The farm lender maintained its prediction that GDP growth would slow to around one per cent.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted the flow of oil and gas from the region, has pushed commodity prices to multi-year highs, FCC economist Krishen Rangasamy wrote in a March 18 report.

Pros and cons

The jump in prices could spell opportunity for Canada, Rangasamy said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Higher fuel and fertilizer prices for farmers today could be followed by higher borrowing costs in the future if core inflation persists.

“Given its high historical correlation with commodity prices, nominal GDP (which matters for government revenues) is likely to also perk up.”

If commodity prices stay high, the federal government and governments in resource-rich provinces such as Alberta or Newfoundland and Labrador could see higher revenues. That doesn’t mean governments will spend more, Rangasamy said, but there’s potential for a spending-related GDP boost.

However, fertilizer prices are among those surging due to the conflict which is weighing on the ag sector. Higher prices for fuel can also push up inflation and erode consumers’ buying power.

Trade war damages

Last year, Canada’s economy saw the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic recession — growing just 1.7 per cent, Rangasamy wrote. Export volumes fell on an annual basis for the first time in five years.

Government and consumption spending offset weaknesses in housing and business investment. However, based on a slumping household savings rate, consumers also dipped into savings to maintain lifestyles. This means Canadians have little cushion to absorb future shocks.

“With no end in sight to America’s trade war … look for trade and business investment to act as a drag on Canada’s economy again in 2026,” Rangasamy said.

Government and consumption spending may not provide as much of an offset this time. Rangasamy noted the government has telegraphed caution related to public spending. While ambitious public projects are in the works, that spending isn’t expected this year.

Interest rates and the loonie

If commodity prices stay high long enough, businesses may be forced to raise prices which could lead workers to demand higher wages.

“That could potentially trigger a wage-price spiral,” said Rangasamy.

The Bank of Canada could pre-emptively raise interest rates to prevent core inflation from taking off. However, he predicted the bank would stay in “pause mode” for several months.

FCC predicted the Canadian dollar would trade in the 72- to 74-U.S. cent range for most of the year, but acknowledged currency volatility could temporarily take it outside that range.

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A slowdown in demand for herbicide and pesticides as well as excess inventories had resulted in large destocking in South America, denting the U.S.-based company’s earnings for much of the year.

The company also provided its preliminary 2024 revenue forecast on Thursday. FMC expects revenue in the range of $4.65 billion to $4.85 billion, compared with analysts’ estimate of $4.7 billion, according to LSEG data (all figures US$).

FMC expects 2026 revenue between $5.5 billion and $6 billion.

“As the company launches and ramps up new products, we see a clear path for adjusted EBITDA margins to recover to the mid-20% level, after falling to the low-20% level this year,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein had said in a note.

— Reporting for Reuters by Sourasis Bose in Bangalore.

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The Italian-American group, whose shares are currently traded both on the NYSE and in Milan, earlier this year announced a plan to abandon its Italian listing.

CNH said in a statement on Tuesday that the Milan Stock Exchange had approved an application it filed to delist its ordinary shares from Milan bourse and had set the Jan. 2 date for when a NYSE single listing will be effective.

Its shares will be tradable in Milan until Dec. 29.

CNH also on Tuesday lowered its 2023 revenue forecast, citing a softening for its farm machinery, predominantly in South America, sending its shares plummeting.

As part of its New York single-listing plan, CNH announced a new share buyback program worth up to US$1 billion.

“The program is intended to optimize the capital structure of the company and to assist with offsetting any potential volatility arising from the delisting of its shares on Euronext Milan,” CNH said in a statement.

Since it spun off its truck and bus unit in January 2022, now separately listed as Iveco Group, the majority of CNH stock trading has progressively shifted to NYSE, the company said.

“Concentrating trading in one market should allow for increased liquidity and investor focus, while further simplifying the company profile and compliance requirements,” it said.

The new buyback program will run between Nov. 8 and March 1 and will be funded through the company’s liquidity.

It will consist of two components: the repurchase of shares worth up to 400 million euros (C$588 million) on Euronext Milan and on multilateral trading facilities between Nov. 8 and Dec. 29 and the repurchase of shares for the remaining amount to be executed on NYSE between Nov. 8 and Match 1.

Goldman Sachs is acting as financial advisor to CNH, while BNP Paribas is acting as co-advisor and buyback agent for the group in Europe.

— Reporting for Reuters by Giulio Piovaccari.

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JBS reported a net loss of 263.6 million reais (C$73.8 million), the second consecutive negative result in 2023.

The company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in line with a consensus forecast of 4.47 billion reais (C$1.25 billion), but was down 57 per cent on the year-ago period, when the company’s operating and financial performance were strong.

In the quarter, JBS said its North American beef margins shrank from the same time a year ago, reflecting a reduction in the supply of livestock in the region.

Its North American beef division, which includes its packing and processing operations in Canada, reported adjusted EBITDA of US$87.5 million on revenue of US$5.81 billion for the quarter, down from US$620 million on US$5.52 billion in the year-ago period.

Citing USDA data, JBS said cattle prices rose 26 per cent last quarter to US$179/cwt while wholesale beef prices grew by 17 per cent in the same period.

“For over the next few months, we see a scenario of greater balance in the supply of poultry with positive potential for prices,” JBS said of the outlook for that market.

Its Pilgrims Pride division, which processes poultry in the U.S., for example reported a 49 per cent decline in EBITDA to 3.635 billion reais.

At the same time JBS’ U.S. pork division had a 15 per cent annual drop in revenues, reflecting a 21 per cent fall in wholesale pork prices due to excess supply, JBS said.

In Brazil, the company’s beef division reported a 10 per cent rise in revenue in U.S. dollar terms, as a result of higher volumes exported in the second quarter after a fall in the first quarter caused by a temporary Chinese ban on Brazilian beef products.

On the other hand, JBS’ Seara prepared foods division in Brazil, which processes pork and poultry, had a 3.5 per cent drop in revenue reflecting smaller export sales.

— Reporting for Reuters by Ana Mano in Sao Paulo; includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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PSAC president Chris Aylward said he was “setting a clock on this round of bargaining” and that a strike would be called if there is no deal by 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

The strike would affect federal services and could delay tax refunds since about 35,000 workers at the revenue agency would walk out in the middle of tax filing season. Passport renewals ahead of summer travel could also be delayed.

“Despite some progress at the bargaining table, our members are frustrated that while negotiations drag on, they continue to fall behind,” Aylward told reporters. “We’ve always said from day one, we need wages for our members that will keep up with inflation.”

PSAC has been in collective bargaining for a new contract since 2021. Tax agency workers initially sought a pay bump of more than 30 per cent over three years, and others are asking for 13.5 per cent over three years. Inflation peaked at 8.1 per cent last year.

Aylward said the offers received so far had fallen short. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he was hopeful a deal would be reached to avert a strike.

“There have been constructive advances and offers and we’re very hopeful that we’re going to be able to resolve this, but it’s at the bargaining table that these things happen and we will continue to do that be there in good faith and work on trying to resolve this for all Canadians,” Trudeau told reporters.

The strike would also affect 65 per cent of employees at the Canadian Grain Commission, including most inspectors of outbound grain at ports, according to the commission. Canada is a major wheat and canola exporter.

The commission is working on contingency plans with grain companies to ensure that “critical grain exports can continue,” during a strike, spokesperson Remi Gosselin said.

— Reporting for Reuters by Steve Scherer in Ottawa; additional reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg.

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Those are key words emerging from the latest Census of Agriculture.

The broad strokes from the 2021 census confirm trends that are well known: Farms are consolidating and getting bigger, land and other assets are worth more, revenues and expenses are both going up, and the high cost of getting into farming means there are fewer young farmers.

But it can nevertheless be startling when you see the numbers put on those trends.

Take, for example, farm revenue.

“Farms reporting at least $2 million in sales accounted for 51.5 per cent of total farm operating revenues. This compared with 41.5 per cent in 2016,” said StatCan’s first big release of data from the 2021 farm census.

And how many farms are that big?

Just 7,746 — or barely four per cent of the nation’s 189,874 official farms. (A definition now based on whether the operation “reports revenues or expenses for tax purposes.” Prior to 2021, producing at least one “agricultural product” was the yardstick.)

In Alberta, there were 41,505 farms in 2021 (slightly over one in five of the national total). Of those, 1,651 fell into the Mr. Big category (sales of $2 million or more) and that was also just over one in five.

A few more grey hairs

“The median age of farm operators rose by 2.0 years from the previous census, reaching 58.0 years in 2021,” StatCan’s report states.

Median means half are older and half younger (although the average age, 56 years old, isn’t much different). That compares to a median age in Canada as a whole of 41.6 years.

Moreover, the median age nationally is only up a few months compared to five years earlier, which means the average farmer is, in effect, aging faster than the average Canadian.

Put another way, nearly 159,000 farmers in Canada were 55 years or older last year and fewer than 23,000 were under the age of 35. (And of those youngsters, fewer than 10,000 had their own farm — the rest were on farms with two or more operators.)

However, unlike the rest of the country, the number of younger farmers in Alberta increased from the previous census to just over 5,100 (up a couple of hundred from five years earlier). That compares to 35,500 Alberta farmers aged 55 or older (and 16,500 between the age of 35 and 55).

Moreover, only 12 per cent of farms reported having a succession plan, although that was up sharply from 8.4 per cent in 2016. StatCan suggested the “challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic” may have prompted more farm families to develop a succession plan.

And no, farms aren’t cheap

The total value of the land and buildings on farms soared in the five years between censuses, topping $603 billion last year. That’s up 22.7 per cent from five years earlier (in inflation-adjusted dollars), which means the price tag on those assets rose by more than $110 billion.

And a lot of that wealth is in Wild Rose Country: $161 billion, according to the census.

Zeroing in on just land, the census says the total area farmed in Canada is 154 million acres, with 64 per cent of it owned by the operator. The corresponding figures for Alberta are 49.2 million acres farmed but only 60 per cent owned.

However, the first batch of census data released this month is skimpy when breaking down how many own how much.

Nearly half of the 189,874 official farms are worth less than $1.5 million, which isn’t a lot more than the average house price in Vancouver or Toronto. However, StatCan lumps every farm worth more than $3.5 million into one category. Just over 50,000 farms (a quarter of them in Alberta) fall into that group, and having such a broad category doesn’t give any clues about the value of those 7,746 operations that account for more than half of the country’s farm revenues.

Reams of data

StatCan said that in 2020, the average Canadian farmer incurred 83 cents in expenses for every dollar of revenue (that is, revenues of $87 billion versus expenses of $72.2 billion). Grain and oilseed farms were the most profitable, with an expenses-to-revenues ratio of 0.76, the agency said. Sheep and goat farms had the slimmest profits (expenses ate up 97 cents of every dollar in revenue).

Other census findings include:

• A slight drop in the number of farm operators (262,455 in 2021 or about 9,400 fewer people) but more women operating farms (79,795 in 2021, an increase of about 1,800).
• More producers had off-farm jobs (about 125,000, which is just under half of all farmers and up by 3.8 per cent from the last census).
• More farmers reported using sustainable land practices (such as winter or rotational grazing, winter cover crops, and shelterbelts) and more are growing organic products (three per cent versus 2.2 per cent five years earlier).
• 11.9 per cent of farms reported “some form of renewable energy production” such as solar power (compared to 5.3 per cent in 2016). Other technologies that “became more prominent” in 2020 included automated guidance steering systems (up 28.2 per cent from 2015) and geographic information system mapping (up 58.6 per cent).
• The total greenhouse area increased by nearly a quarter (to 330.5 million square feet in 2021).
• And after falling for two decades, the number of tractors rose slightly in 2021 (to 164,000).

Find out more

To find tables, scroll down to the link titled ‘Farm and Farm Operator Data.’ Tables can often be customized — for example, by province, commodity and/or year — by clicking on the ‘Add/Remove data’ button just above a given table. (A large portion of the numbers in this story came from using this feature.) — With Glacier FarmMedia files

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Statistics Canada on Wednesday began releasing data from its 2021 Census of Agriculture, and the agency’s changes to the definition of a “farm” — and a noteworthy new entrant not included in the listed mix of Canadian cash crops — make some, but not all, direct comparisons to the numbers from 2016 or earlier censuses more difficult.

StatsCan noted a “significant conceptual change” for 2021 in which a “farm” or an “agricultural holding” now refers to “a unit that produces agricultural products and reports revenues or expenses for tax purposes to the Canada Revenue Agency.” In 2016 and earlier censuses, a “farm” was “an agricultural operation that produced at least one agricultural product intended for sale.”

That change, StatsCan said, “may result in farms being classified differently across farm types than in previous censuses,” so “comparisons with earlier census results should be interpreted with caution.”

The 2021 census counted 189,874 farms in Canada, for a “moderate” decrease of 1.9 per cent from 2016, on total area of 153,687,771 acres, down 3.2 per cent. The decline in the number of farms was the smallest in 25 years, StatsCan said.

Of the 2021 total, 34.3 per cent of farms are in oilseeds and grains, followed by 20.9 per cent in beef cattle and feedlots; those two sectors combined account for 82.7 per cent of total farm area.

Many farms, StatsCan said in Wednesday’s report, have consolidated and become increasingly larger both in terms of sales and number of employees. “Conversely, smaller and mid-sized farms are declining in Canada, thereby impacting the rural landscape and profile of Canadian regions.”

The proportion of farms with sales of $1 million or more in 2020 was 9.9 per cent, up from 7.2 per cent in 2015, StatsCan said.

And in 2021, farms reporting at least $2 million in sales accounted for over half of Canada’s total farm operating revenues, at a share of 51.5 per cent, up from 41.5 per cent in 2016.

Farm operating revenues in Canada totalled $87 billion in 2020 against expenses of $72.2 billion, StatsCan said. On average, for every dollar in revenues, farms incurred 83 cents in expenses. Farms classified as oilseed and grain farming were the most profitable, with an expenses-to-revenues ratio of 0.76; Sheep and goat farms had the highest ratio, at 0.97.

Older on average

The average age of Canada’s farm operators rose to 56 in 2021, from 55 in 2016. The median age of farm operators, meanwhile, is 58, up from 56. In 2021, 60.5 per cent of farm operators were age 55 or older, up from 54.5 per cent in 2016; Canada’s share of young (under age 35) operators, meanwhile, is 8.6 per cent, down from 9.1 in 2016.

StatsCan suggested that aging trend, as well as the “challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic,” may have played a role in an increased proportion of farms in Canada reporting a succession plan — now at 12 per cent, up from 8.4 in 2016.

The census also points to a continuing decline in the number of farm operators, at 262,455 in 2021, down from 271,935 in 2016. reported from the previous census. In 2016, there were 271,935 farm operators, and by 2021 the number decreased to 262,455.

StatsCan also noted that its count of female operators is up for the first time since 1991, at 79,795 in 2021, from 77,970 in 2016.

The number of farm operators working off the farm in 2020, at 125,280, or 47.7 per cent, up 3.8 per cent from 2015. Of that number, full-time off-farm workers made up 66 per cent, down from 68.1 per cent in 2015.

The new census also shows a less-than-surprising climb in farmland values, with contributing factors including “strong commodity prices, low interest rates and a growing demand for housing in urban areas.”

When measured in constant 2021 dollars, the reported total market value of land and buildings for farms in Canada increased by 22.7 per cent to $603.8 billion in 2021 compared to 2016. Market value of owned land, buildings and fixed equipment increased by 19.1 per cent to $420.9 billion in 2021, while market value of rented land and buildings was up 32 per cent at $182.9 billion.

Under glass

Among farm practices, StatsCan noted an uptick in use of sustainable land practices such as in-field winter grazing or feeding, rotational grazing, winter cover crops and shelterbelts, at 64.5 per cent of farms in 2020, up from 53.7 in 2015.

In 2021, 5,658 farms reported growing organic products, making up three per cent of total farms, up from 2.2 per cent in 2016.

Also, 11.9 per cent of farms reported “some form of renewable energy production” such as solar power or others in 2021, up from 5.3 per cent in 2016. Other technologies that “became more prominent” in 2020 included automated guidance steering systems (up 28.2 per cent from 2015) and geographic information system mapping (up 58.6 per cent).

Farms in Canada also reported a 23.2 per cent increase in total greenhouse area to 330.5 million square feet in 2021. Of that total, 66.5 per cent was in fruit and vegetables.

That count, however, doesn’t include weed. StatsCan noted the data it released Wednesday excludes cannabis operations — on which the agency in 2021 gathered Census of Agriculture data for the first time. It said it will release its Census of Agriculture data on cannabis operations separately later this year.

StatsCan’s quarterly data on farm cash receipts and annual data on net farm income, meanwhile, have included cannabis production since it was legalized in 2018. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Provincial Finance Minister Donna Harpauer on Wednesday released her 2022-23 budget with $17.6 billion in expenditures on $17.2 billion in revenues, for an expected deficit of $463 million, well down from the province’s forecast deficit of $2.185 billion for 2021-22.

The province said its budgetary appropriations and expenses for the agriculture ministry come in at $462.4 million, up 19.5 per cent from 2021-22, on “strong 2022-23 crop insurance program and record agriculture research funding.”

The 2022-23 budget’s broader agriculture-themed expenditures come in at $1.04 billion, up 18.3 per cent from the 2021-22 budget of $879.3 million, primarily due to “higher projected crop insurance indemnities as a result of higher crop prices, as well as higher reinsurance premiums.”

However, that estimate is well down from the province’s latest forecast for those 2021-22 ag-themed expenditures, at $3.19 billion, due mainly to last year’s drought-related crop insurance payouts and AgriRecovery program costs.

New line items relating to agriculture this year include $475,000 to set up a new Crown corporation, to be called the Saskatchewan Indigenous Investment Finance Corp.

The new Crown is expected to offer up to $75 million in loan guarantees on private-sector lending to Indigenous communities and organizations for investments into “natural resource and value-added agriculture projects,” the province said.

The province will also further backstop major value-added ag projects through “enhancement” of the Saskatchewan Value-added Agriculture Incentive (SVAI), a 15 per cent tax credit in place since 2018 on capital expenditures of at least $10 million toward newly constructed or expanded value-added ag facilities.

Retroactive to 2018, eligible projects will still get the 15 per cent rebate on the portion of a project’s expenditures up to $400 million, but could also get 30 per cent on the portion between $400 million and $600 million, and 40 per cent on the portion in excess of $600 million. The dollar value of the tax credit will be capped at $250 million.

Examples of qualifying projects include canola crush facilities, pea protein processors, oat milling operations, malt producing operations, and cannabis oil facilities, the province said.

The SVAI and other incentives are “key to Saskatchewan’s competitiveness, attracting private investment from global companies like BHP, Richardson International, Viterra, Ceres Global Ag, Cargill, Federated Co-operatives, AGT Foods, Paper Excellence and Red Leaf Pulp,” the province said Wednesday.

The province on Wednesday also noted that starting April 1 this year, certain “clarifications” will made to provincial sales tax (PST) related to farming and agriculture activities — for example, confirming a PST exemption for the “on-farm digging of dugouts.”

Revenues

On the taxation side of the ledger, the province announced Wednesday it will make “minor changes” to its education property tax (EPT) mill rates for this budget year, “asking residential (and) agricultural as well as commercial and resource property owners to pay slightly more EPT on average.”

For agricultural properties, that 2022 EPT mill rate will rise to 1.42 from 1.36, while residential property EPT mill rates will rise to 4.54 from 4.46.

Harpauer said Wednesday the province’s improved revenue forecast is based on increased revenue from taxes at $8.1 billion, up $850 million from 2021-22 — but also on non-renewable resource revenue at $2.9 billion, up by $1.6 billion from 2021-22.

That increased resource revenue, she said, is “largely due to higher potash and oil price forecasts, which is the result of stronger than expected global demand.”

While crude oil values have been on an upslope for months, they recently leaped higher following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as economic sanctions imposed by other countries limit Russia’s involvement in energy markets.

Potash prices have also climbed due to fresh sanctions limiting exports from both Russia and Belarus, the world’s No. 2 and 3 potash-producing countries behind Canada.

“It’s too soon to tell if oil prices will remain high for an extended period and what impact that could have on revenues,” Harpauer said, adding that “because resource prices are so volatile, our government has set a goal of reducing our reliance on resource revenues.” — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Speaking at a conference call to discuss fourth-quarter results, management said JBS will benefit from strong U.S. domestic demand for food products and steady meat trade flows to Asian markets, especially China.

JBS overall reported net income of 20.5 billion reais (C$5.24 billion) in 2021 on revenue of 350.7 billion reais, up 345 per cent from its 2020 net.

In Brazil, where the company is headquartered, cost pressure will continue to weigh on the Seara division as meat processors scramble to buy corn used as feed.

The scarcity during the inter-harvest period for corn, which will last through the middle of the year, is compounded by the war in Ukraine, which has caused grain prices to spike globally, affecting operations across all geographies.

Seara, which processes pork and poultry, has been unable to pass on higher costs onto consumers in Brazil, management said citing the weakness of Brazil’s economy. In the United States on the other hand, consumers have the purchasing power to continue buying, executives said.

Citing USDA data for 2022, JBS managers said beef and pork production will fall from the previous year in the United States, while poultry output will likely rise.

In the United States, where the company derives most of its revenue, the outlook for prices and margins remains positive. In Australia, herds are still recovering but the outlook is improving.

On Monday, JBS reported record sales last year on the back of the strength of its U.S. business, which is also buoyed by strong trade ties with China.

In its JBS USA beef unit, which includes its Canadian operations, the company reported adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of US$1.34 billion on net revenue of US$7.5 billion in its fourth quarter, and full-year 2021 EBITDA of US$4.89 billion, up 105 per cent on the year, on US$27.18 billion in revenue.

Regarding acquisitions JBS made in 2021, the company said companies acquired are performing better than expected.

— Reporting for Reuters by Ana Mano; includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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In a bid to focus on its higher-margin agriculture and construction machine businesses, where data content, autonomous technologies and alternative fuels are increasingly at core, CNH Industrial at the beginning of this year completed the spin-off of its truck, bus and engine operations, now separately listed as Iveco Group.

In slides prepared for the strategy presentation the group, which is controlled by Exor NV, the holding company of Italy’s Agnelli family, forecast net sales of between $20 billion and $22 billion in 2024, up from $17.8 billion last year (all figures US$).

CNH, which houses brands such as Case and New Holland, also guided for a margin on its adjusted operating profit (EBIT) of between 12 and 13 per cent in 2024 from 9.9 per cent in 2021, with that of its agriculture unit increasing to between 14.5 and 15.5 per cent from 12.3 per cent over the same period.

After buying Raven Industries last year for $2.1 billion to bolster its position in precision agriculture and autonomy, CNH will now focus on “disciplined” M+A activity, it added.

“We’re not buying to get bigger, our dollars are going to go towards driving organic growth,” CEO Scott Wine told analysts during the plan presentation.

“Disciplined M+A will be a key part of our strategy going forward.”

The company added it was seeing strong buyer interest for Raven’s engineered films and aerostar units, the two non-core business it plans to sell.

Chief digital officer Parag Garg said CNH was well placed to be leaders in autonomy and help customers throughout the entire farming cycle.

“Automation is a key strength for CNH Industrials tech strategy, already bringing benefits to farmers across the world across the whole cycle and helping build a backbone for it to deliver an autonomous future,” he told analysts.

— Reporting for Reuters by Giulio Piovaccari in Milan and Bianca Flowers in New York.

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