India

The USDA attaché in New Delhi projected India’s 2026/27 canola production at 12.10 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 2025/26 harvest of 11.90 million.

While yields are expected to hold at 1.31 tonnes per hectare, the attaché forecast Indian farmers to harvest more area – 9.25 million hectares versus 9.10 million in 2025/26.

“(Canola) is expected to remain profitable, with prices sufficient to cover input costs and ensure solid margins for growers,” the attaché wrote.

WHY IT MATTERS: India is among the largest canola producers in the world and Japan is a major oilseed importer.

Despite India being one of the world’s top canola growers, the country does not import or export the crop.

The New Delhi desk estimated the domestic crush will bump up to 10.90 million tonnes from 10.70 million, while domestic consumption is to match the 2026/27 crop. Ending stocks are to hold at 569,000 tonnes.

Japan

As for Japan, it will continue to be one of the major canola importers. However those for 2026/27 are to dip to 2.15 million tonnes from 2.16 million the year before.

The USDA attaché in Tokyo said the bulk of Japan’s canola imports come from Canada, but the supplier’s share has dropped from about 96 per cent of Japan’s imports to around 83 per cent. Australia has remained a major source of canola for Japan.

“Japanese crushers have noted higher oil extraction rates from Australian canola compared to Canadian seeds, though meal extraction rates are converse,” the attaché said.

Japan’s domestic canola crop is to be only 3,000 tonnes.

Virtually all of the country’s canola will be crushed, with a mere 5,000 tonnes for feed, waste and domestic consumption.

Ending stocks are to remain stable at 200,000 tonnes.

The post India, Japan canola crops to be steady in 2026/27 – USDA appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.

USDA forecasts seeded acres for 2026/27

The USDA predicted corn planting intentions at 95.34 million acres, which is down from 98.79 million acres U.S. farmers seeded last year, but less than the market projection of 94.37 million.

The shift away from corn to soybeans was not as large as the trade believed there was going to be.

“That was the big conversation, how many corn acres there was going to be, especially with the beans this year,” said Ryan Etnner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Illinois.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

The report placed soybean acres at 84.70 million, up from 81.22 million last year, but short of the market projection of 85.55 million.

Ettner said the total wheat acres caught his eye, with how close the USDA was to the trade guess. The department placed its forecast at 43.78 million acres and trade called for 44.79 million. Last year, farmers planted 45.33 million acres of wheat.

Fertilizer issues could be down the road

The broker added that rising fertilizer prices did not have as great an effect on the switch from corn to soybeans. He said most U.S. farmers apply their fertilizer in the fall and what will go on the fields this spring was largely bought before the Middle East war.

“The bigger concern is fall of this year, if things don’t calm down over there by that point,” Ettner said. “Most people are assuming this is a larger 2027 issue if the war is still going on by the fall.”

USDA Planting Intentions (Millions of acres)

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

Grain stocks

As for grain stocks as of March 1, Ettner said there was some pre-report speculation that total corn could be as high as 9.30 billion bushels.

“The quarterly stocks all came in line. The one concern was ‘what if corn had come in bigger?’ and it didn’t,” Ettner said.

He added that corn stocks were going to be very large simply because of the size of the 2025/26 harvest.

USDA Grain Stocks as of March 1 (Billions of bushels)

The post CBOT Weekly: USDA predicts declines in planting intentions appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

The post USDA attachés forecast some changes in China’s oilseeds, cereals appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

WHY IT MATTERS: Egypt is a major wheat importer and its purchases affect world prices

Egypt is one of the world’s largest importers of the cereal, relying heavily on those from Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. The USDA attaché forecast Egyptian wheat imports for 2026/27 at 12.50 million tonnes, down 200,000 from the year before. That’s due to the Cairo desk having projected Egypt’s wheat output increasing by 600,000 tonnes at 9.80 million.

The attaché said harvested wheat area expanded by 170,000 hectares at 1.50 million in 2026/27 because of higher domestic prices. However, for that crop year, projected Egyptian wheat yields were to fall to 6.53 tonnes per hectare from 6.92.

There’s to be a jump in Egypt’s total supply in 2026/27, at 26.07 million tonnes versus 24.77 million in 2025/26.

For daily markets news and updates visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

Although a major importer of wheat, Egypt is also an important exporter of wheat flour, especially to several African and Middle East countries. Exports in 2026/27 are expected to improve by 200,000 tonnes at 1.20 million tonnes.

The country’s wheat ending stocks are forecast to increase to 4.57 million tonnes from 3.77 million in 2025/26.

As for other crops, the Cairo desk said Egypt is expected to grow more corn with production bumping up to seven million tonnes in 2026/27, with imports also edging up to 10.50 million. There’s to be a small uptick in ending stocks at 1.79 million tonnes.

The attaché projected Egyptian milled and rough rice production to remain at 4.20 million and 6.09 million tonnes, respectively in 2026/27. The rice carryover is set to increase to 671,000 tonnes from 491,000 in 2025/26.

The post Egyptian wheat imports to be firm as domestic output increases appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Corn

• Projected 2025-26 ending stocks for U.S. corn were unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, down nine million from the average trade estimate, but well above the 1.551 billion reported for 2024-25.
• Corn production and exports were also unchanged from February at 17.021 billion and 3.3 billion bushels, respectively.
• Global corn carryout was projected at 292.75 million tonnes, up 4.77 million from February, due to increased production and an upward revision to the 2024-25 carryout, which stands at 295.82 million.

Soybeans

• The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks estimate stayed put at 350 million bushels from last month, up six million from the average trade estimate and up 25 million from the 2024-25 figure.
• Production and exports remained the same at 4.262 billion and 1.575 billion bushels, respectively.
• Projected U.S. soyoil carryout was up 30 million pounds at 1.782 billion, while soymeal carryout was unchanged at 450 million short tons.
• The global soybean carryout estimate was trimmed by 200,000 tonnes at 125.31 million, which is 1.47 million above the upwardly revised 2024-25 carryout. Production was down one million tonnes at 427.18 million. Global soymeal carryout was down 180,000 tonnes at 19.33 million, while global soyoil carryout was up 70,000 tonnes at 6.20 million.

Wheat

• Projected U.S. wheat carryout for 2025-26 was unchanged from the previous month at 931 million bushels, up five million from the average trade estimate. Last year’s ending stocks totalled 855 million.
• Production and exports also remained the same at 1.985 billion and 900 million bushels, respectively.
• The global wheat carryout estimate was cut by 550,000 tonnes at 276.96 million despite increased production.

South America

• The USDA lifted its projected 2025-26 Brazilian corn production by one million tonnes at 132 million with ending stocks up 2.28 million tonnes at 5.96 million. In Argentina, production was down one million tonnes at 52 million with ending stocks down 800,000 tonnes at 5.09 million. Brazilian and Argentine corn production in 2024-25 were 136 million and 50 million tonnes, respectively.
• The projected Brazilian soybean crop was unchanged at 180 million tonnes with carryout also steady at 37.91 million. In Argentina, soybean production was cut by 500,000 tonnes at 48 million with ending stocks unchanged at 22.92 million. In 2024-25, Brazil and Argentina produced 171.5 million and 51.11 million tonnes of soybeans, respectively.

Grain, soy futures hit highs on war worries

Prices for fertilizer and fuel spiked as the war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, shut down fertilizer plants in the Middle East and upset shipping routes. The disruptions have left some farmers in the Northern Hemisphere ​scrambling for supplies just as they prepare to put seeds in the ground.

U.S. grain and soy futures touched multi-month highs on Monday, despite expectations for ample supplies, as traders worried the war would drag on and oil prices rallied. Traders also assessed the potential for U.S. farmers to cut back on plantings of corn because it requires high rates of nitrogen fertilizer.

USDA did not adjust any of its estimates in a monthly supply and demand report based on the Middle East conflict, said Mark Jekanowski, chairman of USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.

“It’s way too early,” he said.

-With files from Tom Polansek/Reuters

The post USDA makes few changes in domestic figures appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

It’s quite common for the USDA’s various attachés worldwide to come up with different calculations than those from the department. Overall, the Buenos Aires desk was not too different from the USDA’s numbers, but there were a few exceptions.

February rains bolster crops

The attaché placed harvested area for soybeans to be 15.80 million hectares compared to 16.50 million from the USDA. Yields differed as well, with the attaché at 3.04 tonnes per hectare versus 2.94 by the department.

The attaché noted that Argentina experienced a drier than normal January, but the country received sufficient rain earlier this month to bolster its crops.

Imports, crush

While the USDA pegged Argentine soybean imports at 7.80 million tonnes, its Buenos Aires desk came in lower at seven million, due to the crush increasing from 42 million tonnes in 2024/25.

Both were close on Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean crush, with the attaché at 43 million tonnes and the USDA at 42.50 million.

Exports, carryover

One notable difference was in Argentina’s exports, with the USDA at 4.60 million tonnes and the attaché estimating six million. There was also a notable gap in feed, waste and domestic consumption with USDA at 7.20 million tonnes versus 5.50 million by the attaché.

That also led to a sizeable distance in ending stocks, with the USDA projecting 5.86 million tonnes at the Buenos Aires desk at 4.35 million.

Sunflowers, peanuts

For sunflower seeds, the attaché estimated Argentina’s production for 2025/26 at 5.80 million tonnes and ending stocks of 857,000 tonnes. The USDA calls were 5.50 million and 914,000 tonnes, respectively.

The Buenos Aires desk placed Argentina’s peanut production at 1.44 million tonnes compared to 1.50 million by the USDA. There was a wide difference in the carryover, with the attaché at 985,000 tonnes versus 473,000 by the USDA.

The post Reduced Argentine soybean harvest, bigger crush says USDA attaché appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins announced Feb. 19 that the USDA intended to purchase up to $263 million in dairy and agricultural products from U.S. farmers and producers to distribute to food banks and nutrition assistance programs across the country.

“From milk and dairy to fruits, legumes, and tree nuts, these staples are essential for feeding families and sustaining America’s agricultural economy,” said Rollins.

Pulses make up US$75 million of that total, with US$25 million allocated for edible beans, US$24 million for split peas, US$14 million for lentils and US$12 million for chickpeas. The remainder of the funds are slated for dairy, fresh fruit and nuts.

The purchases will be made through USDA’s authority under Section 32 of the Agriculture Act of 1935 with the stated goal of assisting producers and communities in need.

USA Pulses welcomed the move, with CEO Tim McGreevy noting in a Global Pulses report that the announcement provides “meaningful support for American pulse producers while helping deliver nutritious, affordable food to families across the country.”

He added that investment recognizes “the essential role pulses play in both uplifting rural and agricultural communities and promoting food security,” and noted the purchases will help “stabilize farm income, strengthen rural economies, and ensure food banks and nutrition assistance programs have access to shelf-stable, protein-rich foods.”

The post Pulse weekly: USDA to buy US$75 million in pulses as part of support package appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The two-day meeting this week in Arlington, Virginia, focused on a challenging farm economy that could see further headwinds after the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. The ruling handed a stinging defeat to the Republican president, with major implications for the global economy and potential ripple effects on the U.S. farm sector.

Trump has since vowed to levy a global 10 per cent tariff using other trade powers, but details are scant.

What USDA is doing

• The Farmer Bridge Assistance program is expected to distribute $11 billion in one-time payments to farmers. It’s a per-acre rate for those who planted one of the 19 commodity crops identified as being eligible for the program. Another $1 billion is slated for specialty crop producers.
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Friday that the agency will open the application process ahead of schedule on Monday.
• In December, Rollins said farmers who qualify could expect “payments in their bank accounts” by February 28 – six days after applications open.
• “These resources will help carry producers into the next season, truly a bridge, as purchase commitments and new trade deals take effect and input costs continue to decline,” Rollins told a packed ballroom at the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on Friday.
• Rollins did not immediately respond to questions about how USDA will process an expected flood of applications.
• Deep staffing cuts across the federal government last year, including at USDA’s Farm Service Agency offices in rural America, have slowed farmer access to many government services.
• The federal payments will not fully compensate farmers for financial losses that have topped $30 billion in recent years, economists and industry groups said.
• The aid will act as “a bridge until the improvements in the farm bill programs are realized on the farm,” John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.
• Earlier this month, USDA had forecast that U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7 per cent this year, despite near-record government payments expected to account for nearly 29 per cent of producers’ bottom line.
• USDA said it expects prices paid to farmers for corn, soybeans and wheat to rise slightly in the 2026/27 season, though prices remain well below recent highs.
• Average prices were projected at $4.20 a bushel for corn, $10.30 for soybeans and $5.00 for wheat — 10 cents higher than the current season and well below 2022/23 levels, USDA data showed.
• USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez said ad hoc farm aid, which has reached near-historic levels in recent years, has helped keep farmers in business during the downturn but likely supported input prices.

— Reporting by Karl Plume in Arlington, Virginia, and P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago

The post USDA defends $12 billion subsidy amid farm economy challenges appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

The post CBOT Weekly: Choppy futures looking for direction appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Farmers expect corn, the most widely grown U.S. crop, to hew close to break-even levels this year, supported by strong usage. Some see soybeans as riskier, given rising competition from Brazil and a volatile U.S. trade relationship with top buyer China.

“Right now, you absolutely cannot make money on beans,” said Tim Gregerson, who farms in eastern Nebraska. “You can probably break even on corn, but you are going to have to have an extraordinary yield, or a price increase,” Gregerson said.

Most growers in America’s Midwest farm belt grow both crops, alternating what gets planted on each field from year to year to boost soil health. Many add wheat, sorghum, cotton or other crops to their rotations. But among farmers who have some flexible acres where they can plant anything, many see corn as their best bet.

USDA revisions add challenges

Planting decisions for 2026, hashed out in the winter months, mark the first step in determining the amount of grain produced in the world’s largest corn exporting nation and the second-biggest soybean supplier after Brazil.

Decisions are particularly challenging this year after the U.S. Agriculture Department made unprecedented revisions in January to its estimate of the last season’s harvested corn acreage, which, along with larger-than-expected estimates of the 2025 corn yield and stocks on hand as of December 1, pushed down prices.

Ahead of the USDA’s annual outlook forum this week, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average projected corn plantings for 2026 at 94.9 million acres, down about four per cent from last year’s 89-year high, but still the second-most corn acres in 13 years. The poll put soybean plantings at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average and up from the 81 million acres seeded in 2025, a six-year low.

U.S. farmers grew the biggest corn crop in history last year at more than 17 billion bushels, stuffing the nation’s grain bins and weighing on Chicago Board of Trade corn futures.

However, a record pace of export sales and robust demand from ethanol producers has kept a floor under prices as acreage ideas for 2026 take shape.

Even with rising costs for inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, CBOT December corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering near $4.60 (C$6.28) a bushel, close to break-even levels for farmers.

“The market is signaling, ‘We don’t want you to cut too many corn acres.’ We don’t need as many as last year, but with today’s demand base, it’s not like we need a huge drop,” said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.

Pressures in farm country

Some U.S. farmers are struggling to stay solvent, even with increased government aid payments.

Soybeans cost less to grow, and demand from domestic crushers and the burgeoning biofuels industry should help offset diminished export sales due to trade tensions with China, by far the world’s largest buyer. China has purchased 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since a late-October trade truce.

But prospects of future U.S. soy exports are uncertain ahead of a planned April meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, farmers in Brazil have begun to reap a record-large soy harvest that should dominate the global soy trade.

“The soybean market is more of a political football than the corn market right now,” said Dan O’Brien, an economist with Kansas State University.

Big corn yields

Corn typically yields more than triple the grain per acre compared to soybeans. While a large output pressures prices, individual farmers can earn more. Last year’s national corn yield was the highest on record at 186.5 bushels per acre, and state records were set in the No. 3 and 4 growing states of Minnesota and Nebraska as well as states farther on the fringe of the Corn Belt, like North Dakota.

As they finish their cropping plans for 2026, farmers say they are looking for ways to cut costs. In Nebraska, Gregerson has stopped buying new machinery and has found ways to cut fertilizer use. He is considering cutting back on herbicide applications, but doing so would mean staying close to the farm throughout the growing season to scout crops especially closely.

“When you do that, you have live and die in a sprayer. You don’t go on vacation in the spring or the summer. You have got to be so timely on killing your weeds.”

In North Dakota, farmer Phil Volk says growers in his area are delaying machinery repairs, skipping niceties like growth-promoting seed treatments on soybeans, and devoting most of their input costs to corn, his most profitable crop in 2025. Volk expects to expand his corn acreage this spring by 15 per cent compared to last year.

“They are going to cut as many expenses on soybeans (as possible) and pour all the juice to corn,” Volk said.

— one acre equals 0.405 hectares

The post As U.S. agriculture flails, farmers see big corn acres as best bet to break even appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.