For seven straight trading sessions, canola bids have climbed, from $445.60 per tonne at the close of trading on Sept. 27 to $464.80 on Tuesday.

“Soybean prices which had been on the move higher, to three month highs, have been lending support,” Jubinville said, adding that other vegetable oils in general have been on the upswing.

Canola busted out of its summer-long sideways trading range, he said, and that included busting above its upper resistance of $450-$455 per tonne for the November contract.

But there is a limit, which Jubinville said is tough to gauge.

“My gut feeling is there will be eventually a near-term supply of canola that comes out from the farmer when some targets are hit,” he said.

One such target will be when cash bids exceed $10 per bushel, he said.

Another factor has been the federal government’s cash advance program, which was altered to help farmers hurt by China’s ban on Canadian canola exports.

“There’s a sense that growers, if they’re feeling bullish-minded, may hold supply back from the marketplace and use that cash advance program on canola, [partly to help] deal with near-term cash flow issues,” Jubinville said.

With September being one of the wettest on record on the Prairies, especially in Manitoba, there have been concerns about the crop’s quality.

Jubinville said hopes for the new crop are very likely to be diminished as a late-maturing crop now has to contend with wet conditions and freezing temperatures.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

The post ICE weekly outlook: More than weather behind canola uptrend appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“Seasonally speaking, we’re in the neighborhood where canola makes the turn down,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada, noting canola typically sees some softness after seeding is complete and farmers look to clean out their old-crop supplies.

Good rains across the Prairies in recent days were also bearish for values, as the moisture helped alleviate some of the worries that had propped up values earlier in the spring.

However, the longer-term forecasts are still calling for hotter and drier summer conditions, which should provide some support, said Jubinville.

From a chart standpoint, canola is trading right near the top of a long-term trading range. The $540 per tonne level has provided solid resistance for the front-month contract for a number of years and Jubinville said it would likely take an outside catalyst to break higher.

The “on-again, off-again” trade dispute between China and the U.S. was another factor being watched, according to Jubinville. While concerns over Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans have weighed on beans, Canadian canola remains somewhat immune from that dispute.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Seasonals to weigh on canola appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“We’ve been in a sideways trading environment for 2-1/2 years, and I don’t see that changing,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

He placed the nearby November contract in a $25 range from $490 to $515, with the wider $460-$540 range the “all-encompassing range of the past two years.”

Jubinville expected the nearby bias to be to the downside, as seasonal harvest pressure weighs on prices. However, he said, old-crop supplies are tight, which should see a bounce back to the upper end of the range following the harvest.

“If you think it was very tight last year and you need every single bushel that’s coming this year, then prices should be, at worse neutral, but probably should be appreciating,” said Neil Townsend of FarmLink Marketing, on the mentality of end-use buyers.

Townsend said he was unsure where the futures would be headed, as there are other factors at play outside of the direct supply/demand fundamentals, but added that cash bids in the countryside have room for improvement.

The futures were underpriced, he said, noting “canola is a strong buy at $500 (per tonne).”

However, activity in the Canadian dollar is one background factor that could sway the market. The currency rose sharply on Wednesday following a move by the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Canola rangebound at harvest time appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

However, the market remains rangebound overall, as traders wait to get a better handle on the size of this year’s crop.

With harvest operations just starting, Jamie Wilton of R.J. O’Brien in Winnipeg expected canola would remain trading in its sideways range, reacting to yield reports as they come in.

He placed support at about $490 per tonne in the November contract, with resistance at $515.

A lack of significant farmer selling for the time being, tied with an equal reluctance from end-users to enter the market, contributes to the rangebound sentiment in the canola market.

Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based production estimates of the year on Aug. 31, and any surprises in the report could provide some direction for canola.

Canada grew 18.4 million tonnes of canola in 2016-17, and pre-report estimates for 2017-18 range widely, with some industry participants expecting a sizeable decline and others a large increase.

Wilton said activity in the Canadian dollar also has the potential to provide some nearby direction for canola.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Canola rangebound ahead of harvest appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.