Statistics Canada on Wednesday began releasing data from its 2021 Census of Agriculture, and the agency’s changes to the definition of a “farm” — and a noteworthy new entrant not included in the listed mix of Canadian cash crops — make some, but not all, direct comparisons to the numbers from 2016 or earlier censuses more difficult.

StatsCan noted a “significant conceptual change” for 2021 in which a “farm” or an “agricultural holding” now refers to “a unit that produces agricultural products and reports revenues or expenses for tax purposes to the Canada Revenue Agency.” In 2016 and earlier censuses, a “farm” was “an agricultural operation that produced at least one agricultural product intended for sale.”

That change, StatsCan said, “may result in farms being classified differently across farm types than in previous censuses,” so “comparisons with earlier census results should be interpreted with caution.”

The 2021 census counted 189,874 farms in Canada, for a “moderate” decrease of 1.9 per cent from 2016, on total area of 153,687,771 acres, down 3.2 per cent. The decline in the number of farms was the smallest in 25 years, StatsCan said.

Of the 2021 total, 34.3 per cent of farms are in oilseeds and grains, followed by 20.9 per cent in beef cattle and feedlots; those two sectors combined account for 82.7 per cent of total farm area.

Many farms, StatsCan said in Wednesday’s report, have consolidated and become increasingly larger both in terms of sales and number of employees. “Conversely, smaller and mid-sized farms are declining in Canada, thereby impacting the rural landscape and profile of Canadian regions.”

The proportion of farms with sales of $1 million or more in 2020 was 9.9 per cent, up from 7.2 per cent in 2015, StatsCan said.

And in 2021, farms reporting at least $2 million in sales accounted for over half of Canada’s total farm operating revenues, at a share of 51.5 per cent, up from 41.5 per cent in 2016.

Farm operating revenues in Canada totalled $87 billion in 2020 against expenses of $72.2 billion, StatsCan said. On average, for every dollar in revenues, farms incurred 83 cents in expenses. Farms classified as oilseed and grain farming were the most profitable, with an expenses-to-revenues ratio of 0.76; Sheep and goat farms had the highest ratio, at 0.97.

Older on average

The average age of Canada’s farm operators rose to 56 in 2021, from 55 in 2016. The median age of farm operators, meanwhile, is 58, up from 56. In 2021, 60.5 per cent of farm operators were age 55 or older, up from 54.5 per cent in 2016; Canada’s share of young (under age 35) operators, meanwhile, is 8.6 per cent, down from 9.1 in 2016.

StatsCan suggested that aging trend, as well as the “challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic,” may have played a role in an increased proportion of farms in Canada reporting a succession plan — now at 12 per cent, up from 8.4 in 2016.

The census also points to a continuing decline in the number of farm operators, at 262,455 in 2021, down from 271,935 in 2016. reported from the previous census. In 2016, there were 271,935 farm operators, and by 2021 the number decreased to 262,455.

StatsCan also noted that its count of female operators is up for the first time since 1991, at 79,795 in 2021, from 77,970 in 2016.

The number of farm operators working off the farm in 2020, at 125,280, or 47.7 per cent, up 3.8 per cent from 2015. Of that number, full-time off-farm workers made up 66 per cent, down from 68.1 per cent in 2015.

The new census also shows a less-than-surprising climb in farmland values, with contributing factors including “strong commodity prices, low interest rates and a growing demand for housing in urban areas.”

When measured in constant 2021 dollars, the reported total market value of land and buildings for farms in Canada increased by 22.7 per cent to $603.8 billion in 2021 compared to 2016. Market value of owned land, buildings and fixed equipment increased by 19.1 per cent to $420.9 billion in 2021, while market value of rented land and buildings was up 32 per cent at $182.9 billion.

Under glass

Among farm practices, StatsCan noted an uptick in use of sustainable land practices such as in-field winter grazing or feeding, rotational grazing, winter cover crops and shelterbelts, at 64.5 per cent of farms in 2020, up from 53.7 in 2015.

In 2021, 5,658 farms reported growing organic products, making up three per cent of total farms, up from 2.2 per cent in 2016.

Also, 11.9 per cent of farms reported “some form of renewable energy production” such as solar power or others in 2021, up from 5.3 per cent in 2016. Other technologies that “became more prominent” in 2020 included automated guidance steering systems (up 28.2 per cent from 2015) and geographic information system mapping (up 58.6 per cent).

Farms in Canada also reported a 23.2 per cent increase in total greenhouse area to 330.5 million square feet in 2021. Of that total, 66.5 per cent was in fruit and vegetables.

That count, however, doesn’t include weed. StatsCan noted the data it released Wednesday excludes cannabis operations — on which the agency in 2021 gathered Census of Agriculture data for the first time. It said it will release its Census of Agriculture data on cannabis operations separately later this year.

StatsCan’s quarterly data on farm cash receipts and annual data on net farm income, meanwhile, have included cannabis production since it was legalized in 2018. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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While the March report only saw minor revisions, the government agency cautioned that “the economic outlook, for the world and Canadian grain markets, is particularly uncertain due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and to lesser extent the continued domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.”

Projected canola ending stocks for both the current marketing year and 2022-23 were lowered by 50,000 tonnes, to 400,000 and 600,000 tonnes respectively. Wheat ending stocks for both crop years were also lowered, to an estimated 3.8 million for 2021-22 and 4.7 million for the new crop year.

Wheat exports for 2021-22 were up by 200,000 from the February forecast, at 15.55 million tonnes. For 2022-23, wheat exports were revised higher by 250,000 tonnes, at 21.55 million tonnes.

Statistics Canada releases its first acreage estimates of the year at the end of April, with the latest stocks data out in early May.

Tables: March estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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According to the report released Tuesday, last December’s total domestic stocks for dry peas, chickpeas, lentils and soybeans all declined from the year earlier.

Those followed the lead of other crops primarily grown in Western Canada, while corn, which is largely grown in Ontario, was the only one of Canada’s principal field crops whose stocks increased compared to December 2020.

Total stocks for dry peas were 1.63 million tonnes last December, a precipitous drop of 42.6 per cent from 2.84 million in December 2020. On-farm stocks (1.32 million tonnes) and commercial stocks (310,000 tonnes) declined by 46.7 per cent and 13.9 per cent, respectively. Last December’s total was the lowest at that time of year since 2007.

In total, Canada had 1.18 million tonnes of lentils in stock last December, down 36.2 per cent from 1.85 million one year earlier and its lowest total since 2009, the last time stocks fell below one million tonnes. On-farm stocks declined 38.5 per cent to one million tonnes, while commercial stocks declined 13.6 per cent to 146,200 tonnes.

Canadian chickpea stocks were at 292,000 tonnes in December 2021, a 29.3 per cent drop from 413,000 tonnes from the year before. On-farm stocks were down 30.6 per cent to 267,000 tonnes, while commercial stocks were only down 7.1 per cent to 26,000 tonnes. Chickpea stocks were at their lowest December total since 2018.

Data for StatsCan’s report came from its December 2021 field crop survey, conducted on 8,600 Canadian farmers from Dec. 14, 2021 to Jan. 18, 2022.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Nevertheless, they quantified just how severe last summer’s drought was in Western Canada.

Canola production for the 2021-22 marketing year was estimated to be 12.595 million tonnes — a 1.5 per cent decline from September’s estimate of 12.782 million, but a 35.4 per cent drop from 2020-21’s total of 19.485 million. It would be Canada’s lowest annual production of canola since 2007.

Yields fell 40.2 per cent to 25 bushels per acre, erasing the effect of an 8.2 per cent rise in harvested area to 22.3 million acres.

MarketsFarm expert Bruce Burnett had pegged canola for lower production, as he had anticipated higher abandonment rates. StatsCan’s estimate was in line with pre-report trade estimates, which ranged from 11.5 million to 13 million tonnes.

“StatCan didn’t reduce abandonment for at least most of the major crops. That was probably my big surprise,” Burnett said. “Canola abandonment remained the same and yields were down slightly, so that gives us that slightly smaller number.”

Unlike those for most principal Canadian crops, production estimates for durum wheat fell sharply due to a high rate of abandonment. StatsCan projected 2.654 million tonnes, a 25.1 per cent fall from September’s estimate of 3.545 million and a 59.2 per cent drop from 2020-21’s total of 6.571 million. Pre-report trade estimates had durum between 3.2 million and 3.7 million tonnes.

“It was the one commodity StatCan made a substantive change in abandoned area,” Burnett said. “They increased that number to 3.6 per cent and yields dropped. If you look at the yields, they’re a little bit more in line with what Alberta Agriculture and Saskatchewan Agriculture would say in terms of their estimates on durum.

“It makes the durum situation extremely tight… It basically means that our export program this year will struggle in terms of how much durum we’ll be able to export this year.”

The estimate for total wheat production held mostly steady at 21.652 million tonnes — only 0.3 per cent lower than September’s, but 38.5 per cent lower than the 2020-21 production total of 35.183 million tonnes. Pre-report trade estimates had total wheat production between 19.3 million and 22 million tonnes.

Burnett added that barley, whose production estimate declined 2.7 per cent from September’s estimate to 6.948 million tonnes, was similar to canola in that production did not fall as much anticipated, but was still 35.3 per cent lower than the 10.741 million tonnes produced in 2020-21.

Oats was one of the few crops to see its December production estimate increase compared to September, but only by one per cent, to 2.606 million tonnes. However, the estimate was still 43.1 per cent smaller than its 2020-21 total of 4.576 million.

“We are facing very tight supplies and very low ending stocks this crop year,” Burnett said.

Corn, soybeans

Canadian corn production came in slightly below StatsCan’s earlier estimate but still ended up above the year-ago level. Meanwhile, the opposite was true for soybeans, with production revised higher from September, but still down on the year.

Corn production was projected to be 13.984 million tonnes for the 2021-22 marketing year. Just like for most crops in the latest report, StatsCan reduced its own projection for corn production by 2.7 per cent compared to September’s estimate. Despite the decrease, corn production is still projected to be 3.1 per cent higher than in 2020-21.

StatsCan revised its estimate for soybean production to exceed the six million-tonne mark at 6.272 million for 2021-22. The agency’s new projection is 6.6 per cent higher than its September estimate of 5.886 million tonnes. However, projections will fall just shy of the 2020-21 total of 6.359 million tonnes, representing a decline of 1.4 per cent.

Table: Quick summary of the Statistics Canada December principal field crop production estimates for 2021-22. September estimates, year-ago numbers and pre-report trade estimates included for comparison. Production in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Statistics Canada.

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In recent days, canola has been taking a series of hard hits, which have pulled the January and March contracts under $1,000.

“The crushers are now booked out to February-March. So when they started to sell, they also widened their basis levels,” he said. “When they do that, it’s a signal that they don’t have the sales.”

During trading Monday, several of the active months experienced drops of $50 per tonne or more. At the close, the January retreated about $40 and the March lost around $38.

“When you see the futures tumble and the basis levels drop, that suggests we have seen a major peak,” Anderson added, suggesting the March could climb to $980 per tonne – if any news was bullish enough. But the analyst expects canola to keep pulling back, with support at $900 per tonne.

The declines in canola and other edible oils are due to the pullbacks in global crude oil prices, he said. Crude has fallen largely because of fear of the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 stifling demand.

“A lot of damage has been done to these markets. The collapse in crude oil is really meaningful. The crude oil market is now a bear market. The key support as I see it is US$60 per barrel,” Anderson said. “The king of commodities has spooked the other commodities.”

That said, the analyst pointed to the current prices for canola and other grains as still be very good.

For any about-face for canola to be sustained, Anderson said fresh bullish news is required.

“That would have to be South American weather. If South America is normal, then the path of least resistance is downward,” he said.

At the centre of that continent’s weather is a La Nina, which has already caused some concerns over dry conditions in parts of Argentina and Brazil. A range of projections has put the coming soybean crop in Brazil at a record-shattering 144 million tonnes, while Argentina is set for a hefty 50 million tonnes.

Anderson said if those big crops come in, then there’s little hope for canola or any edible oils to make skyrocketing gains. He stressed that Chicago soyoil has lost about 10 per cent over the last couple of weeks and without its support, there’s little chance of canola rising to fresh highs.

On another note, market expectations ahead of the Statistics Canada report on Dec. 3 have pegged this year’s canola production at 11.5 million to 13 million tonnes. Previously, the federal agency called for 12.78 million tonnes, after initial projections from earlier this year set hopes at around 20 million tonnes.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The November canola contract has support at $850 per tonne and when it bumps up to around $900 it’s quickly pulled back, he said.

“Sideways is not very exciting, but that’s what we are going to see,” he said.

Canola had been slipping back until Statistics Canada released its updated production numbers on Tuesday. In the report, 2021-22 production of the Canadian oilseed was cut from 14.7 million to now 12.8 million tonnes.

However, there have been several indications from the trade that canola should have been cut further, perhaps by another one million tonne, based on the differences between the canola yields reported by the Prairie provinces and the slightly higher yields estimated by Statistics Canada.

Furthermore, the federal agency won’t issue another production report until December, leaving the trade to piece together the puzzle on its own.

Derwin noted a good amount of canola this year has been pre-sold, leaving very little for farmers to sell “straight off the combine” to elevators or crushers.

Since canola is well entrenched in the movement of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Malaysian palm oil, Derwin said both have been rangebound as well. That, in turn, leaves canola very little room to manoeuvre outside its own range.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Statistics Canada’s September principal field crop estimates, released Tuesday, and the previous report on Aug. 30 were determined by yield models using satellite imagery. MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said despite the short period between the reports, there can still be differing production numbers.

“It’s a case of taking a snapshot in time in each of those reports,” he said. “Even the next couple of weeks of hot and dry conditions that extended into the first half of August certainly gave a greater reflection as to the difficulties these crops have been struggling through.”

The report also cited that overall plant health measured by the Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP) decreased further in August and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) curves indicated that crops in Western Canada reached peak health up to four weeks earlier than normal.

During the 2021-22 crop year, Canada produced 1.8 million tonnes of lentils, according to the latest report. This represents a nine per cent decline from the 1.979 million tonnes reported in the August estimates and a 37.2 per cent drop from the 2.868 million tonnes produced from the previous year.

Chickpea production was revised slightly upward, with 64,000 tonnes produced in Canada according to the September estimates, compared to 63,000 in the August report. However, the latest estimate is still 70.2 per cent less than the 214,000 tonnes produced in 2020-21.

Soybean production was projected by Statistics Canada to be 5.886 million tonnes, only a 1.1 per cent increase from the 5.823 million measured in August. Production for the crop only declined 7.4 per cent from the previous year.

Dry pea production was measured at 2.527 million tonnes, down 3.8 per cent from the 2.627 million in the August estimates and a 45 per cent drop from the 4.594 million tonnes in 2020-21.

Jubinville said Canada’s pulses are in a “small supply year” and with demand from international buyers still going strong, the task of Canadian pulse producers satisfying that demand will be even more difficult.

“I think the pea industry is going through a radical shift for this marketing year with its limited supply that is basically going to be confined to the food industry,” he said.

“We’re not going to have the supplies to satisfy the feed sector this year and certainly the prices are a great impediment for Chinese buyers to use (peas) as feed this year.”

While this month’s estimates remain indicators of the direction crop production is going, Jubinville believes survey-based estimates are more accurate than those derived from satellite imagery, as they provide information from ground level.

For the survey-based December estimates, he thinks crop production numbers will be even lower.

“This is a pretty big cut, I think, (Statistics Canada) did on a number of commodities in this particular report. But I have a feeling we haven’t established a low point on these yet.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Now, a few days after USDA’s supply and demand estimates, Statistics Canada is already set to update its Aug. 30 report. The federal agency on Tuesday will issue its next principal field crops report, which will rely on satellite imagery.

“That vegetative picture is not looking as prominent and will have some impact trending lower,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said.

“If you take the yield analysis of both Saskatchewan and Alberta crop reports did last week, [production] should be under 12 million tonnes.”

Alberta said its canola yields were about 26 bushels per acre after 13 per cent of the province’s crop had been combined. With 31 per cent of Saskatchewan’s canola in the bin, its agriculture department placed yields at 20 bu/ac.

The key is choosing between what should be the correct estimate versus what Statistics Canada is likely to report, of which Jubinville suggested the federal agency could peg canola in the lower 13 million-tonne range.

“They may eventually get there, but I don’t know if they’re going to do it tomorrow,” he said.

Nevertheless it has become a sharp turnaround for canola production in Canada. Projections at one point earlier this year called for just over 20 million tonnes, somewhat above the 2020-21 crop of almost 19.5 million tonnes.

Severe drought and intense heat across the Prairies resulted in canola, as well as other crops, maturing quickly and not getting enough time to generate a sufficient number of seeds.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“You can’t find canola anywhere in the country and the stocks that are out there, a lot of them are already spoken for,” Klassen said, noting there are very tight stocks as well for barley.

The federal agency on Friday issued its stocks of principal field crops for March 31, which pegged total canola stocks in the country at 6.57 million tonnes. That’s 37.7 per cent below the stocks at the same point last year, and 30.2 per cent under the five-year average.

“The canola number was below market expectations. We’ve seen some pretty good demand here in the first eight to nine months of the crop year. As we get closer to the end, the export demand will have to taper off.”

The tightness of barley stocks is in a very similar situation, Klassen said, calling them “historically tight.”

In the Statistics Canada report, total barley stocks were 2.81 million tonnes and 20.5 per cent less than a year ago. Also, current stocks were 21.6 per cent under the five-year average.

With that in mind, the trader said it’s imperative for barley usage to be reduced from now until July, which would require price rationing.

“To see another $50 to $80 [per tonne] jump in barley wouldn’t surprise me,” Klassen said.

“We need to see every feedlot in Western Canada switch over to wheat.”

Of wheat, Klassen thought it came off quite well in the report at 16.23 million tonnes, 13.6 per cent less than stocks a year ago. When compared to the five-year average, current stocks were down 4.5 per cent.

At 2.75 million tonnes, durum stocks were lower as well, slipping 16.7 per cent from a year ago, according to the federal agency. When compared to the five-year average, durum fell 21.8 per cent.

Unlike canola and barley, Klassen said the demand for durum has eased quite a bit with little threat of running out.

“Durum is going to resort to the feed market value,” he stated, noting red spring milling wheat is likely to follow along.

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Farmers nationwide anticipate planting 5.3 million acres to soy in 2021, up 5.5 per cent from 2020, StatsCan said in its field crop survey released Tuesday.

“An increase in anticipated (soy) area is likely due to high prices driven by strong worldwide demand,” the agency said in its report.

Ontario, the largest soybean-growing province, expects to plant 2.9 million acres of soybeans, up two per cent from 2020, followed by Manitoba at 1.3 million acres, up 17.3 per cent.

In Manitoba, StatsCan said, “favourable yields in 2020, coupled with good prices, may encourage farmers to increase soybean acreage” and mark the province’s first such increase since 2017.

Soybean acres in Quebec are expected to reach 923,000, up 4.2 per cent on the year.

Expected soybean acres in the other Prairie provinces were redacted from Tuesday’s report to meet federal confidentiality requirements, while acres in Atlantic Canada were expected to remain unchanged.

Nationwide, grain corn acres are expected to rise 1.8 per cent on the year, to 3.6 million, StatsCan said.

Of that, 2.2 million acres are expected to be in Ontario, up 1.7 per cent from 2020, while Quebec farmers expect to plant 1.2 per cent more corn acres, at 901,300.

Elsewhere in Canada, Manitoba’s corn acres are expected to rise seven per cent, to 398,400.

Corn area in Saskatchewan and Alberta is expected to drop to 20,700 and 31,300 acres respectively, while acres in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia are expected unchanged.

The field crop survey, collecting information on planting intentions for grains, oilseeds and special crops, ran from March 1 to 29 and included about 11,500 farmers, StatsCan said. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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