According to the first outlook for the marketing year from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, total world wheat production for 2021-22 is forecast to hit a record 789 million tonnes, which would compare with the 776.1 million tonnes grown the previous year.

Total world wheat usage is forecast to increase by eight million tonnes on the year, leaving world ending stocks of 295 million tonnes, only up slightly from the 294.7 million-tonne projected wheat carryout for the current marketing year, USDA said in its world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Wednesday.

Of the totals, U.S. wheat production in 2021-22 is forecast at 51 million tonnes, which would be up from 49.7 million tonnes the previous year. Wheat class estimates will be released in July.

USDA forecast Canada’s wheat crop at 32 million tonnes, which would be down from the 35.2 million tonnes grown the previous year.

The post USDA expects record world wheat crop in 2021-22 appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“You can’t find canola anywhere in the country and the stocks that are out there, a lot of them are already spoken for,” Klassen said, noting there are very tight stocks as well for barley.

The federal agency on Friday issued its stocks of principal field crops for March 31, which pegged total canola stocks in the country at 6.57 million tonnes. That’s 37.7 per cent below the stocks at the same point last year, and 30.2 per cent under the five-year average.

“The canola number was below market expectations. We’ve seen some pretty good demand here in the first eight to nine months of the crop year. As we get closer to the end, the export demand will have to taper off.”

The tightness of barley stocks is in a very similar situation, Klassen said, calling them “historically tight.”

In the Statistics Canada report, total barley stocks were 2.81 million tonnes and 20.5 per cent less than a year ago. Also, current stocks were 21.6 per cent under the five-year average.

With that in mind, the trader said it’s imperative for barley usage to be reduced from now until July, which would require price rationing.

“To see another $50 to $80 [per tonne] jump in barley wouldn’t surprise me,” Klassen said.

“We need to see every feedlot in Western Canada switch over to wheat.”

Of wheat, Klassen thought it came off quite well in the report at 16.23 million tonnes, 13.6 per cent less than stocks a year ago. When compared to the five-year average, current stocks were down 4.5 per cent.

At 2.75 million tonnes, durum stocks were lower as well, slipping 16.7 per cent from a year ago, according to the federal agency. When compared to the five-year average, durum fell 21.8 per cent.

Unlike canola and barley, Klassen said the demand for durum has eased quite a bit with little threat of running out.

“Durum is going to resort to the feed market value,” he stated, noting red spring milling wheat is likely to follow along.

The post Canada left with very tight canola, barley stocks appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The government agency pegged total canola stocks in the country as of Dec. 31 at 12.14 million tonnes, down from 15.91 million on Dec. 31, 2019, and from the five-year average of 14.4 million. Stocks were the tightest since 2012.

Canada grew 18.72 million tonnes of canola in 2020-21, down about 900,000 from the previous year. However, exports through the first 26 weeks of the crop year, at 6.2 million tonnes, are well above the 4.58 million moved by the end of January in 2019-20, according to Canadian Grain Commission data.

Domestic usage has also moved slightly ahead of the year ago pace, at 5.39 million tonnes.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is currently forecasting canola ending stocks of 1.2 million tonnes by July 31, 2021, which would be down from 3.13 million the previous year. However, given the current usage pace, stocks could be even tighter and the futures market has trended higher in an effort to ration some of the demand.

Canadian wheat stocks as of Dec. 31, at 24.85 million tonnes, were down by a million tonnes from the previous year, but slightly above the five-year average of 24.18 million.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s stocks report for the period ended Dec. 31, 2020, in millions of metric tonnes.

The post StatsCan confirms canola stocks tightening appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The London-based organization released its report on Jan. 23, in which it revised its previous forecast — but with those figures largely remaining above estimates for 2018-19.

The IGC forecast global opening stocks at 265.1 million tonnes, down 5.4 million tonnes from the previous year. In December, the council pegged opening stocks at 265.3 million tonnes.

Production was revised by 500,000 tonnes, lowered to 761.1 million tonnes. However, that was still 3.8 per cent above the IGC’s 2018-19 estimate.

That meant the total global supply was forecast to reach 1.026 billion tonnes, for a slight drop of nearly 0.6 per cent from December. But that remains ahead of the 1.004 billion tonnes estimated in 2018-19.

Total use slipped from December to January by 0.2 per cent at 754.1 million tonnes, but that was 15.5 million more than the previous year.

Exports are expected to be higher in 2019-20, at 174.6 million tonnes, said the IGC. That’s an increase from December’s estimate of 1.5 million and it would be a 3.4 per cent increase from 2018-19’s estimates.

Closing stocks were upped from 271 million tonnes in December to 272.1 million in the IGC’s January report — a rise of 2.6 per cent from the previous year’s estimates.

Table: Top wheat producing countries, 2019-20, in millions of tonnes.

The post IGC calls for more wheat despite lowering global forecast appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Wet weather, including heavy snow in some regions, continued to keep farmers off of their fields across much of Western Canada, but producers were actively delivering canola and other grains.

Farmers delivered 719,300 tonnes of canola into commercial positions during the week ended Sunday, according to the CGC. That was roughly double what moved the previous week and represents a record weekly total in data going back to 2007.

Exports and domestic usage were both up slightly on the week, but the record producer deliveries saw visible supplies rise to 1.086 million tonnes, from 977,600 tonnes the previous week.

That marks the first time visible canola supplies have been above one million tonnes in the 2019-20 crop-year-to-date.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

The post Canadian canola deliveries hit weekly record appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Farmers delivered 422,500 tonnes of canola during week 45 of the 2018-19 crop year — down slightly from the previous week, but well above the year-to-date weekly average of 364,000 tonnes.

Total visible supplies reached 1.029 million tonnes, up from 909,000 tonnes the previous week, and the first time stocks were above one million since May 5.

Canola exports of 144,000 tonnes during the week were off the year-to-date weekly average of 185,000 tonnes. Total exports, with only seven weeks to go in the crop year, reached 8.045 million tonnes, roughly 900,000 tonnes off of the previous year’s pace.

Domestic usage was also low on the week at 140,200 tonnes — about 40,000 tonnes below the average weekly pace. Total domestic usage to date, at 8.107 million tonnes, remains in line with the 2017-18 pace.

While canola exports may be slow, Canadian grain exports continue to run ahead of last year’s pace.

Canada has exported 15.923 million tonnes of wheat so far in 2018-19, about two million tonnes ahead of the year-ago pace. Total barley exports, at 2.07 million tonnes, are about 300,000 tonnes ahead of 2017-18 exports at this time.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

The post Visible Canadian canola stocks back above one million tonnes appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Domestic corn and wheat stocks are also expected to drop due to smaller harvests, according to the government’s monthly supply and demand report.

USDA, in its initial estimate of the 2018-19 marketing year, pegged soybean ending stocks at 415 million bushels, down from its forecast of 530 million bushels for 2017-18.

Soybean futures, which had been trading slightly higher throughout the morning, jumped more than one per cent to session highs after the report was released.

Analysts’ forecast for soybean ending stocks had ranged from 400 million to 715 million for 2018-19 and 495 million to 575 million for 2017-18, according to a Reuters survey.

“U.S. soybean ending stocks were a big surprise,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc. “They didn’t cut new-crop exports and implied very strong demand likely based on Argentina for the remainder of the new-crop year.”

For corn, USDA put ending stocks at 1.682 billion bushels for 2018-19 and 2.182 billion bushels for 2017-18, in line with market forecasts.

Wheat ending stocks were seen at 955 million bushels for 2018-19 and 1.07 billion bushels for 2017-18, both of which were above the average of analysts’ estimates.

CBOT soft red winter wheat futures, which were trading close to unchanged, sank nearly two per cent to their lowest since April 30 as the market digested the data.

USDA pegged U.S. winter wheat production at 1.192 billion bushels, down six per cent from a year ago, due to drought in key production states such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Harvested winter wheat acreage was seen falling to a record low of 24.8 million.

The government estimated the U.S. soybean harvest for 2018-19 at 4.28 billion bushels, down from 4.392 billion a year earlier. Soybean exports were seen rising to 2.29 billion bushels from 2.065 billion, while the domestic crush was projected to rise by five million bushels to 1.995 billion.

The U.S. corn harvest was forecast at 14.04 billion bushels in 2018-19, down from 14.604 billion bushels in 2017-18. Exports were seen falling to 2.1 billion bushels from 2.225 billion bushels.

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters commodities correspondent based in Chicago; additional reporting by Theopolis Waters in Chicago.

The post USDA sees U.S. corn, soy, wheat supplies falling in 2018-19 appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The state’s first ever mandatory cutbacks in water use were imposed by Democratic Governor Jerry Brown as the state entered its fourth year of devastating drought last spring, leading to a savings of 1.19 million acre-feet of water — about the amount used annually by the cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego combined.

“Californians rose to the occasion, reducing irrigation, fixing leaks, taking shorter showers, and saving our precious water resources in all sorts of ways,” said Felicia Marcus, chair of the State Water Resources Control Board, which developed the regulations and is responsible for enforcing them.

Under the rules, California residents and businesses were required to cut back their usage by up to 36 per cent over 2013, in a range determined by a combination of geography and past conservation efforts. All told, they conserved by 24 percent, close to the 25 per cent goal set by Brown in an emergency order issued by Brown last April.

Regulators are weighing whether to lift or adjust the cutbacks following a wet winter that has left the northern part of the state with a plentiful water supply.

The State Water Resources Control Board is set to reconsider the orders at a series of meetings later this month, as consumers and water utilities chafe under the continued burden.

“We need to adjust to reflect the reality we’re in, while still being mindful of the fact that we don’t know what next year is going to bring,” Marcus said Monday.

One water district, responding to consumers who are irate that they must continue to conserve even as their local reservoir is reaching flood-control levels, has on its own told residents that they will no longer require cutbacks.

“It’s very hard to maintain your credibility when residents can see the lake spilling for flood control purposes,” yet stringent cutbacks are still being enforced, said Keith Durkin, assistant general manager of the San Juan Water District, which serves the community of Granite Bay and other suburbs east of Sacramento with water from Folsom Lake.

— Sharon Bernstein is a California political correspondent for Reuters in Sacramento.

The post California rules led to near 25 per cent cut in water use appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.