especially if the conflict drags out for a longer period of time,” warns Bond.

Another risk is that producers won’t buy fertilizer this autumn in the hope prices will decrease over the winter, and delay application until spring 2027.

“This could severely stress the supply network, potentially causing supply issues,” Bond says.

Another risk is farmers slashing fertilizer applications due to high prices.

“Broad-based cuts to fertilizer could result in disappointing crop yields. That’s why it’s very important to soil test and apply appropriate amounts of fertilizer,” Bond emphasizes. “Protecting yield will be what pulls many producers successfully through these tighter times.”

Impacts on investment and growth

Global volatility and uncertainty make it much harder to undertake business forecasting and cause more volatility in production margins, which thereby make debt servicing riskier, Martin says.

“More volatility in prices, margins and incomes means people will likely invest less and growth will slow,” he says.

This can come from either internal or external capital rationing: internally when producers feel they need a higher return on capital before investing because of the extra risks; externally when lenders or equity partners go through the same analysis and decide to extend less capital, Martin explains.

“It also results in much more mental and emotional stress, which can affect decision-making,” he adds.

How farmers can protect themselves

Among the ways farmers can help themselves is to become ever more savvy with modern farming contracts.

“Without the [Canadian Wheat Board] CWB, grain companies are increasingly able to take more advantage of farmers by offering inferior contract terms, duration, price, blending, etc.,” says James Nolan, a professor in the department of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan. “What this means is that in the post-CWB era, I wonder if farmers should also be taught how to negotiate over contracts, which is a skill unto itself that can be improved through exposure and teaching — which we really don’t do.”

Another area for farmers to concentrate on: staying well informed about world events that can affect their margins.

“The world is now so well connected that farmers can no longer rely on local or regional information to support their decisions,” Nolan says. “They need to try to stay current with global news and try to stay ahead of all business reports that can be reasonably and logically tied to future demand for foods and commodities.”

He concedes that can be a lot of information to process “pushing the farming industry even more towards larger and more complex operations in equilibrium.”

“We still don’t really know what comprises the minimum efficient scale for Prairie farming. Right now, I wonder if this level of cost minimization for commodity farming now lies well beyond 25,000 acres,” Nolan says.

Finally — if possible — build a financial portfolio that includes the stocks of so-called “opponents,” such as railroads and/or grain companies, he says. Why not hedge your risks by supporting the business entities that share the pie with you, he asks.

The post Tariffs, trade wars and the Iran conflict: How Prairie farmers can manage unprecedented volatility appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Speaking at the Manitoba Agronomists Conference, Brian Beres, senior research scientist in agronomy with Agriculture Canada, said that while his discussion focused on wheat, the yield gap isn’t limited to cereals.

“Most cropping systems operate well below what’s biologically possible,” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Understanding the difference between yield potential and profitable yield can help farmers make better decisions about inputs, variety selection and management.

Yield gaps across Prairie crops

Research comparing potential yields with average farm yields suggests the gap remains substantial across several major crops.

For wheat, potential yields can reach about 75 bushels per acre under ideal conditions, while average Prairie farm yields are closer to 48 bu.per acre.

Those differences reflect the interaction of what agronomists describe as genotype, environment and management, often abbreviated as GxExM. Genetics and weather establish the biological ceiling for yield, but management determines how close farmers come to reaching it.

However, Beres said maximizing yield is not always the right target.

Balancing yield potential and profitability

Research suggests farmers should aim to achieve roughly 70 to 80 per cent of a crop’s theoretical yield potential. That range generally represents the point where strong yields can be achieved without the sharply rising input costs required to chase the final portion of theoretical yield.

That balance between agronomy and profitability was also a theme in a presentation at the same conference by Jochum Wiersma, a small grains extension specialist with the University of Minnesota, who examined how management intensity affects wheat yield, protein levels and economic returns.

In field trials comparing different management systems, increasing inputs generally produced higher yields and higher grain protein levels. High-yielding wheat varieties responded most strongly to additional inputs, while lower-yielding varieties showed smaller gains.

Protein levels also rose with higher nitrogen rates, although the economic benefits eventually plateau.

“Quality increases up to about 15 per cent protein,” Wiersma said.

Beyond that level, additional protein provides little additional market return.

Modelling risk and management decisions

Wiersma’s work also explored the economic implications of different management systems. Traditional economic comparisons often assume fixed grain prices and input costs, which can make lower-input systems appear more profitable.

However, farming rarely operates under such predictable conditions.

To better reflect real-world uncertainty, Wiersma used simulations that generate a range of possible outcomes by incorporating variability in grain prices, nitrogen costs, yields and protein discounts.

When that variability was included, more intensive management systems consistently produced stronger expected financial returns than low-input approaches.

The analysis also examined which factors had the greatest influence on profitability. Variety choice and grain price had the largest impact, while management decisions affected returns primarily through their effect on yield.

For Beres, the key is translating research into practical on-farm management strategies, and he says the GxExM framework provides the answer.

“Genetics really do set the ceiling, but management unlocks that potential. If we can do that properly, I really do see this as a frontier, and I think the Canadian Prairies could lead the way.”

Brian Beres
Senior research scientist in agronomy
Agriculture Canada

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It’s obvious to Rob Graf, and many others in Canada’s grain industry, that the country needs a new system for developing cereal crop varieties — one that attracts private investment while preserving public programs for crops too small to interest a company’s bottom line.

Graf is a winter wheat breeder who spent 35 years in public plant science, retiring from Agriculture Canada in 2022. He knows better than most what’s at risk.

“One of the things that concerns me (is) those crops that have lower acreage. How are those going to be funded? How are new varieties going to be developed?” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Grain farmers will soon need answers to Graf’s questions. A February report from the Canadian Wheat Research Coalition says the status quo — a public breeding system dominated by Agriculture Canada — is no longer a viable path forward. Federal plans to close research centres and lay off scientists are accelerating the timeline for change.

For decades, growers have relied on Agriculture Canada scientists to develop the latest varieties of spring wheat, durum and other cereals. The coalition’s February report found that Ag Canada varieties are grown on about 80 per cent of all wheat fields in Canada every year.

“It’s clear that the status quo is not a viable path forward,” says Jocelyn Velestuk, Canadian Wheat Research Coalition chair.

The public approach has delivered strong varieties to farmers, but in the last 15 years, the system has grown progressively weaker. It will soon be further undermined as the federal government plans to close research centres and lay off employees in its science and technology branch.

There are real-world examples of what happens when government stops investing in crop breeding. Flax is the clearest cautionary tale.

About 20 years ago, there were three flax breeding programs in Canada. Now, there’s one at the University of Saskatchewan. Without the breeders to improve yields, flax acres on the Prairies collapsed.

Other factors contributed to flax’s decline — competition from the Black Sea region chief among them — but poorly funded breeding programs and flat yields didn’t help.

What a new system could look like

Creating a new system to fund cereal breeding will not be easy. But a transition needs to happen, particularly for spring wheat, said Richard Cuthbert, a former wheat breeder with Agriculture Canada in Swift Current, Sask.

The public breeding system is currently handicapped by an insufficient number of test sites for small plot trials — sites that should cover a range of growing conditions across Western Canada. Without those sites and the related data, developing a competitive spring wheat variety is extremely difficult.

The crops that could fall through the cracks

Graf spent the bulk of his career working on winter wheat — a crop seeded on 300,000 to 350,000 acres on the Prairies. That is a small fraction of the 19 million acres of spring wheat grown in Canada, and a tiny sliver of the 65 million acres of all Prairie crops.

Winter wheat covers the soil through fall and spring, offering real environmental benefits — erosion control, early ground cover, reduced spring runoff. But its small acreage makes it a poor candidate for private investment.

“Will anybody be interested in developing winter wheat? We simply don’t know,” Graf said.

For now, the question is hypothetical — Agriculture Canada still has a winter wheat breeding program. But Graf’s concern applies to any specialty or low-acreage crop that lacks the commercial scale to attract private investment once the public system retreats.

“What we really need is a system where private and public can co-exist,” Graf said.

Key takeaways

• Agriculture Canada varieties cover 80 per cent of Canada’s wheat fields — but that dominance is built on a system the industry itself says in no longer sustainable.

• The federal government plans to close research centres and cut scientists, accelerating the timeline for change.

• Flax acreage fell 67 per cent over 20 years — partly a result of underfunded breeding. That pattern could repeat in other crops.

• Low-acreage crops like winter wheat may not attract private investment, creating a gap no one has a plan to fill yet.

• Industry leaders say the future requires private and public breeding to co-exist — but what that looks like is still unknown.

Read the Canadian Wheat Research Coalition’s February 2026 report.

The post Canada’s cereal breeding system is failing. Who fills the gap? appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

There have been well publicized break-ins, livestock and equipment thefts, seizures of weapons and stolen property. Underpinning that, farmers said, it takes a while for police to get out to a call on Prairie farms, and long response times are among the issues that organizations such as Keystone Agricultural Producers have noted from their membership.

Manitoba’s general farm group has been pushing for legislative reform and resources to give local police more tools and reduce crime rates. They’ve also targeted the issue with their membership, running educational events covering landowners rights and encouraging pre-emptive steps among Manitoba farmers.

WHY IT MATTERS: Rural groups such as Keystone Agricultural Producers have been lobbying for improvements to law enforcement outside of city limits.

“We really recommend that farmers review their insurance policies and make sure that they inventory valuable items,” said Jill Verwey, KAP president. “That’s something that I think that you need to have now, whether that’s even in the case of fire to make sure that you have everything documented.”

There are also general safety practices noted by farm groups and officials:

• Farmers may want to invest in better yard lighting, with motion sensor lighting considered the top option
• General due diligence should be followed, such as locking all farm buildings and the home, taking keys out of vehicles and equipment and locking vehicles
• Learn who your neighbours are, both so you can recognize them and share any suspicious activity observed
• Get a large guard dog
• Concerned farmers can start a citizen watch or rural crime watch group. Provincial associations for Alberta and Saskatchewan publish relevant resources
• Place security cameras at entry and exit points of buildings and the property, or any areas that could be considered high traffic. These should be angled to capture vehicles and faces of offenders. It’s a good idea to have a combination of visible and non-visible cameras.

Alberta RCMP Corporal Troy Savinkoff pointed out the importance of cameras. They’re deterrents to offenders and provide officers with documentation.

“If you’re looking at multiple cameras, or a trail camera, you could set it up in a less obvious spot, for instance, further up in the property, where the offender may not be covering the face,” he said. “But if you only got a camera or two, certainly put them in the areas that are most likely the entry and exit areas.”

His biggest safety tip is to always communicate situations and suspicions to police — even benign or innocent. Someone coming to the door to ask for directions, for example, could also be casing the property to see if anyone’s home, he said.

Verwey also encouraged farmers to pick up the phone and make the call.

Farmers making a report are encouraged to take note of information like vehicle description, license plate, time of day and description of any people.

The post Protecting the farm from crime appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Lerner said he heard stories of some Prairie farmers saying conditions are drier now than in the spring, but he chalks that up to their very localized conditions.

The Prairies caught a break with sufficient rains from June to early August, he said.

“We backtracked the last couple of months, and the soil is very short,” Lerner added. “The bottom line is that we are very dry again, mostly in Palliser’s Triangle.”

Aside from some light precipitation, the prospects of rectifying the dryness and drought are very poor, he said. Even the La Niña that is taking hold of weather patterns won’t have much effect and the phenomenon is to peter out by the end of December.

Won’t be much help from La Niña

Lerner said a La Niña would most often generate above normal amounts of snow for an area that includes much of southern Alberta, as well as southwestern Saskatchewan and into central Montana. This time around that’s unlikely to happen, but that area will still get some build up of precipitation.

The meteorologist said drought conditions are likely to get worse for an area stretching across west-central Saskatchewan to east-central Alberta.

Added to that is the Peace country in Alberta, which Lerner noted is especially dry and has gone a full year without a lot of moisture.

“They’re hurting like Palliser’s Triangle is,” he said.

As for the U.S., Lerner pointed to “droughty” conditions for much of the Plains as the cold weather sets in.

“It’s difficult to get enough moisture during the cold season to change the moisture profile,” he said, but pointed to a bright side.

“There has been enough precipitation in the U.S. for winter wheat emergence and establishment. So this is not a crisis. It’s not as serious as it is in Canada,” Lerner explained.

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“Feed prices are kind of in a holding pattern,” said Motz. “There’s lots of supply, there doesn’t appear to be lots of demand at the moment.”

With that, Motz noted feedlots appear to be well covered and business simply comes down to “wait and see.” He placed feed barley prices at C$260 to C$265 per tonne delivered Lethbridge for March-April-May.

He was reluctant to give prices for feed wheat since there has been so little business for it. And with barley prices less than those for corn, he believes there isn’t a lot of corn coming in from the United States.

Motz said it comes down to feeders waiting to see if they can purchase barley at the price they want or bring in U.S. corn.

Western Canadian feed prices

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported feed barley and wheat prices were largely steady across Western Canada for the week ended Oct. 22, with the only gains in Manitoba.

Feed barley was up 13 cents in Manitoba at C$4.00 to C$4.32 per bushel delivered. Saskatchewan prices held at C$4.25 to C$4.75/bu. delivered with Alberta remaining at C$4.35 to C$5.60.

In Manitoba, feed wheat tacked on two cents at C$5.65/bu. delivered. Saskatchewan was unchanged at C$6.88/bu. delivered with Alberta steady at C$5.46 to C$7.25.

The post Feed Grains Weekly: Prices in holding pattern appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Key points:

* Lingering fall warmth in tug-of-war with first push of Arctic air

* Strengthening ridge to bring mild weather to Alberta and western Saskatchewan

* Winds and rains likely for parts of Manitoba later in the week

Prairie overview

Last week’s forecast played out quite close to expectations and the models had a good handle on the overall pattern. However, as often happens this time of year, the details began to shift toward the latter half of the period. The Alberta low that was projected to develop and dive southeastward into the U.S. did indeed form, but instead of taking that southern path, it tracked farther north across central Saskatchewan before moving into southern Manitoba. Once it reached Manitoba, the system slowed and strengthened, producing yet another round of significant rainfall for that area. Fortunately, cold air has remained largely absent around these systems which means snowfall has been minimal or nonexistent.

As we head into the new forecast period, there is a broad area of low pressure slowly drifting east over northwestern Ontario. To the west, a large and persistent low sits over the Gulf of Alaska, while in between, a small but strengthening upper ridge is building across the western Prairies. This ridge will bring a return of milder weather, particularly across Alberta and western Saskatchewan, where daytime highs are expected to rise well above seasonal norms for mid-October.

By the weekend, the Gulf of Alaska low is expected to begin pushing inland. As it does so, it will weaken and split into several smaller systems, which will move across Western Canada in pieces. This will gradually push the ridge of high pressure eastward, allowing mild Pacific air to spread into central and eastern parts of the Prairies. There’s still some uncertainty about exactly how these lows will behave, but the models are suggesting one system will track into northern Canada, another into central Alberta and a third will spin up over the western U.S.

Weather models have been consistent with the low forming over the U.S. becoming the dominant system later in the weekend. If this pans out, it would likely lift northeastward into southern Manitoba sometime between Monday and Tuesday morning, bringing yet another round of rain to parts of that region.

Alberta

Across Alberta, most regions can look forward to sunny skies and mild temperatures early in the forecast period. The ridge of high pressure building in from the west will provide several days of calm, stable weather — a good stretch for any remaining harvest operations or fieldwork. Daytime highs are expected to reach between 10 and 15 C, with overnight lows near 5 C. By the weekend, however, the Gulf of Alaska low will move inland and start to break down the ridge, allowing a new area of low pressure to develop over central Alberta. This will introduce some cooler air, with daytime highs slipping back into the 5 to 10 C range. Clouds will increase across central and northern regions, along with the chance of a few scattered showers. Early next week, if the developing low over the eastern Prairies strengthens as expected, it could help draw in a shot of colder Arctic air from the north. Highs could then drop to around 2 to 5 C under partly cloudy skies, with a few light flurries possible over higher terrain and northern districts.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Farther east, across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the week begins under a building ridge of high pressure that is spreading in from the west. This setup will bring several days of generally fair weather with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and a return to mild temperatures. Daytime highs should climb into the low to mid-teens, with the warmest readings expected across Saskatchewan and slightly cooler conditions in eastern Manitoba. The mild spell is forecast to hold through the weekend as a weak low lifts northeast out of Alberta. Temperatures will stay comfortable, generally in the low to mid-teens, although breezy conditions may make it feel a touch cooler. Winds will be light to moderate across Saskatchewan but will strengthen over Manitoba, where moderate to strong southerly winds are expected, especially on Saturday and Sunday.

Looking into early next week, the last piece of Pacific energy is expected to swing across the western U.S. and help spin up a more organized low over the central states. If current model trends continue, this system will lift northeastward into southern Manitoba early in the week, bringing another widespread round of rainfall to much of the eastern Prairies. Confidence is in the placement of this low is low, but overall the models keep showing the chance for significant precipitation with the potential for some areas to see between 10 and 20 millimetres of additional rain. Fortunately, temperatures look warm enough that precipitation should remain in liquid form, and there are still no strong indications of a significant snow-producing storm on the horizon.

While colder air will likely begin to filter in behind this system, the transition appears gradual, and much of the region should remain above freezing during the day through the middle of next week. All in all, the Prairie weather pattern continues to show a tug-of-war between lingering fall warmth and the first real pushes of Arctic air. So far, the warm air seems to be winning but we will have to wait and see if that continues into November.

The post Prairie forecast: Warm start, then cooler appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Variable weather which brought rains to the Prairies pressured wheat prices as well as weaker United States futures. However, a declining loonie gave some support to prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wheat conditions at 49 per cent good to excellent as of Aug. 10. While the winter wheat crop was 90 per cent harvested, near the average pace, the spring wheat harvest was 16 per cent complete, six points behind the normal pace.

Canadian Western Red Spring wheat was down C$0.80 to up C$0.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$242.10/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$269.30 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$31.90 to C$59.10/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7243), CWRS bids were from US$175.30 to US$195.10/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$15.10 to US$34.90 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$11 to C$25.20 below the futures.

Meanwhile, CPRS prices were down C$3 to C$4.70 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$212.60 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$242.40 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were up C$0.10 to C$0.50 per tonne with bids between C$312.10 in northeast Saskatchewan to C$327.40 in southern Alberta.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.72 per bushel on Aug. 14, down two cents.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The September contract was down 17.25 cents at US$5.0425/bu.

The September Chicago soft red contract lost 14.75 cents at US$5.0350/bu.

The Canadian dollar pulled back 0.28 of a cent to close at 72.43 U.S. cents on Aug. 14.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly Spring wheat prices decline appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

According to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) via CTV News, some regions received more than 100 millimetres of rain that weekend. Much of the rainfall was focused on the foothills south of Calgary as well as many parts of eastern Alberta, said the agency.

Rain in the Peace was spotty, but it wasn’t alone. Grant Lastiwka, a beef producer and forage consultant from the central Alberta town of Innisfail, says patchy rainfall means a grower could have received abundant moisture while their neighbour’s land a few miles away could be dry as a bone.

These regional moisture patterns are “probably more notable” than Lastiwka has ever seen.

”When somebody says “I’ve had four inches this year’ — which we’ve had — you go ahead 10 miles east and they’ve had one inch.”

That said, he called the two-and-seven-tenths inches of rain that fell on his Innisfail farm June 21 a “godsend” with the soil absorbing it almost immediately.

Ed Shaw, chair of the Alberta Forage Industry Network (now ARECA), is optimistic the new precipitation will make a difference.

“It’s going to improve primarily the cereal crops. It may improve the hay crops. It’s definitely an improvement to have some more moisture.”

Hay situation ‘serious’

The outlook is looking bleak for some areas of Alberta even after the weekend rainfall, says Shaw.

“The hay situation is serious,” he says, speaking primarily of regions south of Edmonton.

“I was talking to a farmer yesterday. He farms about 5,500 acres. He’s got about 500 acres less than normal, which is not great, but he wanted to cut it in case of rain, so he might get a good second cut.”

Others he’s spoken to haven’t been even that lucky. He’s seeing — on average — less than a tonne of forages per acre to half a tonne per acre.

“South (of Edmonton) is roughly dry and then there’s areas down in the south from Medicine Hat to Pincher Creek — some areas that have some moisture but the hay is very short this year.

“Even the irrigated people are saying it’s pretty bleak down there.”

Meanwhile, in the Alberta Peace Country, Shaw has heard unofficial reports of “okay” but marginal rainfall.

Alberta’s forage acres got off to a poor start with little soil moisture, little runoff on pastures and empty or semi-filled dugouts, says Lastiwka, calling the situation a “profound problem.”

“This year my neighbour sold a bunch of cows because they don’t have sufficient water. The dugouts didn’t fill. The wells can’t handle it. So the reality is now we’re in a progressive stage of too dry and it’s not the first or second year for the majority of people — it’s a third or fourth.”

Lastiwka has been travelling around the province checking forage conditions in several areas including Athabasca, Duchess and Oyen.

“In general, what we’re seeing are stressed forages that are lacking moisture and hay crops that are heading out with low yield potential.”

He believes Alberta is in a “declining moisture environment” that is making this year’s forage acres even more challenging than usual. ”

If there’s a ray of sunshine on the horizon, it’s the decent state of annual crops, he says.

Forage a ‘mixed bag’ in Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan also received some much-needed rain over the weekend, but so far forage conditions have been a mixed bag. All respondents pointed to previous lack of rainfall as a common denominator, even in the usually moisture-rich Parkland region of the province.

Just ask Duane Thompson, a mixed holistic farmer from that region (specifically Kelliher).

Although rain has been sparse, a hit of fall snow melted into his unfrozen soil, and marginal spring rain has replenished some of Thompson’s soil moisture, giving his hay and forage crops a chance to germinate.

Thompson plants about a section of first-year hay every year for haylage. He doesn’t think his new hay is going to do very well in the short term, but some of his older haylage land is looking good, he says.

Calvin Gavelin, who also describes himself as a holistic mixed farmer, got seven-tenths of an inch of rain over the June 21-22 weekend. However, overall rainfall in the drought-prone Palliser’s Triangle area where he farms remains elusive.

His forage season got off to a bad start due to lack of rain and insufficient subsoil moisture. His perennial forages didn’t even get off the ground. Instead, he may have to lean on his annual forages, which benefited from a surprise shower over the May long weekend.

”It didn’t help the other stuff, because it has all gone dormant. But our annuals are our gold star plan if it works,” he says.

Extra hay cuts hinge on rain in Manitoba

In Manitoba, dairy producers are mostly done their first hay cuts while many beef growers are just getting started, said Cindy Jack, livestock and forage extension specialist with Manitoba Agriculture on June 17.

Alfalfa has so far weathered Manitoba’s dry spring better than the grass thanks to its strong root structure, At the time of her comments, most alfalfa had entered early bloom and grasses were starting to head out.

Jack also suggested that overall forage growth was being compromised by older stands and fields that did not receive fertilizer. “(They) generally have lower productivity.”

The prognosis for further hay cuts will be weather-dependent, she added.

“Without significant rainfall soon, regrowth will be limited due to moisture stress, reducing the likelihood of subsequent cuts.”

Southeastern Manitoba dairy farmer Stefan Signer echoes Jack’s concerns.

“At this point, we are really hoping and needing some rain so that the fields can recover for maybe a second and maybe a third cut,” the Kleefeld-area farmer said.

The post Mid-June rain a ‘godsend’ but forage growers manage expectations appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“A week ago, July barley was $315 per tonne (delivered) and today (June 26) I’m struggling to get $300,” Haley said. “I do have offers at $300 and bids at $295 just for small tonnage because the position is pretty filled up.”

He added that August barley is also around C$295/tonne, while that for September through to December is going for C$290, down C$10 from last week. It was the same story for barley January through to March, losing the same amount at C$295.

Corn prices were very similar, said Haley, citing those from July to September at C$292/tonne delivered with October to December at C$290.

The broker pointed to the one and a half to four inches of rain Alberta recently got as a reason why feed prices are lower. He also said the number of cattle at the feedlots are dwindling as there’s too much risk in acquiring replacement cattle.

“Wheat for feed is pretty much a dead duck in my world,” Haley said as there’s very little demand for it. He noted that corn is often substituted for wheat.

Haley said dry conditions through a large part of southwestern Saskatchewan could provide some support for feed prices, with almost no grass or hay available for livestock.

“But other than that, we’re probably in this funk for about four months,” he said.

“The farmer needs to continue to watch what corn is worth, because that’s going to tell you pretty much what your barley is worth,” he added.

The post Feed Grains Weekly: Prices to remain in a ‘funk’ for now appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.