• Solid crush data released Tuesday remained supportive for soyoil, helping underpin beans. Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans in the United States in January, which was a record for the month and up 10.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House later this week.
• Rainfall in southern Brazil helped improve crop conditions, reducing concerns over hot and dry weather in the area. Meanwhile, the harvest was progressing in central and northern growing regions.
• Optimism over increased sales to China remained supportive for values, although the Lunar New Year holiday was limiting business.

WHEAT futures corrected higher amid ideas recent losses were overdone.

• Concerns over cold temperatures damaging winter wheat in parts of Ukraine were supportive.
• Warmer weather and dryness concerns in parts of the U.S. Plains were also supportive.

CORN futures were up in sympathy with wheat, with positioning ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ag Outlook Forum a feature.

• The USDA will release its first projections for 2026/27 supply and demand as part of the Ag Outlook Forum, with early trade estimates predicting a reduction in corn acreage and increases in soybean area.

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Wheat rose on what appeared to be fund-driven short-covering, while corn futures sagged in choppy trade.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures closed up 1-1/2 cents at $11.24 per bushel after reaching $11.28-1/4, the contract’s highest since February 6.

CBOT March wheat gained nine cents to close at $5.37-1/4 a bushel while March corn settled down 1-1/4 cent at $4.27-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans rallied as traders gauged the likelihood of top global soy buyer China booking more U.S. soybeans.

U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that China had increased its target for U.S. soybean purchases, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a monthly world crop report on Tuesday said, “China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans.”

Brazil, the world’s biggest soy producer and exporter, has begun harvesting a record-large soybean crop that is expected to dominate the global export market in the coming months. But the prospect of China buying additional U.S. soy cargoes under a trade truce has buoyed the futures market.

“The big unknown with China continues to be the big factor. We are finding that futures are just not able to set back very much in this environment,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Wheat climbed despite a lack of news. Commodity funds hold a hefty net short position in CBOT wheat futures, leaving the market vulnerable to bouts of short-covering.

Corn futures drifted lower, losing to soybeans and wheat on inter-market spreads. The market shrugged off confirmation from the USDA of private sales of 230,560 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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The expanding harvest of a record-large Brazilian soybean crop added to bearish sentiment, analysts said.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures SH26 settled down 4-1/2 cents at $11.10-3/4 per bushel, retreating from Friday’s high of $11.37-3/4, the contract’s highest level since early December.

But CBOT soyoil futures bucked the lower trend, rising more than two per cent after the U.S. and India released an interim framework for a trade deal that could lower barriers to Indian imports of U.S. soyoil.

Corn and wheat futures drifted lower amid a lack of supportive news. CBOT March corn CH26 ended down 1-1/2 cents at $4.28-3/4 a bushel and March wheat WH26 finished down 1 cent at $5.28-3/4 a bushel.

Last week’s surge in soybean futures, tied to hopes for fresh purchases by China, unleashed a wave of cash soybean sales by U.S. farmers that helped knock futures off their highs by Friday. Soybeans had risen last week after Trump said China was considering raising U.S. soybean purchases to 20 million metric tons for the current season. But dealers remain skeptical as higher prices make it uneconomical for China to purchase U.S. beans.

The focus by Monday appeared to shift back to Brazil, the world’s top soy supplier, where growers had harvested 16 per cent of the soybean crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said. That was just above the 15 per cent level reported a year earlier.

“A lot of this has to do with the Brazilian harvest getting into full tilt,” said Tom Fritz, a partner with Chicago-based EFG Group.

Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly world supply-demand report on Tuesday, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expected the agency to raise its estimate of Brazil’s soybean harvest to 179.4 million metric tons, from its previous forecast of 178 million, already an all-time high.

Brazilian crop supply agency Conab is scheduled to release its own production estimates on Thursday.

Traders shrugged off news from the USDA on Monday confirming private sales of 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China.

“U.S.-China soybean trade appears to be running out of steam with that growing supply pressure out of South America ever-present,” said Sean Hickey, an analyst at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

-Additional reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Michael Hogan in Hamburg

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Corn and wheat chopped up and down, though ample global supply continued to curb grain prices while traders turned their attention to a U.S. Department of Agriculture world crop report due Tuesday.

The most-active CBOT soybean Sv1 contract settled 3 cents higher at $11.15-1/4 a bushel.

Soybeans hit a two-month high on Wednesday after Trump posted that China was hiking purchases and “lifting the soybean count to 20 million tons” for the current season.

That implied that China could buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 on top of about 12 million tons already booked since a trade truce was reached in late October.

“The market is assuming that China will buy something,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, though he noted that many industry players are skeptical that Trump’s comments will prove accurate.

The remarks surprised traders, who expected China to rely heavily on Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026.

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is expected to produce 181.6 million metric tons in 2025/26, consultancy firm StoneX said on Monday, raising its outlook for the harvest that is in progress.

Meanwhile, CBOT corn Cv1 closed 4-3/4 cents lower to $4.30-1/4 per bushel. CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 5-1/2 cents lower at $5.29-3/4 per bushel.

Traders are monitoring dry weather in Argentina, though a massive U.S. harvest last year and favorable planting conditions for Brazil’s second corn crop tempered concerns.

In wheat, traders have been monitoring severe cold in the U.S.and in Russian production belts, but snow cover is expected to limit potential crop losses. Nearly all Russian crops were in normal condition as of Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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Corn and wheat ticked up with spillover support from soybeans, though a firmer dollar and easing weather concerns capped the cereal markets.

Soybeans rallied on Wednesday after Trump said China was “lifting the soybean count to 20 million tons for the current season,” suggesting China could buy 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 on top of approximately 12 million tons already booked since the trade truce in late October.

“Honestly, it’s the only story right now,” said Jason Ward, managing director of Northstar Commodity.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 settled 20 cents higher at $11.12-1/4 a bushel.

The news surprised traders who have expected China to focus on buying cheaper Brazilian beans in the coming months as Brazil’s new crop comes onto the market.

Many traders are optimistic that China will fulfill its verbal commitment to purchase additional bushels, which in addition to demand from other countries and soy processing plants, would drastically change the U.S. soybean supply.

Some market players, however, have remained cautious given the potential strain on U.S. supply from the new export volume cited by Trump.

Such additional purchases may represent a political gesture by Beijing, despite higher costs, ahead of a planned visit by Trump to China in April, according to analysts.

CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 8-1/2 cents higher at $5.35-1/4 a bushel while corn Cv1 closed 5-1/2 cents higher at $5.35 per bushel.

Nearly all Russian crops were in normal condition as of February 5, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev was quoted as saying on Thursday.

Wheat traders have been monitoring severe cold in U.S., Russian and Ukrainian production belts, but snow cover is expected to limit potential crop losses.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said China is “lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season (They have committed to 25 Million Tons for next season!”

By late January, China had purchased roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a U.S.-stated pledge to purchase that volume by the end of February after a late-October trade truce spurred buying.

China, by far the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, had exited the U.S. market during the prolonged tit-for-tat trade war between the two countries. Market players closely monitor China to watch for signs of fresh demand.

The most-active soybean contract Sv1settled 26-1/2 cents higher at $10.92-3/4 a bushel.

Soyoil futures continued a day-earlier rally supported by updated U.S. government guidance on tax credits for biofuel, a major source of demand for soyoil.

Soybean by-product soyoil BOv1 rose 1.17 cent to close at 55.66 cents per pound.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday released updated guidance on biofuel tax credits, a move welcomed by traders as giving clarity to biofuel producers.

CBOT corn Cv1 closed 1 cent higher at $4.29-1/2 per bushel amid a flurry of technical trading, while CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 2 cents lower at $5.26-3/4 per bushel.

Ample global supply continued to cap grain prices as traders started to look ahead to world crop forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture next Tuesday for fresh direction.

The dollar rose on Wednesday, making U.S. crops more expensive internationally.

Easing concerns over crop winterkill in Ukraine and Russia following a prolonged period of severe cold in the Black Sea region has added pressure to the wheat market.

-Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing

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The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 settled 5-1/2 cents higher at $10.65-3/4 a bushel, recovering from a three-session fall. CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 1 cent higher at $5.28-3/4 per bushel, and CBOT corn Cv1 closed 2-3/4 cents higher at $4.28-1/2.

Market players are continuing to parse through the Treasury’s updated guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit, which – among other changes – clarified that only feedstocks from the U.S., Mexico and Canada qualify for the tax credit and extended the credit to 2029.

“A lot of the support is from the release of 45Z guidance from the Treasury this morning. It gave some clarity and additionality for biofuel producers,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company.

Biofuels are a major source of demand for soyoil, traders said. The long-awaited guidance also helped push corn futures higher as the grain is used to produce ethanol, another major biofuel.

Grains had been dragged lower on Monday by a selloff in commodities, fuelled by a de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a rising dollar. But a steadying of broader commodities markets, particularly crude oil, on Tuesday provided support for grains and soybeans.

Ample global supply continued to hang over the market.

In South America, Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is forecast to be a record soybean crop.

Brokerage StoneX and consultancy Celeres raised their forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop on Monday, citing higher yields than previously expected.

In wheat, concerns were easing about cold weather damage to crops in the U.S. and the Black Sea region, though wheat futures gained some spillover support from corn and soy futures.

-Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing

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Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans Sv1 settled down four cents to $10.60-1/4 a bushel. Wheat Wv1 closed 10-1/4 cents lower at $5.27-3/4 a bushel, and corn Cv1 closed down 2-1/2 cents to $4.25-3/4 per bushel.

A rising dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive, has put pressure across the board on commodities. The dollar clung to its gains on Monday as investors weighed what the U.S. Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh might look like, with his preference for a smaller balance sheet.

“Weakness in energies is 99 per cent responsible for what’s going on in grains markets,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading. “You can’t have crude down four per cent to five per cent and not see corn and soybeans suffer as a result.”

Corn and soybeans, whose byproducts are used to produce biodiesel, often track weakness in crude oil prices.

In South America, Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is forecast to be a record soybean crop. Traders expect China to turn mainly to Brazil for imports in the coming months after a recent wave of U.S. soybean purchases.

Rains across key agricultural regions in western Argentina improved soil moisture conditions, yet soy and corn crops will still need more rainfall in the coming weeks to avoid yield losses. But harvesting of Argentina’s big new crop is finishing, traders said.

Chicago wheat drew background support from severe cold in the wheat belts of the U.S. and the Black Sea region, though snow cover helped protect crops from winterkill in many areas. Traders are also monitoring forecasts of deep frost in Ukraine this week that could cause crop damage.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Michael Hogan in Hamburg

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Market participants were adjusting positions at the end of the month and after a volatile trading week that saw record-high precious metal prices in addition to the dollar slide. But on Friday, global stocks declined and rallies in precious metals cooled as the dollar rose.

Grains and oilseed prices had climbed to multi-week highs this week on the back of a weaker dollar, but ample global supply has kept gains in check.

“It’s just a risk-off environment,” said Karl Setzer, co-founder of Consus Ag Consulting.

“We’ve really pounded the dollar this month,” said Setzer, but he said most of the trade was based on “money flow, positioning and profit-taking.”

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat Wv1 fell 3-1/2 cents to end at $5.38 a bushel after hitting a new nine-week peak of $5.44-3/4.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 fell 8 cents to $10.64-1/4 a bushel, while corn Cv1 shed 2-1/2 cents to $4.28-1/4 a bushel.

The dollar index =USD continued its recovery on Friday, supported by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could name on Friday former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the new head of the central bank.

Investors view Warsh as more hawkish on interest rates than other candidates for the post. Market jitters over Trump’s policymaking, including his criticism of the Fed, had fuelled the dollar’s recent slide.

Chicago wheat has also drawn support this week from short-covering by investment funds and bouts of severe cold in wheat belts in the United States and the Black Sea region.

After extreme cold in the U.S. Plains in the past week, traders were monitoring forecasts of deep frosts in Ukraine next week that could cause crop damage.

In Argentina, recent rains improved soil moisture in parts of the country but corn and soy crops still need more rainfall to avoid yield losses, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday.

The prospect of record soybean production in Brazil, where harvesting is in its early stages, was nonetheless tempering concern about Argentina.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang in Beijing and Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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Corn traded near flat and soybeans ticked down slightly on expectations of a large South American harvest.

The dollar index rebounded after tumbling to a four-year low on Tuesday, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s reference to its value as “great” fuelling expectations of further weakness.

But the dollar’s recent plunge was still weighing on investor positioning, traders said.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the slide prompted a flow of money into hard assets.

A sharp rise in crude oil, driven by concerns about possible U.S. military strikes against Iran, also underpinned grains and oilseeds, which are partly used for biofuel. O/R

The most-active wheat contract Wv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up 5-1/2 cents at $5.41-1/2 per bushel.

CBOT corn Cv1 settled up 3/4 cent at $4.30-3/4 per bushel. CBOT soybeans Sv1 ended down 2-3/4 cents at $10.72-3/4 a bushel.

In top soybean producer Brazil, grain cooperative Coamo said it expects its 2026 harvest to be the largest ever.

The prospect of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest was tempering concern about parched conditions affecting some soy and corn crops in Argentina.

In wheat, adverse weather conditions in growing regions of the Black Sea and the U.S. created some support, although it could be hard to sustain a rally based on adverse weather in January, Suderman said.

Agricultural consultancy Sovecon on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast, underscoring a hefty surplus in the world’s biggest wheat-exporting nation.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said net U.S. wheat export sales in the week ended January 22 totaled 558,201 metric tons for shipments in the 2025/26 marketing year. The sales were near the high end of a range of trade estimates.

-Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz, Daphne Zhang, Peter Hobson and Cynthia Osterman

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