“It looks like late spring/early summer is pretty hot across almost all of Western Canada. The Prairies are all above normal [temperature-wise],” Kehler said.

He noted Winnipeg alone has very likely had its second hottest May in the last 150 years.

“I’m anticipating June will be hotter and drier than normal across most of the Prairies. But with this early heat and humidity we are also seeing quite a few days with thunderstorms that will affect the rainfall situation on a small scale,” Kehler explained.

He added those “thunderstorms will be hit-and-miss” when it comes to pockets of heavy rain over parts of the region. Nevertheless, the “broad pattern” points to a hot and dry June.

As the Prairies go through June, the region could see at least some of the transition into a El Nino weather pattern, he said.

“It’s on the upswing, but typically an El Nino would actually bring a more active weather pattern to the Prairies. We’re not really seeing that yet. However, the longer-range signs say we might turn a bit wetter later as we go into the summer.”

That said, he emphasized summer is by far the most difficult season to predict weather — especially any extended forecasts.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) exceeded its authority by lifting summertime restrictions on the sale of a 15 per cent ethanol fuel blend known as E15. The decision came in a lawsuit by an oil refining trade group challenging the rule.

The EPA in 2019 extended a waiver that allowed year-round sales of E15. Ethanol producers cheered that move, as it would allow expanded sales of the blend.

The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), which sued the EPA, welcomed the D.C. Circuit’s ruling.

“There is no ambiguity in statute and the previous administration’s reinterpretation overstepped the will of Congress,” AFPM president Chet Thompson said in a statement.

Biofuel groups said they disagreed with the ruling and vowed to work with President Joe Biden’s administration to ensure the continuity of E15 sales through the 2021 summer season and beyond.

“We are pursuing all available options and will work with the administration and our congressional champions to ensure that we have a solution in place before the 2022 driving season,” Growth Energy, the Renewable Fuels Association and the National Corn Growers Association said in a joint statement.

— Stephanie Kelly reports on U.S. energy and renewable fuel sectors for Reuters from New York.

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So far this summer, the region’s weather has been highlighted by warmer and generally drier conditions in the eastern Prairies, while the western portion has been cooler with a great deal more precipitation, especially in the north.

“We’re still seeing fairly warm weather in Manitoba and cooler in Alberta with Saskatchewan in between,” said Scott Kehler of Weather Logics at Steinbach, Man.

“This will be the pattern for a little while longer,” said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in Kansas City.

The two differ slightly as to when there might be a significant shift in Prairie weather. Lerner believes there will be more rain for the northern areas of the Prairies around late July to early August. Kehler leaned toward that shift not occurring until the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, noting summer is the most difficult time to forecast the weather.

Kehler said the severe thunderstorms southern Manitoba has experienced this summer are likely to continue.

“With more storms there will be pockets where there’s good to excessive moisture, while in areas not far away will be close to having a drought,” he said, citing Brandon and the surrounding area as one example.

As summer continues, Lerner predicted Alberta should see less rain, alleviating some of the very wet conditions parts of that province have been experiencing.

He said a ridge is likely to form over North Dakota and Montana, extending into southern Saskatchewan, which should result in the warm weather sticking around.

“There would be disturbances that move over top of the ridge and pass into Manitoba,” Lerner said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The Uruguayan shearers come to Spain every year, where farmers value them for their skills, their speed and particular care for the animals’ wellbeing. This year the pandemic delayed their arrival by about a month to mid-May, leaving the sheep in urgent need.

The shearers are so prized in Spain, that farmers chipped in to charter a plane for the Uruguayans after border closures, flight cancellations and restrictions on movement threatened to leave them unable to make the journey.

The farmers, who even asked the Spanish King for help, convinced the government to authorize their stay after the Uruguayans underwent medical tests before flying.

Federico Ventura is one of the workers each shearing around 10,000 sheep over a 70-day campaign in the northern region of Castilla y Leon. They use special machines and an animal restraint technique that further speeds up the process.

“I’ve been coming here for six years. Because of the coronavirus, everything was delayed, but we’re moving at a good pace,” Ventura told Reuters at a farm in Villafale, around 300 km northwest of Madrid.

The Spanish season is crucial to his livelihood.

“With the 70 days here we live for a year in Uruguay.”

Three or four shearers can shear 750 sheep on a farm in just one day, while with less skilled workers it could take up to a month, said farm owner Angel Leon. The Uruguayans earn 1.5 euros (C$2.29) plus tax per animal.

“Had they not come, we would not have been able to shear,” said farmer Jose Moran, one of those to help fund their flight.

— Reporting for Reuters by Juan Medina; additional reporting and writing by Emma Pinedo.

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The rule expanding sales of so-called E15 was promised by President Donald Trump late last year as a way to help corn farmers, but includes measures sought by the oil industry to curb biofuel credit market speculation.

“We hope to expeditiously propose and finalize the rule consistent with the President’s direction,” EPA spokesman Mike Abboud said in an email to Reuters. Following the interagency process, the proposed rule will be published and put out for public comment before being finalized. Congressional approval is not required.

The process needs to be completed before June 1 to allow for gasoline with a higher blend of ethanol, also known as E15, to be available for summer sales when driving demand picks up.

E15 gasoline contains 15 per cent ethanol, versus the 10 per cent found in most U.S. gasoline. The ban over the year-round sales of the fuel had been imposed over concerns that E15 contributes to smog in hot weather.

The proposed rule was at the forefront of a brief interagency disagreement last week when Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said the EPA was not going to be able to finalize the rule on time. He walked back from his comments in a few hours, after speaking with EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler.

The EPA had planned to release the draft rule in early February but was delayed by a 35 day-long partial federal government shutdown.

Trump said in October he was directing the EPA to allow year-round sales of E15, a victory for the corn industry. Combining the rule with Renewable Identification Number (RIN) market reforms was a concession to the rival oil industry.

Oil and corn industries have been in the opposite ends of a tug of war and Wheeler has been caught in the middle of pressure from lawmakers representing oil and corn states. Five Republican senators in a letter criticized his biofuels policy last month, briefly raising questions about his confirmation.

Wheeler, who had been in charge of the EPA in an acting capacity since last July, was confirmed by the Senate last week.

Under the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard, oil refiners have to blend increasing volumes of biofuels into the nation’s gasoline and diesel each year, or purchase credits — called RINs — from those who do.

— Humeyra Pamuk is a Reuters correspondent covering U.S. energy policy in Washington, D.C.

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Having set out to study how best to manage higher-moisture canola over the spring and summer, a team from the Prairie Agricultural Machinery Institute (PAMI) has also found that if it goes into the bin cool, dry canola — at moisture below 10 per cent — was at its least risk of spoilage when just left alone.

“Over the course of two separate studies conducted in 2014 and 2016, we found little to no risk of spoilage when canola was just left alone, provided it was cool and dry at the start of spring,” PAMI research scientist Joy Agnew said in a release.

Farmers are becoming more likely to keep canola in bins during the summer months as they take on year-round delivery contracts, bin capacities rise and both canola production and market demand increase, Humboldt, Sask.-based PAMI said in a release Monday.

Stored canola is at greater risk during the spring and summer when warm outside air warms the grain nearest the bin wall, allowing it to pick up free moisture, the PAMI team said.

When that warm, moist air passes through cooler spots in the bin, the moisture can be deposited in the cooler grain, creating a high-moisture zone and posing a higher risk of spoilage.

The PAMI team compared three approaches to managing bin temperature and moisture: leaving it alone, with no handling; aerating the bin; and “turning” the canola, removing it and putting it back to spread out temperature distribution.

The study’s first phase, in 2014, was done to find the best practice for spring and summer storage of canola with relatively higher moisture content. The 2014 findings were revisited in 2016 using canola bins with an average of nine per cent moisture content.

Compared against leaving the bin alone, the PAMI team wrote, “turning the bin resulted in the lowest average bin temperature, while aerating resulted in the most uniform temperature distribution.”

In both cases, though, “turning and aerating helped to equalize the temperature distribution, but resulted in potentially unstable conditions that could increase the risk of spoilage.”

Both turning and aerating can create spots within the bins where cold grain sits directly beside warm grain for short stretches — a problem which “may have resulted in condensation due to the temperature differential.”

Fortunately, the study team said, that didn’t happen in either 2014 or 2016 in this study. When the grain was unloaded, there was “no indication of wet spots or spoilage.”

By comparison, the team wrote, “leaving the grain alone resulted in the most stable and favourable storage conditions.”

The 2016 study results, Agnew noted, helped to broaden the “leave it alone” recommendation to canola with moisture content up to nine per cent, from the previous seven per cent level as monitored in the 2014 study.

Past that, she said, the 2016 results “confirm our observations from our 2014 study.”

Either way, the team cautioned, “monitoring the temperature of canola during storage is recommended, due to the potential for spoilage” over the warmer storage period.

Monitoring, Agnew said, is important “particularly in the spring and summer when temperature differences are most likely to occur… There are many variables that can affect the temperature and moisture in the bins, and producers must monitor the grain conditions on a regular basis.”

The study involved monitoring canola temperature during June, July and August in three 3,500-bushel bins at one location — near Annaheim, Sask., about 140 km east of Saskatoon — using sensors installed inside the bins.

The study team also “intermittently” monitored five other bins with temperature-sensing probes at different nearby sites, to collect data from different initial grain conditions in different sizes of bins. — AGCanada.com Network

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“In October or November, it does its forecast of what the winter’s going to be like, and for three years in a row now, it has been diametrically 180 degrees opposite of what actually happened,” said Harry Brook, a crop specialist with Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development.

“It was saying two or three years ago, ‘Oh, she’s going to be a snowier- and colder-than-average winter,’ and it was a warmer- and drier-than-average winter. Last year, it was supposed to be warmer and drier, and it was colder and snowier.”

Brook doesn’t claim to be a weather forecaster, but a few things have caught his attention.

• More ‘Five to Remember’ from Alberta Farmer: Mother Nature had Albertans guessing ‘what next’ all year long

“The last four springs, we’ve had relatively cool, wet conditions. I’m wondering if this is a trend. Or is it an aberration?

“If it is a trend, once again we’re going to have difficulty getting into the field on time.”

Rainfall patterns are odd, too.

“I’ve noticed there’s a trend that we get our moisture early in the season and then by July, the taps turn off and there’s very little moisture after that,” he said. “We tend to go into the fall with relatively dry conditions in our soil, which doesn’t bode well for the spring.”

So does Brook think we’re in for another cool, wet spring and midsummer dry spell?

He’s not taking that bait.

“You hang around Alberta long enough, you start to realize that nobody’s got a bloody clue what’s happening,” he replied.

So what can producers do to deal with the weather?

“Weather being what it is — unpredictable — it means producers have to be flexible,” he said.

“It’s a different game every year. One year, you could be droughted out and the next year you could be flooded.

“Farming is certainly not for the faint of heart.”

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