U.S. soybean plantings were estimated at 83.380 million acres by the agency, which was slightly below average trade guesses and below the March estimate of 83.495 million acres. U.S. farmers planted 87.050 million acres of soybeans in 2024.

Corn area was also down slightly from March, at 95.203 million acres. However, that would still be up by about five per cent from 2024.

Wheat area, at 45.478 million acres, was up from the March estimate but still the smallest wheat area in 55 years. Of the total, winter wheat came in at 33.325 million acres, spring wheat at 10.045 million and durum at 2.108 million acres.

Stocks

Quarterly stocks data was also released Monday. U.S. wheat and soybean stocks as of June 1 were up on the year, while corn supplies were tighter.

Soybean stocks came in at 1.008 billion bushels, which topped average trade guesses and was up by 38 million bushels from the same time a year ago. The stocks data sparked a bearish reaction in the Chicago futures.

Quarterly U.S. wheat stocks, at 851 million bushels, compares with 696 million bushels the previous year.

Corn stocks as of June 1, at 4.644 billion bushels, were down by 353 million bushels on the year and in line with pre-report expectations.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

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With just over two months left in the marketing year, canola exports have already topped the previous target of 7.5 million tonnes, accounting for the upward revision to 8.5 million tonnes in the tables released May 21. However, AAFC left their call for 2024/25 ending stocks unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes.

To make calculations work, AAFC is now using a feed, waste and dockage estimate of negative 609,000 tonnes. The numbers are “expected to be updated, pending revisions from Statistics Canada in upcoming releases.”

New crop canola carryout for 2025/26 was left unchanged at 2.0 million tonnes, despite adjustments to the domestic crush forecast.

Canola crush for 2025/26 is now forecast at 11.0 million tonnes, down from last month’s estimate of 12.0 million tonnes, on tighter supplies and heightened uncertainty over proposed tariffs and renewable energy mandates. “The forecast is tentative and may be significantly revised depending on ongoing tariff discussions and resulting impacts on world trade,” said AAFC adding “if current trade actions have only a marginal impact on world vegetable oil and protein meal markets, Canadian crush plants are forecast to operate at full capacity due to strong world demand.

May estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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The government agency upped its call for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 canola ending stocks by 50,000 tonnes, now estimating carryout at 1.300 million and 1.000 million tonnes respectively. If realized, both years would still be well below the 2.748 million tonnes of canola on hand at the end of 2023/24.

Meanwhile, wheat ending stocks were lowered, with the country’s 2024/25 wheat carryout down by 150,000 tonnes from the December estimate at 4.400 million tonnes and 2025/26 ending stocks down by 50,000 tonnes at 4.500 million tonnes.

Statistics Canada will release its first planting projections for the 2025/26 crop on March 12.

February estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Canola ending stocks for 2024-25 were forecast at 2.200 million tonnes, down by 300,000 from the September estimate. That compares with the downwardly revised 2.748 million tonnes of canola carried forward from 2023-24. Usage numbers for 2024-25 were relatively unchanged, with exports steady at 7.500 million tonnes and domestic usage down by only 45,000 tonnes from September at 12.128 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered to 4.900 million tonnes, from 5.050 million tonnes in September. Total Canadian wheat exports for 2024-25 were raised by 100,000 tonnes, to 25.400 million tonnes, which would be in line with the 25.334 million tonnes exported in 2023-24.

October estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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If the estimate is realized, it would be down from the 189.3 million bushels crushed in May but up from the 174.1 million bushels processed in June 2022. It would also be the smallest monthly crush since September, USDA data showed.

Crush estimates ranged from 173.5 million bushels to 177.0 million bushels, with a median of 175.6 million bushels.

The USDA is due to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Tuesday, August 1.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of June 30 were estimated to have thinned to 2.207 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from five analysts.

If realized, the oil stocks would be down from the 2.386 billion pounds at the end of May and below stocks totaling 2.316 billion pounds at the end of June 2022.

Estimates ranged from 2.175 billion to 2.245 billion pounds, with a median of 2.200 billion pounds.

Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), accounting for about 95% of U.S. soybean crushings, processed 165.023 million bushels of soybeans last month, a nine-month low. The total was down from the 177.915 million bushels processed by NOPA members in May but up slightly from the 164.677 million bushels crushed by NOPA members in June 2022.

Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of June dipped to a seven-month low of 1.690 billion pounds, a nearly 10% drop from the prior month.

–Reporting for Reuters by Karl Plume in Chicago.

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“A later-than-normal start, but we wrapped up seeding within that normal window that growers typically do,” Potts said. “(It was) dry coming out of last year, dry across the province in many areas. That is still a concern at this particular point. There have been rains in some areas, but dryness is still a concern as we move forward.” 

There have been reports of grasshoppers in parts of central and southwestern Saskatchewan, Potts added, but he said it’s too early to know how much of a problem insects will pose to pulse crops.  

Smoke is drifting into Saskatchewan from wildfires in Alberta, which has caused air quality warnings. Potts was unsure what effect it would have on pulses. While he claimed that the wildfires near Fort McMurray, Alta. in 2016 helped moderate temperatures and increase yields, Potts said this year’s early summer wildfire activity leaves many unknowns. 

“This is much earlier in May and in June. I’m not certain that (the smoke) would have any impact, particularly if it subsides quite soon,” he added. 

Pea and lentil areas are expected to decline by five to 10 per cent, while the seeded area for chickpeas is projected to grow by 10 per cent, according to Potts. Statistics Canada releases their survey-based acreage estimates on June 28. 

Laird, Eston and Richlea lentil prices in Western Canada have risen over the past month, while those for crimsons have come down, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Green and yellow pea prices have remained steady over that time, while monthly price movement for Kabuli chickpeas has ranged from a gain of one cent to a loss of three cents per pound. 

“In terms of markets overall, we have slower movement and a little bit of weakness in prices lately,” he said. 

Potts is hoping for rain, especially in southern Saskatchewan, saying it would go a long way towards healthy crop conditions. 

“That’s something we’re looking forward to and I hope it comes to fruition,” he added. 

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Canada has exported 1.56 million tonnes of lentils during the crop year to date, with Turkey the top destination at 421,000 tonnes followed by India at 357,000 tonnes, according to Statistics Canada data. That compares with 956,000 tonnes of exports through eight months of the previous crop year, with Turkey’s imports up by 88 per cent and India up by 83 per cent.

Pea exports of 1.95 million tonnes are up by 44 per cent, with China accounting for just over a million tonnes of the total. Other major importers of Canadian peas include Bangladesh, the U.S., and Pakistan. That compares with the 1.35 million tonnes of pea exports by the same time a year ago. Chinese demand is similar on the year, but neither Bangladesh nor Pakistan were major buyers in 2021-22.

Canada has exported 167,000 tonnes of chickpeas through the first eight months of the 2022-23 crop year, with the U.S. the top destination followed by Turkey, Pakistan, Syria and Italy. The exports through March are roughly double what moved the same time the previous year.

Stocks of all three pulse crops were below the five-year average as of March 31, with 1.47 million tonnes of lentils, 900,000 tonnes of peas, and only 112,000 tonnes of chickpeas on hand to make it through the marketing year.

Large green lentils are currently trading in the 50-56 cents/lb. range in Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data, with new-crop bids around 48 cents. Old-crop red lentils top out at 37.5 cents/lb., with new-crop only slightly lower at 35 cents.

Green peas delivered to the elevator are trading at roughly $13.25-$14.50 per bushel, with yellow peas in the $10-$12 per bushel area. New-crop pricing for the two crops tops out at $13 and $10.50 per bushel respectively.

Large-calibre Kabuli chickpeas are currently trading at around 50-54 cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, with new-crop bids topping out at 48 cents/lb.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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“When I look at the run of StatCan reports that we get through the year, whether they’re acreage, production or ending stocks, this report in May is the least important of them all in terms of influencing the marketplace,” commented Jubinville.

One thing that was important about the report was its methodology, he suggested. For on-farm stocks, StatCan stuck with its AgZero initiative that’s meant to reduce the burden on respondents, while still producing high-quality estimates using alternative methods.

Jubinville suggested that change could lead to some consternation among market players regarding the accuracy of the report.

MORE READING: Pulse weekly outlook

Canola stocks picked up some lost ground since March 2022, with current total stocks pegged at 5.948 million tonnes, up 15.3 per cent from a year ago. However, that still came in well below the five-year average of 8.761 million tonnes.

Wheat as well saw an increase, from 11.22 million tonnes last March to now 13.261 million. But again, the figure was quite short of the average of 16.325 million tonnes.

Jubinville said he was somewhat surprised by the durum number of 1.806 million tonnes this March versus 1.897 million last year.

“But it’s always the canola number and the wheat number that are the focus. Both numbers probably came in a little less than what I think the general idea of trade is, suggesting good outflow of both of those commodities,” he said, doubting either figure had any significant impact on the markets.

Among other cereals, barley stocks grew a fair bit, from 1.853 million tonnes in March 2022 to now 2.667 million — but, as often the case, still below the five-year average, in this case 2.892 million tonnes.

Oats was an outlier as it well exceeded its average of 1.713 million tonnes. StatCan said oat stocks were about 2.634 million tonnes versus 1.228 million a year ago.

Flax was another gain in the report, with current stocks placed at 355,000 tonnes compared to last year’s 184,000, with the average at 277,000.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Corn futures ended mixed, with nearby contracts rising on bullish U.S. March 1 stocks data, while deferred contracts fell on a larger-than-expected USDA plantings forecast.

Chicago Board of Trade May soybeans settled up 31 cents at $15.05-1/2 per bushel after reaching $15.13-3/4, the contract’s highest since March 13 (all figures US$).

CBOT May corn ended up 11 cents at $6.60-1/2 a bushel while new-crop December corn finished down 1/2 cent at $5.66-1/2. CBOT May wheat settled unchanged on the day at $6.92-1/4 a bushel, anchored by a larger-than-expected USDA wheat acreage figure.

Soybean futures rose after the government projected 2023 plantings of the oilseed at 87.5 million acres, up only slightly from 2022 and near the low end of estimates in a Reuters poll of analysts. USDA also reported March 1 soy stocks at 1.685 billion bushels, down 13 per cent from a year ago.

“What really sticks out is that the soybean stocks are at the low end of trade expectations. That… seems to indicate that we could see some price rationing,” said Karl Setzer, brokerage research lead with Mid-Co Commodities.

For corn, USDA pegged quarterly stocks at 7.401 billion bushels, the smallest for March 1 in nine years. Looking ahead to this spring, USDA projected 2023 corn plantings at 92 million acres, up four per cent from 2022.

However, traders cautioned that wet weather in southern reaches of the U.S. crop belt and heavy snow in the Dakotas and Minnesota could complicate plantings in the coming weeks.

“These acreage numbers are all moot unless the snow starts to melt in the northern U.S. Plains,” said Ed Duggan, senior risk management specialist at Top Third Ag Marketing.

For the first quarter of the year, CBOT wheat fell 12.6 per cent, with corn down 2.7 per cent and soybeans down 1.2 per cent.

— Julie Ingwersen is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Chicago.

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U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks projections for the current marketing year were left unchanged, while the corn number was raised slightly.

Total U.S. corn ending stocks for 2022-23 are now forecast at 1.257 billion bushels by the government agency, which would be up from the November forecast of 1.182 million but in line with pre-report trade guesses. U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks, at 220 million and 571 million bushels respectively, were unchanged from November but below average trade expectations anticipating slight increases for both crops.

While the U.S. corn carryout was raised from November, world stocks of the grain were revised lower due in part to declining production numbers out of Ukraine and Russia. World corn production for 2022-23 was lowered to 1.162 billion tonnes by USDA, from 1.168 billion in November. Ending stocks were pegged at 298.4 million tonnes, from an estimated 300.8 million the previous month.

World wheat production was down by about two million tonnes from the November estimate, at 780.59 million tonnes, as reductions in Canada and Argentina more than offset gains in Australia. World wheat ending stocks for the year were forecast at 267.33 million tonnes, which would be down by about half-a-million tonnes from the November forecast.

For soybeans, the world crop was raised slightly at 391.17 million tonnes, with the carryout upped to 102.71 million tonnes from 102.17 million in November. Production numbers for Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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