Some plants do this by putting a pause on productivity until the weather improves. In our recently published research, we discovered which genes control the “pause-and-play” mechanism of plant growth and are key for the survival of Canada’s crops.

Our goal is to understand the genetic factors that control growth so they can eventually be used to improve the ability of Canadian and global crops to handle weather stresses like drought, heat and cold temperatures.

A changing climate means extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. These findings could help create climate-resilient, genetically engineered crops that can recover faster and more efficiently after climate shocks.

These plants might be more likely to complete their life cycle and produce food during the harvest season, even after experiencing snowstorms, heat waves or flooding.

How plants handle weather stress

To get an idea of how plants tolerate stress, we measured root growth under a series of environmental stresses that Canadian and globally relevant crops commonly face throughout their life cycles. These included cold temperatures, salt stress and drought-like conditions. For our first experiments, we used thale cress (Arabidopsis thaliana).

Roots are particularly useful for this type of research because they grow continuously and respond quickly to environmental change.

By measuring root length over time, we could see when growth slowed down and when it resumed. We tested the root length in model organism.

We found that tested plants paused their root growth when exposed to cold or salt stress. When the stress was removed and the plants returned to normal growing conditions, root growth resumed as normal within about 24 hours.

However, plants did not respond the same way to every type of stress. We found that plants can recover from osmotic or drought stress, but it takes a little longer for them to do so. We referred to that dynamic as “pause and push” because plants need time to push through and recover.

To test whether the same stress response occurs in other plant species, we partnered with researchers from the United States Department of Agriculture. Together, we repeated the experiments using two wild grasses that are closely related to major cereal crops: brachypodium (Brachypodium distachyon) and annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum).

The grasses showed similar patterns of stress response and recovery. That suggests the mechanism that pauses and restarts growth may be shared across many plant species.

Pinpointing stress-recovery genes

Observing these dynamics is one thing, but how can scientists figure out what’s going on at the genetic and molecular level?

One common approach is to attach a fluorescent marker to genes of interest. Scientists often use a green fluorescent protein, originally discovered in jellyfish, that glows under specific light.

When this protein is inserted into a plant genome, researchers can fuse it to a gene of interest to see when and where that gene becomes active as it lights up inside cells.

We knew that the lack of growth during stress was due to a decrease in cell division, so we targeted genes related to cell division. Using fluorescent markers, we observed how the plant cells lit up differently in response to stress and stress recovery.

After counting thousands of cells for months, we could see certain genes were present in fewer cells when plants were under cold, drought and salt stress. However, within about 24 hours of being put back into optimal growth conditions, their numbers returned to normal.

One gene stood out in particular: Cyclin-dependent Kinase A;1 (CDKA;1). This gene helps regulate the cell cycle, the process that controls when cells divide and grow. A related gene named CDK1 exists in animals and humans, where it performs similar functions.

After performing more experiments targeting CDKA;1 in plants, we found that inhibiting the gene prevented plants from recovering from cold and salt stress. This suggests CDKA;1 plays a vital role in helping plants resume growth once environmental conditions stabilize.

Supporting food security

Our focus is on helping crops recover faster. We can’t stop heat waves or snowstorms. Pinpointing genes, however, can help plants recover from these events and still produce in time for harvest.

Understanding these genes opens the door to new approaches in crop breeding. Researchers could look for natural variants of these genes that already exist in crop populations. Traditional breeding programs could then select for varieties that recover faster after stress.

Another option is modern gene-editing tools such as CRISPR. This tool allows scientists to make precise changes to a plant’s DNA, including strengthening or adjusting genes involved in stress recovery.

As our research progresses, we hope to adjust the genetics of these Canadian crop varieties and create our own CRISPR-edited lines that are better able to cope with a changing climate.

Improving stress recovery could also expand where crops can be grown. Regions that currently experience unpredictable weather or short growing seasons may become more suitable for agriculture if crops can recover quickly after stress.

For Canada, this could help stabilize production in areas where climate variability is increasing. For the global food system, it could make crops better equipped to handle the environmental uncertainty expected in the coming decades.

By identifying the genes that allow plants to pause growth during stress and restart, we’re beginning to understand a critical survival strategy in plants. This knowledge can eventually help ensure crops continue to produce reliable harvests in a changing climate.

—Arif Ashraf is an assistant professor in the University of British Columbia’s department of botany. Olivia Hazelwood is a PhD student in the department of botany.

The post OPINION: Understanding how plants pause and restart growth can help develop climate-resilient crops appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

First, was the tornado outbreak over the United States a couple of weeks ago, and in particular, a F3 tornado that went through Michigan and actually crossed an ice-covered lake where it appears to pull up ice. If you haven’t seen the video, I would highly recommend taking a look.

The second item has been the record-shattering heat over a good chunk of the western and central U.S. I don’t have room to go into all the details, but a heat dome brought record temperatures for March to many locations with some of them seeing temperatures that would have broken April all-time records. With persistent arctic high pressure to our north, these extreme temperatures have been kept south of the border, but southern Minnesota did see a record high of 31 C.

Last on our list is an article that came out indicating that there is a good chance we will see the development of El Nino conditions across the Pacific later this year and it could be a very strong El Nino. We will look at that topic in April.

OK, now on to our main topic.

In our last article we looked at the composition of the atmosphere, breaking it down into a heterosphere and homosphere. Then we looked at the atmosphere from a temperature point of view and proceeded to break it down into four regions or layers — the thermosphere, mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere. We finished off by saying that one of these layers is responsible for most, if not all, of our weather. So, in this issue we will get back on track and extend our understanding of weather and the atmosphere by beginning our look at the atmosphere and surface energy balances.

To begin to understand how solar energy is spent as it reaches the Earth’s surface, and thus understand our surface energy budget, we need to look at the pathways in which solar energy can travel once it reaches the Earth’s surface.

Where the rays go

Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form of shortwave radiation. When this energy is turned into heat, it takes on the form of long-wave radiation. A good portion of both of these types of radiation passes through our atmosphere in the process known as transmission. When we are looking at shortwave radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, we call it insolation, and it is this insolation that is the driving force behind all of our weather.

Insolation is comprised of shortwave radiation that is transmitted directly to the ground, along with diffused or scattered radiation (indirect radiation). As shortwave radiation travels through our atmosphere some of it interacts with gas, dust, pollutants, water droplets and water vapour, changing the direction of the shortwave radiation — or scattering it. This scattering is what causes the sky to be blue during the day and why sunsets and sunrises take on a reddish hue.

The principle behind why we see these colours is known as Rayleigh scattering; named after the English physicist Lord Rayleigh, who came up this principle back in 1881. The principle relates wavelength to the size of the particles that are causing the scattering.

The general rule is: the shorter the wavelength, the greater the scattering; the longer the wavelength, the less the scattering.

Small gas molecules will scatter shorter wavelengths (remember with visible light, blues and violets have the shortest wavelengths, while oranges and reds have the longest wavelengths). So, since short waves are scattered the most and the molecules in our atmosphere scatter short waves, we end up having the lower atmosphere dominated by scattered blue waves.

At sunrise and sunset, the angle of the Sun is such that the insolation has to travel through much more atmosphere than during the day. The short blue wave lengths are still scattered, but now they encounter so much scattering only the longer orange and red wave lengths are left to reach our eyes — so we tend to see these colours.

Action and refraction

Another thing that happens to shortwave radiation as it enters the atmosphere is that it refracts. Refraction is the bending of light as it passes from one medium to the next. In this case, it is passing from the virtual vacuum of space to our dense atmosphere.

We have all seen examples of refraction. Rainbows are created when light passes through dense water drops causing the different wavelengths of light to refract at different rates. Mirages are another example of refraction. Most of us have experienced mirages on warm days along a highway when you stare down the highway and see what appears to be something floating above the road. In this case, it is the hot air above the highway that causes the light to be refracted.

One interesting note about refraction is that without it, the amount of daylight we receive would be about eight minutes less each day. When the sun sets or rises, the light refracts as it passes from space into our atmosphere. This refraction allows us to “see” the Sun when it is actually below the horizon. In the morning we see the sun rise four minutes before it actually moves above the horizon and at sunset we continue to see the Sun for four minutes after it has actually dropped below the horizon.

Next we will take a break from learning about the weather and take a look back at our extended winter to see how the numbers stacked up.

The post Why is the sky blue? appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Many of our most memorable fall and winter storms, whether they bring heavy snow, strong winds or a sudden drop in temperature, originate from areas of low pressure that form immediately to the east of the Rocky Mountains.

One of these development zones sits over Alberta, producing what we fondly call an “Alberta Clipper,” while another forms farther south over Colorado, responsible for the infamous “Colorado Low.”

So, let’s revisit why the lee of the Rockies is such a breeding ground for storm systems and why certain lows grow into major weather makers while others barely organize at all.

We’ve previously discussed how the jet stream, with its sweeping curves and shifting speed, helps shape regions of rising and sinking air. When the jet accelerates, rising motion and low pressure often develop beneath it. When it slows, sinking air and high pressure tend to form. While this plays a supporting role, it doesn’t fully explain why lows so often take shape immediately east of the mountains.

To understand that, meteorologists talk about vorticity, a measure of how much spin an air parcel has. There are several types — absolute, relative and the Earth’s own vorticity — but the fine details can be complicated enough to test anyone’s patience. Instead, we’ll focus on the main ideas needed to understand how lee-side lows develop.

As you move closer to the equator, the Earth’s vorticity decreases. Relative vorticity, meanwhile, refers to the air parcel’s own spin — counterclockwise rotation adds positive vorticity and clockwise rotation adds negative.

The important concept is that absolute vorticity, which combines both the Earth’s vorticity and the parcel’s relative vorticity, stays constant unless something forces it to change. So, if an air parcel moves southward and the Earth’s vorticity drops, the parcel must gain relative vorticity to maintain the balance. If it moves northward, the opposite happens. Increasing vorticity encourages cyclonic (low pressure) development, while decreasing vorticity promotes anticyclonic (high pressure) behaviour.

Upward bound

Now imagine Pacific air flowing eastward toward the Rockies. When it reaches the mountains, it is forced upward. At the same time, the tropopause acts like a rigid ceiling, preventing the air from expanding upward as much as it would like. The result is that the atmospheric column becomes squeezed vertically and must, in turn, spread out horizontally. When the column becomes shallower, its absolute vorticity decreases. Because the Earth’s vorticity hasn’t changed at that moment, the parcel’s relative vorticity also has to decrease. This gives the air an anticyclonic, or southeastward, turn as it flows over the mountains and spills down their eastern slopes.

Once the air begins drifting southeast of the Rockies, however, it is now entering a region of lower Earth vorticity. To compensate, its relative vorticity must increase. This creates a cyclonic bend in the flow, turning the air northeastward. Put together, these shifts form a trough of low pressure stretching along the lee of the mountains — a crucial first step in the development of an Alberta Clipper or Colorado Low.

The next question is why some of these troughs intensify dramatically while others fade. The Rockies themselves play a major part. These are among the tallest mountains on the continent, and their height forces a dramatic squeeze on the air column. The stronger the squeeze, the more the vorticity must adjust, and the deeper the resulting trough. But a trough alone is not enough to guarantee a storm. If it were, we would be dealing with a constant conveyor belt of major lows sweeping across the Prairies all winter long.

Other factors at play

To develop into a significant system, several additional ingredients must align. Cold Arctic air often slides southward along the mountains, while warmer, moister air waits to the south. When the developing low taps into both air masses, a strong temperature gradient forms which is a key source of energy for strengthening storms. The moisture adds even more fuel as it rises and condenses, releasing heat that intensifies the system. When these ingredients line up perfectly, an Alberta Clipper can quickly spin up and race eastward, bringing snow, wind, and rapid temperature changes.

Colorado Lows, meanwhile, owe much of their punch to their southern position. Like Clippers, they draw cold air from the north, but they also have access to warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico. Because the Gulf is one of the most reliable moisture sources for the continent, these systems sometimes tap into deep, sustained humidity. As this warm moist air rises and condenses, it releases a tremendous amount of heat, fueling rapid development. This is why Colorado Lows can grow into sprawling, slow-moving storms capable of affecting vast regions at once.

Still, not every setup produces a major event. A storm might have abundant moisture but lack Arctic air, limiting snowfall and reducing the system’s strength. A promising low might start strengthening only after it has moved east of us, missing the Prairies entirely. Other times, a lack of cold air shifts the storm track farther west, producing more rain than snow or allowing the system to slide too far south to have much impact.

With so many moving parts like the jet stream position, mountain effects, temperature contrasts, moisture supply and timing, it’s no surprise that forecasting these systems can be challenging.

Whether all the ingredients will come together for a major storm this winter remains an open question, but one thing is certain: the unique geography of the Rockies will continue shaping our storm season, just as it has for generations.

The post The lowdown on winter storms on the Prairies appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

From heat that pushed cities to their limits, to fire seasons that refused to end, to water arriving all at once or not at all, the planet delivered a steady stream of reminders about how quickly conditions can shift. What we are going to look at is a broad, worldwide view at some of the major weather themes of 2025.

Tinderbox conditions

Persistent heat was the headline almost everywhere. Long, unbroken stretches of high temperatures settled across Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and parts of North America. It seemed like summer arrived early, stayed late, and left little room for relief.

In several regions, temperatures climbed high enough that energy grids were stressed, and outdoor workers were pushed to their limits. What stood out wasn’t just the intensity of the heat, but how far it reached. Places accustomed to heat struggled just as much as regions that normally expect a break between hot spells. The message was simple: extreme heat is becoming a fixture, not a visitor.

Several major fire zones flared up early, and many burned long past their traditional endpoints. Canada and parts of Europe found themselves once again under thick smoke as sprawling fires worked their way through forests dried out by months of below-average rainfall.

Fire crews often battled a combination of high winds and low humidity, making suppression difficult. Smoke travelled thousands of kilometres, dimming skies far from the fires’ origin. At one point, Americans were getting mad at us for sending smoke their way.

Rain, rain, go away

On the opposite end of the spectrum, several countries had to navigate severe flooding. Monsoon rains in parts of South Asia were stronger than usual, pushing rivers into surrounding farmland and communities. Elsewhere, short-lived but powerful storm systems triggered flash floods that swept through urban corridors and mountain valleys. Some areas spent part of the year in deep drought and later dealt with swollen waterways.

These quick swings highlighted how modern flood risk increasingly depends on short-duration extremes rather than just long seasonal trends.

Tropical cyclone activity in 2025 delivered more intensity than volume. Some basins came in near or even a touch below their usual storm counts, yet the systems that did develop really packed a punch.

In the Atlantic, the season finished with 13 named storms and five hurricanes, and an impressive four of those reached major-hurricane strength. The standout was Hurricane Melissa, a powerful Category 5 that tore across Jamaica late in the season, and was the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world in 2025.

Melting away

Farther north, the Arctic continued down its long-term trajectory of ice loss. Winter’s peak ice coverage set yet another record low, and by the end of summer, the melt season had carved out one of the smallest minimums. With less ice comes warmer water, which means more open ocean for weather systems to draw energy from, this in turn results in subtle but meaningful bends in the jet stream, which eventually impacts our weather in ways we are just trying to figure out.

Northern communities felt the effects of the ice loss firsthand, with eroding shorelines, and shifting wildlife habits.

Human impact

Another issue that impacted the planet was air quality, with smoke, dust, heat and industrial pollution dragging it down. Cities on multiple continents issued repeated advisories, asking residents to limit outdoor activity when possible. Even regions far from wildfire zones experienced haze from distant burns. The growing overlap between heat waves and poor air quality emerged as one of the more troubling health storylines this year.

One of the new sciences that started to get recognized in 2025 was the rapid event-attribution groups. This is a science that analyze major heat and rainfall extremes to determine how much human-driven warming influenced them. Several high-profile studies concluded that some of the year’s worst episodes would have been far less likely in a cooler world. These findings added scientific weight to what many people already sensed: the background climate is shifting, and that shift is shaping the extremes we see.

Wild weather year

Taken together, the weather stories of 2025 paint a picture of a planet adjusting to a new rhythm, one marked by sharper extremes, quicker transitions and narrower margins. Heat waves that would have once been once-in-a-generation events are showing up every few years. Fire seasons behave less like defined “seasons” and more like extended periods of risk. Water arrives suddenly or not at all.

I once used an analogy of a blender. When you turn the blender on, the pattern remains fairly constant until you hit the next power level. Everything then jumps and becomes chaotic, eventually a new different pattern then emerges. I think we are starting to hit the next power level jump, we are seeing the chaotic weather patterns developing.

The question is, how long until a new stable pattern develops, and just what will be that pattern?

While the hope is always for a quieter year ahead, the lessons of 2025 will carry forward: awareness matters, preparation matters, and the stories we track now will help shape how we respond to whatever unfolds next.

The post YEAR IN REVIEW: 2025 a year of weather extremes appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• A strong Alberta clipper is forecasted to track across the southern Prairies, but the strength and track of the system remains to be seen.
• Alberta can widespread snow to southern and central regions on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Friday could bring another quick shot of snow.
• Saskatchewan looks set for blizzard conditions later on Wednesday.
• Manitoba can expect blizzard conditions to set in late Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
• Cold temperatures are expected to build in behind the lows in time for the weekend.

Overview

Well, so much for a quieter pattern. While we did see a short window of quieter weather last weekend, the parade of storm systems coming in off the Pacific continued. This was thanks in part to an upper atmospheric river, which brought copious moisture to the Pacific coast.

Looking back, the weather models were not that far off, but when we are talking about weather, a couple hundred kilometers can make a big difference.

Up until the weekend things went pretty well. Cold Arctic air settled in. This brought the coldest air of the season to parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. After that it started to fall apart a bit.

The area of low pressure, which was forecasted to move in off the Pacific and then track across the northern Prairies, developed as forecasted. However, it was a a bit stronger than expected and it also tracked further south. This brough snow and freezing rain to the central Prairies early this week along with the forecasted mild temperatures.

In fact, the temperatures ended up being significantly warmer than expected with daytime highs pushing +5 C. However, most regions saw less than 12 hours of above freezing temperatures.

More weather coverage: Predicting Manitoba winter snowfall

Now we come to the current situation across the Prairies. This looks to be a potentially difficult forecast period.

Currently a strong Alberta Clipper has developed and is forecasted to track across the southern Prairies. The weather models are still bouncing back and forth on both the strength of the system and its exact track. Latest model runs have the low tracking from around Calgary on Wednesday morning and then into northeastern North Dakota by early Thursday morning.

Most of the precipitation will fall in a narrow band just to the north of the low track, so the exact track of the low is important. The strength of the low is also important as to how windy it will be and how weather systems will behave after the low passes by. Strong areas of low pressure can alter the overall weather pattern, which makes it difficult to accurately forecast what will happen once they pass by.

With that said, the weather models are showing a second, but weaker, area of low-pressure tacking across the southern and central Prairies on Friday. This should bring another quick round of snow.

Over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will build in. This will bring a return to below average temperatures, especially over the central and eastern Prairies.

In the days leading up to Christmas, the weather models are showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure tracking across the south-central Prairies. These may bring more clouds than sun, seasonable temperatures, along with the chance of flurries or light snow.

Alberta

This forecast period will start with a strong area of low pressure moving in from southern B.C. This low looks to bring widespread snow to southern and central regions on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Currently it looks like southern regions could see up to 5 cm with amounts further north possibly pushing 20 cm before the system moves out.

A second area of low pressure is forecasted to push in from the west on Friday. This low looks to take a more northerly route, which will result in central and northern regions seeing a quick 5 cm of snow as it zips though.

Behind this low, cool Arctic air will push southwards bringing a return to slightly below average temperatures.

Early next week the weather models are showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure pushing in from the Pacific over central regions.

Confidence in these systems is low. Should they materialize, expect partly to mostly-cloudy skies in the days leading up to Christmas with occasional flurries or periods of light snow with seasonable temperatures.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Just like Alberta, these regions are starting this forecast period off with a strong area of low pressure moving in from southern Alberta. Snow is forecasted to develop in a narrow band along a warm front, which is stretching eastwards from the low.

Across Saskatchewan, expect snow to develop around noon over central regions while southern regions may be warm enough for either wet snow or rain.

The precipitation will transition to all snow later in the day as the main area of low pressure moves through. Latest model indications are for central regions to see upwards of 20 to 25 centimeters of snow with southern regions seeing 5 to 15 cm. Winds look to be strong with blizzard conditions very likely.

Conditions look to improve overnight Wednesday with sunny skies moving on Thursday as arctic high pressure briefly builds in.

Across Manitoba, the snow looks to move in by late in the afternoon on Wednesday. Where the heaviest snow will set up is still up in the air. Currently indications are it will be slightly north of the Trans-Canada highway but any small nudge to the storms track will change that.

More weather coverage: Prairie winter snowfall forecast 2025-2026

Snow looks to continue overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. This is expected to bring around 5 cm of snow near the border, increasing to 20+ cm under the main storm track. As with Saskatchewan, winds look to become very strong with blizzard conditions developing during the evening and lasting possibly into Thursday morning.

A second weaker area of low pressure is forecasted to track across the central Prairies on Saturday. Most of the snow from this system will be over central regions of both Saskatchewan and Manitoba but southern regions will likely see another couple of centimeters. Cold Arctic high pressure will then build in behind this low bring below average temperatures and clearing skies over the weekend.

For the first half of next week, the weather models are showing two weak areas of low-pressure tracking across the central Prairies. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but should it materialize, these regions can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, near average temperatures, and a chance of some flurries or occasional periods of light snow.

The post Prairie forecast: First blizzard of the year, then quiet? appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

We’ll start off with probabilities, as lately I have been constantly reminded of how our weather memories tend to grow over time, but long-term climate records give a clearer picture, which is something that often surprises people.

What is ‘normal’ snowfall?

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s climate normals make it possible to compare snowfall behaviour across the region, without analyzing each province separately. Despite differences in terrain and storm tracks, the Prairie provinces show remarkably similar snowfall probabilities. Manitoba and Alberta align closely, while Saskatchewan tends to be slightly drier, recording fewer days with total snowfall above five centimetres.

To understand how much snow typically falls, we first look at single-day snowfall. In Winnipeg, a strong representative station thanks to its long period of record, there is a 90 per cent chance of seeing around 30 snowfall days per winter. About half of winters see closer to 45, and only once in roughly 100 years will that number reach 70. A snowfall day simply means any measurable amount.

On those days, about 90 per cent produce at least a light dusting (0.2 cm). Roughly half exceed two centimetres, which means half fall short of that mark. Days with five centimetres or more occur only five to 10 per cent of the time, while 10-centimetre days show up once or twice in a typical winter. A single-day snowfall over 30 cm is extremely rare — around a 0.1 per cent probability, or once every 20 to 40 years.

But single-day totals don’t tell the whole story. Many Prairie storms extend across several days, so looking at snowfall events — defined as snow falling on two or more consecutive days — gives a better idea of what we experience on the ground. Winnipeg averages about 20 such events per winter, with around half of winters reaching the upper-20s. Only about once per century would an area see 40 or more snowfall events.

Most multi-day events remain small. Ninety per cent bring at least half a centimetre, and about half exceed two centimetres. When we move into higher totals, probabilities shift noticeably compared to single-day snowfall. About 30 per cent of multi-day events exceed five cm. Totals of 10 cm or more appear roughly 10 per cent of the time — usually once or twice per winter. These are the systems that commonly disrupt travel and require extended cleanup.

The largest events, multi-day accumulations of more than 30 cm, are still uncommon, but less rare than 30-plus cm in a single day. They occur roughly once every 200 events, or about once every decade. These storms tend to be remembered not because of a dramatic single burst, but because of steady snow, drifting, and lingering impacts.

It’s important to remember that these figures represent long-term averages. Statistics don’t prevent several large storms from happening in one season, nor do they guarantee one will occur within a decade. Weather clusters naturally, and our memories often exaggerate past extremes.

Winter follows warm November

Now on to our monthly weather review and our look ahead to see what the next couple of months might have in hold for us. November was a warm month right across the Prairies with temperatures ranging between 1.6 C above-average in Edmonton to 3.8 C above-average in Winnipeg. The warm spot was Calgary with an actual mean monthly temperature of -0.4 C with cold spot going to Peace River at -5.4 C.

Looking at precipitation for the month, Manitoba, eastern Saskatchewan, and northwestern Alberta saw a dry month. The driest location was Brandon with only 2.7 mm of water equivalent precipitation reported. The wet spot was Calgary, which reported 16.7 mm, about four mm above the long-term average.

Looking back at the different weather forecasts or predictions, both the Old Farmers’ Almanac, and Canadian CanSIPS model predicted a warmer than average start to the winter. Unfortunately, neither of these forecasts got the precipitation forecast correct as the Old Farmers’ Almanac called for above average amounts and the CanSIPS model called for near average amounts.

Winter snow predictions

Looking at the latest predictions and model runs, and as usual starting off with the almanacs, the Old Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a warmer than average December and January with above average precipitation. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac, which unfortunately will no longer be with us after next year, is calling for cold and snowy over the next couple of months, with clipper systems and a late January blizzard.

Next up, the weather models. The CFS model is calling for a brief warm-up to start December with colder than average temperatures moving in during the second half of the month. These cold temperatures are then forecasted to moderate as we move into January with most locations expected to see near to slightly above average temperatures. Its precipitation forecasts are calling for near average amounts in both months, with western Alberta having the greatest chance of seeing above average amounts.

Looking at the CanSIPS model, it is calling for near to slightly below average temperatures across the eastern Prairies in December with western regions seeing above average values. January is forecasted to be cold with all areas expected to see well below average temperatures. Precipitation is forecasted to be near average right across the Prairies in both months. The European model, or ECMWF, is calling for near average temperatures over the next two months with above average precipitation. NOAA is also calling for above average precipitation over the next two months but is predicting below average temperatures.

Lastly, my two cents. I think we are going to see near average temperatures and precipitation in December followed by below average temperatures and above average precipitation in January.

Now, as usual, we have to sit back and see what Mother Nature will throw at us.

The post Prairie winter snowfall forecast 2025-2026 appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The losses to crops such as cotton and soybean are expected to slow agricultural growth, boost farmers’ debt and cap rural consumption, which had been set to rise after New Delhi slashed taxes on hundreds of consumer items.

“We had hoped to harvest 10 to 12 quintals of soybean per acre, but now we’ll be lucky to get 2 to 3 quintals — and even that will require significant additional expenses,” said farmer Kishore Hangargekar. A quintal is a unit equivalent to 100 kg (220 lb).

He was speaking after two days of unrelenting rain flooded his fields and submerged his crops in the district of Dharashiv in the western state of Maharashtra.

Related: India and Canada agree on new roadmap for relations.

Until then, the soybean crop had been thriving, and farmers were readying for harvest.

The reduction in yields from excessive rainfall is likely to halve agricultural growth to three per cent to 3.5 per cent in the December quarter, down from 6.6 per cent a year earlier, said Garima Kapoor, economist at Mumbai-based Elara Securities.

Summer-sown crops such as soybean, cotton, rice, pulses and vegetables mature from September, a month that saw rains of 15 per cent above average this year, with some regions getting as much as 115 per cent more than normal.

While agriculture contributes just 18 per cent to India’s economy of nearly US$4 trillion, almost half its population of 1.4 billion relies on farming to earn a living.

No respite from rain

Now farmers are scrambling to harvest summer crops ahead of winter sowing set to begin next month, but more untimely rain forecast this week could delay planting and damage late-maturing summer crops.

The rain-damaged crops are earning prices well below the government’s minimum support price, as quality has deteriorated.

“Traders are buying the damaged crops for throwaway prices, and we have no choice but to sell,” said farmer Sachin Nanaware, who sold his soybean at a rate of 3,200 rupees ($50.62) for 100 kg, below the government-fixed rate of 5,328 rupees.

Nanaware said he had hoped to buy a motorcycle and a television, but is now worried about repaying his bank loan.

The excessive rain has boosted soil moisture for winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpea, but many farmers say they lack funds for seeds and fertilisers.

“We need money to buy seeds and fertilisers and to prepare the land,” said farmer Chaya Jawale as she collected cotton bolls brought down from plants prematurely by the rain.

“So, we have no choice but to mortgage our gold jewellery.”

Damage to soybean and cotton crops is expected to boost India’s vegetable oil imports in the marketing year from November by 1.5 million tons to a record 18 million, says industry analyst Thomas Mielke of Oil World.

— Additional reporting by Ira Dugal

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One weather model was not ready at that time, and that was the Canadian CanSIPS model. Its latest forecast is calling for near- to above-average temperatures in September and October, with western regions being the warmest compared to average and eastern regions being the coolest compared to average. November temperatures are predicted to be near-average.

Their precipitation forecast calls for near-average amounts across all three months, with northern Alberta seeing below-average amounts in September.

In this issue, we are going to wrap up our look at extreme rainfall by looking at the different weather patterns that tend to be associated with these rainfall events. We’ll also examine how changing weather patterns may contribute to these events.

Extreme or heavy rainfall can happen from many conditions, but often it is a combination of specific conditions that leads to record breaking rainfalls. For example, you could have training thunderstorms, but if there is not much available moisture then you will not get extreme rainfall. You could have a strong area of low pressure, with lots of moisture and plenty of instability — but it if is moving fast then rainfall totals will not be that extreme.

Looking at all the one-day rainfall records, they all occur in either June, July or August, which just happens to be thunderstorm season. Thunderstorms that bring extreme rainfall usually have several conditions that come together to produce extreme rainfall. There will be plenty of moisture, atmospheric instability, some form of front providing lift, and then slow speeds or training of storms.

The two main conditions that are almost always needed to be present for extreme rainfall are plenty of moisture and slow movement of systems.

With changes that our atmosphere is currently undergoing due to a warming planet, these two conditions look to become more prevalent. A warmer atmosphere and ocean is leading to an increase in the available atmospheric moisture. Now this doesn’t mean we won’t have dry conditions. Sure, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, but if the atmosphere is dry that means the increased heat will be able to pull more moisture out of a region through evapotranspiration.

Overall, it looks like the atmosphere can and will hold more moisture and that moisture will be available to produce rainfall. There is also emerging evidence that a warming planet is leading to a slowing down of weather systems and the development of more blocking patterns. Blocking patterns are when certain configurations of highs and lows develop that tend to not move much, or they block the movement of weather systems — thus the term blocking pattern.

We often remember blocking patterns when they bring long periods of warm dry weather, but they can also bring long periods of cool wet weather. It all depends on where you are in relationship to the block.

Why the slow down? To put it into simple terms, as the planet warms, the poles warm significantly faster than the equatorial regions. This lessens or weakens the temperature gradient between these two regions. It is this temperature gradient that is the driving force behind most of the atmospheric circulations such as the jet stream. As they weaken systems will move slower and the pattern become more meandering.

Think of a river. If it is flowing down a steep hill it tends to stay relatively straight, when it is flowing slowly across a flat region, like the Prairies, it meanders. The same thing happens with the flow of the atmosphere and when it gets curvy it can get stuck in that curve until that curve breaks off — much like rivers and oxbow lakes.

Are we going to continue to see a continuation of the slowdown and more meandering and blocking patterns in the future? I think so. Chances are we will see more of the shifting between dry and wet patterns. Sometimes it will be within short time frames — dry one month and wet the next — and other times over longer periods where we will see a season or year or two that are dry, followed by just as long wet periods.

This is what is making long-range weather forecasts much more difficult. Weather models rely partially on past experience — what happened in the past when a certain weather pattern was present. The problem now is that the atmosphere is not behaving the same way as it did in the past, and in my opinion, things are going to get more uncertain over the next few decades.

In upcoming issues, I’d like to explore fall frosts, as a few regions have already experienced their first, and will revisit the topic of folklore and what it might tell us about the upcoming winter.

If you have questions about either topic, I’d be glad to hear from you. Feel free to email me: dmgbezte@gmail.com. I’d love to hear from you about these or any other weather topics you’d like me to cover.

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A couple of issues back, we discussed how we get large undulations of cold air sagging southwards from the North Pole (we are just talking about the Northern Hemisphere). These undulations create something called long waves and at any given moment there are usually three to six long waves circling our planet. These waves usually move steadily along giving us periodic shots of warm and cool air with unsettled conditions developing during the transitions. We also learned that sometimes these long waves can get stuck, and we refer to this as a blocking pattern.

So let’s continue our look at blocking patterns and heatwaves. But first I figured we should first define what a heat wave is, then look at the criteria that Environment Canada uses to define heat events.

Looking at several different definitions, I found a couple that were good: a generalized one and an official one from the World Meteorological Organization.

“A basic definition of a heat wave implies that it is an extended period of unusually high atmosphere-related heat stress, which causes temporary modifications in lifestyle and which may have adverse health consequences for the affected population.” – University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, N.C.

“A heatwave occurs when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature of (five degrees Celsius), based on the normal climate of the region.” – WMO

These basically state that while a heat wave is a meteorological event (abnormally warm temperatures), it is the impact that the heat has on people that is key.

Heat warning thresholds

If you check Environment Canada’s website for a list of criteria for public weather alerts, you would find the following heat-related alerts for the Prairie provinces. In southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, a heat warning or advisory is issued when two or more consecutive daytime maximum temperatures are expected to reach 32 C or warmer, and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to remain at or above 16 C.

Or, when two or more consecutive days of humidex values are expected to reach 38 C or higher. In southern Alberta, it is the same criteria as southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but without the mention of humidex values as this region rarely sees high humidity.

Over more northern regions, the values in Manitoba are two or more days with daytime highs warmer than 29 C (and 16 C or warmer at night) or humidex values greater than 34 C. In northern Saskatchewan and Alberta, it is 29 C during the day and 14 C at night.

What causes a heat wave?

We now know the criteria, but what conditions need to come together to give us a heat wave? There are several different scenarios that can come together to give us conditions that will prompt a heat warning, but what I want to look at are the conditions that lead to not just a couple of days of heat, but the big heat waves that last for several days.

To get the long lasting, intense, record-breaking heat waves, a couple of meteorological events must come together. First, we usually need a blocking pattern to develop, and as I pointed out in the last issue, the most typical pattern is the Omega block. This pattern has upper-level lows sitting to our west and east with a ridge of high pressure in the middle. This is important because this pattern, as the name suggests, can become fairly stable and tend to sit in one place for several days allowing for temperature to build up.

The ridge of high pressure allows for a couple of things to happen. First, the descending air inhibits the growth of clouds. This in turn means plenty of sunshine, and in the summer, sunshine means heat. On their own, sunny skies do not mean a heat wave, we see plenty of sunny days in a row without experiencing a heat wave. The next part has to do with the strength of the high. When the high is strong we get very strong subsidence or sinking of air. As this air is pushed downwards, it hits the ground and is compressed. Now, anyone who has used an air compressor or even just a hand pump knows that as you compress air, you are forcing the air particles closer together, this in turn increases the rate of particle collisions, and these collisions transfer energy which we feel as heat. Don’t believe me? Grab a bike pump, give it 20 or so pumps and then feel the bottom of the pump, it’s hot due to the compression of air.

So, when there is a strong ridge of high pressure over us, the compression of sinking air can dramatically heat the air and give us some truly warm days. Now, if the upper high is not that warm, then all this compressing and heating of the air won’t do that much to give us record-breaking temperatures. If the upper high is warm to begin with, then this compression of air, combined with the additional heating of the sun, can really push the temperatures up. This is something we have seen over the last several years. We have been seeing some remarkable warm days even when the upper high has not been that strong. This is largely due to a generally warmer atmosphere. I’ve caught myself several times saying after a particularly hot day or two that the atmospheric setup should not have led to such warm temperatures.

So far this summer we have not seen strong blocking patterns develop, but that doesn’t mean it still can’t happen. In the next issue I promise we will begin out look at extreme rainfall events.

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So that will have to wait until next week. Sorry about that.

That means for this week we will be continuing our look at severe summer weather. And as much as I want to look at heavy rainfall — that’s looking at you, Alberta — I am going to stick to my original plans, which was examining straight-line winds in thunderstorms.

The last time I wrote about this was a couple of years ago, and in that article, I discussed how global temperatures once again broke record levels. Well, looking at the latest data, it shows that May 2025 was the second warmest on record. Looking back, this May was only the second month in the past 23 months that did not surpass the 1.5 C pre-industrial threshold, which means there are some signs of cooling of our overheated planet, but not much. Computer models are still showing that 2025 will come in as the second or third warmest year on record.

Now on to this week’s severe summer weather topic — straight line winds. While most of us know that tornadoes can produce the most powerful winds on Earth and they can be truly awe inspiring to see, not very many of us will actually experience one. What I can pretty much guarantee, is that if you live on the Prairies, you will experience a thunderstorm that produces very strong straight-line winds. Sometimes these winds can be so strong and devastating that their damage is attributed to a tornado, and the only way to determine whether or not the damage was caused by straight line winds, or a tornado, is to look at the pattern of damage that has occurred. With tornadoes, the damage will be more random, with trees and objects broken and thrown in different directions due to the swirling air. With straight line winds nearly all the damage is unidirectional, or rather, in one direction.

Nearly all straight-line winds, or at least the really damaging ones, occur near the leading edge of a thunderstorm. Thunderstorms are made up of areas of updrafts and downdrafts. The updrafts are easy to understand, as they are the regions where air is moving upwards due to either being warmer than the air around them or by being forced upwards as horizontally moving air is deflected upwards by something like a cold front. Downdrafts are a little more difficult to understand, but only a little bit.

When a thunderstorm is moving in, we can often get that first big blast of wind that causes everyone to run for shelter and announces the arrival of the storm as the clouds open up and rain begins to pour down. There are two main causes of these winds. First, you have to imagine all the air that is rising up to the top of the storm has to go somewhere. In a strong storm, an overhead jet stream is trying to vent all this air away, but often not all of this accumulating air can get vented away. Eventually the amount of excess air that builds up becomes large and heavy enough, or the updraft weakens, and that air begins to fall back towards the ground.

Now combine this falling air with the rain that is also falling. As the rain falls from the storm, that rain is pushing on the air around it, much like when you spray something with a garden hose or if you have ever visited a big waterfall. This downward moving air hits the ground and then has to flow somewhere. The area of falling rain acts like a wall preventing much of this falling air from flowing back into the storm, so instead most of it is funnelled or pushed out in front of the storm.

These downbursts can be short lived, travelling and lasting only a short time. Or they can continue for long distances as the thunderstorm travels. These long-lived events are known as a derecho. While not that common in Canada, they do occur. Peak wind speeds in these downbursts can routinely hit over 100 kilometres per hour with some gusts peaking at over 200 km/h.

The worst derecho on record in Canada occurred in May 2022 in southern Ontario and Quebec. Winds speeds were recorded as high as 190 km/hr along a path that extended for nearly 1,000 km and took nearly nine hours to play out. Damages exceeded $750 million, making it the sixth-most costly Canadian weather disaster on record. Sadly, 12 people were killed, mostly from falling trees.

If you have lived through a few strong thunderstorms, you know that out in front of the thunderstorm is not the only place where strong straight-line winds can occur. Often, we can get very strong winds in the middle of the storm.

One of the reasons for these strong winds is the jet stream or strong upper-level winds. As you know, strong thunderstorms often need strong upper-level winds to help vent all the rising air. Occasionally, these strong winds can get caught up in a strong downdraft and they basically get deflected towards the surface. If they make it all the way down to the surface, they must spread out and can flow in several different directions depending on the angle that they came in from. This is why this type of straight-line wind can be confused with tornadoes, because these winds can often seem more chaotic than the winds that preceded the thunderstorm.

In the next issue, it is time once again to look back at last month’s weather. That’s right, another month will have come and gone, and we are now halfway through the year! As usual, we will also revisit the different long-range forecasts to see if anything has changed in the different outlooks.

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