The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 125.1 points in November, down from a revised 126.6 in October and the lowest since January.

The November average was also 2.1 per cent below the year-earlier level and 21.9 per cent down from a peak in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the FAO said.

The agency’s sugar price reference fell 5.9 per cent from October to its lowest since December 2020, pressured by ample global supply expectations, while the dairy price index dropped 3.1 per cent in a fifth consecutive monthly decline, reflecting increased milk production and export supplies.

Vegetable oil prices fell 2.6 per cent to a five-month low, as declines for most products including palm oil outweighed strength in soyoil.

Meat prices declined 0.8 per cent, with pork and poultry leading the decrease, while beef quotations stabilised as the removal of U.S. tariffs on beef imports tempered recent strength, the FAO said.

In contrast, the FAO’s cereal price benchmark rose 1.8 per cent month-on-month. Wheat prices increased due to potential demand from China and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, while maize prices were supported by demand for Brazilian exports and reports of weather disruption to field work in South America.

Record cereal production/stocks forecast

In a separate cereal supply and demand report, the FAO raised its global cereal production forecast for 2025 to a record 3.003 billion tonnes, compared with 2.990 billion tonnes projected last month, mainly due to increased wheat output estimates.

Forecast world cereal stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season were also revised up to a record 925.5 million tonnes, reflecting expectations of expanded wheat stocks in China and India as well as higher coarse grain stocks in exporting countries, the FAO said.

— Reporting by Gus Trompiz

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Why it matters: Canadian farmers are caught in the crossfire of the global trade uncertainty.

“The rules-based trading system is at risk of derailment,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told delegates at the U.N. Trade and Development conference in Geneva on Oct. 22, pointing to concerns about trade wars and rising trade barriers.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions since he took office in January have shocked financial markets and sent a wave of uncertainty through the global economy.

On Aug. 7, Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, leaving major trade partners scrambling for a better deal.

“Supply chains are in turmoil, and trade barriers are rising, with some least developed countries facing extortionate tariffs of 40 per cent despite representing barely one per cent of global trade flows,” Guterres said.

While the EU has struck a deal setting duties at 15 per cent on most goods it exports to the U.S., they are often much higher on so-called least developed countries. Laos, for example, faces tariffs at 40 per cent.

Earlier this month the World Trade Organization sharply lowered its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5 per cent, citing the expected delayed impact of U.S. tariffs.

It marked a significant revision down from its previous estimate in August of 1.8 per cent growth.

Trump’s tariff policies have also put pressure on global trade rules agreed under the World Trade Organization.

In April, a former WTO boss said the future terms of global trade could be decided outside the 30-year-old international watchdog unless it reforms itself fast.

— Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin

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The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 127.7 points in May, reflecting a 0.8 per cent decrease from the April figure.

Why it matters: Declining food prices are good for consumers, but cut into farmers’ returns.

The May reading was up six per cent from a year earlier but over 20 per cent below a March 2022 peak following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that started a devastating war between two of the world’s leading grains producers.

The FAO cereal price index fell 1.8 per cent month-on-month, led by a sharp drop in global corn prices. Strong harvests and ample supplies in Argentina and Brazil, along with expectations of a record crop in the United States, weighed on prices.

Wheat prices edged lower due to improved crop conditions in the northern hemisphere.

By contrast, rice prices rose 1.4 per cent, supported by firm demand for fragrant varieties and currency movements.

Vegetable oil prices declined 3.7 per cent from April, with declines across all major oils. Palm oil prices fell due to seasonal output increases in Southeast Asia. Soy oil prices dropped on higher South American supplies and weak demand for biofuel.

Rapeseed oil eased on improved European Union supply prospects, while sunflower oil declined amid weak global demand.

The FAO sugar price index decreased by 2.6 per cent, reflecting concerns over the global economic outlook, weaker demand from food and beverage industries, and expectations of a production recovery next season.

Meat prices rose 1.3 per cent from April. Beef, pork and sheep meat prices increased, with beef reaching a record high. Poultry prices declined, pressured by surplus supplies in Brazil following import restrictions linked to a bird flu outbreak.

The FAO dairy price index rose 0.8 per cent, supported by strong demand from Asia. Butter prices remained at historic highs, while cheese and whole milk powder prices also increased.

Global cereal production to rise

In a separate report, the FAO forecast record global cereal production of 2.911 billion tonnes in 2025, up from 2.848 billion in its previous estimate and 2.1 per cent above 2024.

With production expected to surpass consumption, global cereal stocks are anticipated to grow by 1.0 per cent, partially recovering from last year’s contraction.

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The U.N. mission has fallen under increasing scrutiny over the years as the eastern conflict between rebel groups, self defense forces and other militias has raged.

But in this corner of Djugu territory in the village of Dhendro, farmers are unequivocal in their support for the U.N. force known by the acronym MONUSCO. The farmers, many displaced from their homes by the conflict, shelter in camps near the U.N. bases.

“I came here because of the presence of MONUSCO. It’s thanks to their presence that I’m going to the field; otherwise I’m afraid,” 23-year-old Lokana Heritier, who left his village to live closer to the blue helmets, told Reuters.

MONUSCO has been deployed in Congo since 2010, when it took over from an earlier U.N. operation to secure the troubled eastern region that borders Rwanda.

The operation to guard farmers who grow corn, beans, potatoes and manioc is known as “Secure Harvest” and it aims to allow them to work freely during the harvesting season and provide protection from militia groups who steal produce and kill people.

“The main objective is to secure the farmers in their farmland when they are working. We believe this is directly linked to the protection of civilians that MONUSCO is mandated for,” Brigadier General Monzurul Alam told Reuters.

Last year, the U.N. Security Council approved the end of the mission at the request of President Felix Tshisekedi. The 13,500-strong force had faced attacks and protests over perceptions that it had failed to secure the population.

Congo’s government reversed course in July and asked MONUSCO to remain in Ituri and North Kivu provinces until conditions were met for the force’s departure, without providing further details.

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The price index, compiled by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to track the most globally traded food commodities, increased to 127.5 points last month from a revised 126.9 points in October, the highest level in 19 months and up 5.7 per cent from a year ago.

The vegetable oil index jumped 7.5 per cent above levels seen a month ago and 32 per cent above those seen a year earlier, driven by concerns over lower than expected palm oil output due to excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia.

Soyoil prices rose on stronger global import demand, while rapeseed and sunflower oil also increased.

Other food price indexes declined.

Cereal prices dropped 2.7 per cent from October thanks to weaker wheat and rice prices, while sugar fell 2.4 per cent from October as India and Thailand began crushing and concerns over Brazil’s crop prospects eased.

In a separate report, the FAO trimmed its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 from 2.848 billion metric tons to 2.841 billion, a 0.6 per cent decline from last year but still the second largest output on record.

World cereal utilisation, meanwhile, is set to increase 0.6 per cent to 2.859 billion tons in 2024/25 thanks to growing consumption.

As a result, the FAO expects the cereal stocks-to-use ratio to fall to 30.1 per cent at the close of the 2025 season from 30.8 per cent previously, but still indicating a “comfortable level of global supply”.

— Reporting by Maytaal Angel

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A price index compiled by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to track the most globally traded food commodities increased to 127.4 points last month, up two per cent from a revised 124.9 points in September.

That put the index up 5.5 per cent from a year ago and marked its highest since April 2023, though it was 20.5 per cent below a record from March 2022 reached after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the data showed.

Prices of all categories rose apart from meat, with vegetable oils jumping more than seven per cent from the previous month, supported by concerns over palm oil production, the FAO said.

The overall index extended gains from September when it had reached its highest since July 2023 on the back of surging sugar prices.

Persisting concerns over the 2024/25 production outlook in Brazil supported a more moderate increase for sugar prices in October when they advanced 2.6 per cent, the FAO said.

Cereal prices edged up 0.8 per cent from September.

Wheat rose amid concerns over northern hemisphere planting conditions and following the introduction of an unofficial Russian export price floor, while maize was also higher, the FAO said.

Dairy prices rose nearly two per cent, supported by cheese and butter, which both faced strong demand and limited available supply, the agency said.

Overall meat prices edged down 0.3 per cent. Pork saw the sharpest decline while poultry ticked lower, in contrast to beef that rose on the back of increased international demand.

In a separate cereal report, the FAO trimmed its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 to 2.848 billion metric tons from 2.853 billion projected a month ago.

The revision left expected output down 0.4 per cent from the previous year but it remained the second-largest level on record.

— Reporting by Gus Trompiz

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The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 118.3 points in March, up from a revised 117.0 points the previous month, the agency said on Friday.

The February reading was the lowest for the index since February 2021 and marked a seventh consecutive monthly decline.

International food prices have fallen sharply from a record peak in March 2022 at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of fellow crop exporter Ukraine.

The FAO’s latest monthly reading was 7.7 per cent below the year-earlier level, it said.

In March, the agency’s vegetable oil price index led gains, jumping 8 per cent month on month, with all major oils registering increases.

The dairy index gained 2.9 per cent for a sixth straight monthly rise, driven by cheese and butter prices, while the FAO’s meat index added 1.7 per cent, reflecting higher poultry, pig and beef prices.

Those gains outweighed declines for cereals, which shed 2.6 per cent from February, and for sugar, which fell 5.4 per cent.

Wheat led the decline in cereals amid strong export competition and cancelled purchases by China, offsetting a slight rise for maize (corn) prices partly due to logistical difficulties in Ukraine, the FAO said.

Weaker sugar prices mainly reflected an upward revision to expected production in India and an improved harvest pace in Thailand, it said.

In separate cereal supply and demand data, the FAO nudged up its forecast for world cereal production in 2023/24 to 2.841 billion metric tons from 2.840 million projected last month, up 1.1 per cent from the previous season.

For upcoming crops, the agency trimmed its forecast for 2024 global wheat output to 796 million tons, from 797 million last month, due to reduced expectations for European Union and UK crops following rain-hit sowing and dry conditions in some areas.

For maize, a fall in world production was anticipated but the volume would remain above the average of the past five years, the FAO said, without giving a precise forecast.

—Reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz

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In the 28-year history of the Conference of the Parties, agriculture has always taken a backseat. The 2023 meetings brought food production forward, not as the saving grace for global food insecurity, but as the culprit for climate change and the emitter of one-third of all greenhouse gases. And front and centre in the discussion were livestock and the accusation that their contribution to methane was paramount.

Experts claimed that livestock, that being farmed ruminants, were responsible for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the narrow scope of one study, that spurred one of the three main directives of the conference, which was innovation in the livestock sector.

The 150 signatories, of which Canada was one, affirmed “that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform in order to respond to the imperatives of climate change.” Furthermore, the declaration said that “to achieve these aims – according to our own national circumstances – we commit to expediate the integration of agriculture and food systems into our climate action and simultaneously, to mainstream climate action across our policy agendas and actions related to agriculture and food systems.”

• MORE with Brenda Schoepp: From Beyond Meat to the return of meat

At first glance, it appears we are making progress with the promotion of cross-ministry policies. But Canada’s total output for all of agriculture is slight at 10 per cent of greenhouse gases and our nation’s response was not joint and did not come from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. It came prepackaged and ready to go from Environment and Climate Change Canada and was announced immediately following the COP28 meetings.

In the complex protocols for Canada’s program to incentivize beef producers to reduce methane emissions, it appears that to apply the protocols into practical action involves the assistance of a beef cattle scientist or researcher specializing in ruminants.

There is no indication at this time of the incentive or penalty within the context of the program, other than one line that claims there is an opportunity to generate offset credit.

It is not the project and related initiatives that are so concerning. Perhaps these will bring a long-needed boost to livestock research and attract more scientists, which is a positive outcome.

However, Canada agreed to expedite agriculture and food into climate action. Without in-depth consultation, that may have negative impact to an industry already suffering from high input costs and weather challenges. Neither Chief Climate Negotiator Michael Bonser nor Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault have served in any agricultural capacity in their careers.

Also concerning is the sudden emergence of methane expert groups. An example is the Expert Panel on Livestock Methane, a group of six academics who provide daily and very dire predictions. Their mandate is to reduce the emissions from livestock and reduce global livestock numbers.

One post recently read “1 million + premature deaths per year. Methane emissions from livestock contribute ground level ozone, a harmful gas that is responsible for one in five of all respiratory deaths.”

Shocking and also fraudulent. The sole source was an article in which mortality was estimated in males over 30 years old from poor air quality caused by nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, methane and carbon dioxide in India, Pakistan, China, U.S. and Europe.

Ruminant producers, but especially beef producers, have been caught in a vortex of environmental emotion that is not supported by accurate science or informed advocates. Regardless of the conversation in some circles from those who may have never seen a cow, from either end, the reality is that when it comes to cattle, 53 per cent of the global population live in India, Brazil and China.

India, home to nearly 33 per cent of the world’s cattle, did not sign the declaration. And cattle are not the only ruminants on the planet.

There are 30 million wild deer, 68,000 giraffes, 1.4 million domestic sheep and goats (along with a multitude in the wild), 1.5 million moose, an unknown number of gazelles, 91 species of antelope in addition to yak and ox along with 204,000 buffalo and 15,000 head of bison.

And what of those with three-stomach compartments such as camels, of which there are 35 million domesticated and one million in the wild, and their relations such as alpacas and llamas? Are they contributing more than a monogastric such as a horse and, in doing so, are they also to be considered climate culprits?

Selecting the domesticated and most docile ruminant is certainly an efficient route when it comes to understanding the science behind rumination, but it is hardly representative of the mass of animals in the world with four compartments for food digestion.

There is a gap in understanding of the role of ruminants to use grass and other digestibles to produce milk, meat and much needed byproducts and to generate manure – one of the most valuable assets on earth, particularly in the face of soil depletion and dehydration and the need for alternative fuel sources.

For Canadian farmers with just 1.2 per cent of the global cattle population, the conversation itself is a challenge, as the industry and policy makers are short on accurate data.

For farmers and ranchers of all ruminants, the next few years will require additional research and strong advocacy to ensure they are not penalized nor put to pasture for producing food and valuable byproducts that do more to address climate change than ridding the earth of cattle in their natural environment.

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WFP’s Ukraine director, Matthew Hollingworth, said a forthcoming report by the U.N. Human Rights Office (OHCHR) would show that since mid-July there have been 31 documented attacks on Ukraine’s grain production and export facilities.

He told the U.N. Security Council that “28 of these attacks were in Odesa oblast alone, which is home of the vital Black Sea and Danube River terminals essential for global trade.”

“If attacks on food infrastructure and the blockage of sea export routes continue, it will dramatically impact the agricultural production outlook over years to come, and may, in a worst-case scenario, lead to wheat production being unable to meet domestic and export demand,” Hollingworth said.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the Security Council on Tuesday that Moscow targets military infrastructure, not civilian infrastructure.

The United Nations has blamed Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine for worsening a global food crisis. Ukraine and Russia are both major grain exporters. Russia also is a big supplier of fertilizer to the world.

Russia’s agriculture minister said last week that Moscow had begun free grain shipments totaling up to 200,000 tonnes to six African states, as promised by President Vladimir Putin in July.

Hollingworth said that before the war Ukraine made up nine per cent of global wheat exports, 15 per cent of maize and 44 per cent of sunflower oil.

U.N. officials are trying to revive the Black Sea grain deal, which Russia quit in July — a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — complaining that its own food and fertilizer exports faced obstacles and that not enough Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Reuters earlier this month that it will be difficult to revive the Black Sea deal, under which nearly 33 million metric tonnes of Ukraine grain were exported.

Ukraine launched what it calls a temporary export corridor in August to allow agricultural exports as an alternative arrangement. More than 700,000 metric tonnes of grain have left Ukrainian ports via the new route.

— Michelle Nichols reports for Reuters from the United Nations.

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U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths also attended the meetings virtually, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “continues in his determination to facilitate the unimpeded access to global markets for food products and fertilizers from both Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” Dujarric said.

He added that Grynspan and Griffiths’ consultations with Russia “are taking place with this goal in mind.”

The United Nations has blamed Russia’s war in Ukraine for worsening a global food crisis. Ukraine and Russia are both major grain exporters and Moscow is also a big supplier of fertilizer to the world.

U.N. officials are working to try and revive a deal that had allowed the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain.

Russia quit the pact in July — a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — complaining that its own food and fertilizer exports faced obstacles and that not enough Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need.

While Russian exports of food and fertilizer are not subject to Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has said restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have hindered shipments.

To convince Russia to agree to the Black Sea deal last year, U.N. officials said they would help facilitate Russian exports.

Guterres sent Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov a letter in August outlining measures that the United Nations could help to improve Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports in a bid to convince Moscow to return to a deal.

Lavrov said late last month that Russia has not rejected the U.N. proposals, but described them as “simply not realistic.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Michelle Nichols at the U.N.

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