Interestingly, the coldest reading was also in Alberta, with Peace River coming in at a very chilly -12.9 C.

When it came to precipitation, Alberta was the wet spot in March, with all three locations reporting above-average amounts. Calgary saw the most moisture, with about 30 mm of precipitation, or 12 mm above average.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan didn’t have good news to report for farmers hoping to recharge soils heading into seeding. Precipitation in these provinces ranged from slightly below to well below average. Saskatoon was the driest location, with only 11.6 mm, and Brandon was the driest when compared to average, coming in at 12 mm below long-term average.

WHY IT MATTERS: March was cooler than average in most of the Prairies and conditions were moist in Alberta but drier through Saskatchewan and Manitoba — a split that matters heading into seeding.

Was this really a long winter?

Overall there seems to be a sense that this winter was a long one, probably because it held on harder than usual in March. But was it a particularly harsh winter? There the numbers aren’t so clear.

In the accompanying table I’ve gathered the temperature data for the winter. It shows average temperature and how much that differed from normal — or what’s known as the “anomaly.” It also shows total precipitation, the anomaly and per cent of average precipitation.

November to March: the full picture

For the November-to-March time frame, we can see Manitoba and Saskatchewan’s mean temperatures mainly occurred in a narrow band within half a degree of -11 C. Calgary was the warm spot, coming in at -3.3 C, while Peace River was the cold spot at -12.9 C.

If we compare these to the average, it becomes a bit more of a mixed bag. Dauphin and Saskatoon came in slightly below average. Winnipeg, Brandon and Edmonton came in slightly above average, while Calgary and Regina came in solidly above average.

Precipitation this past winter, at least according to the data from these stations, was mostly below average. All the stations but one reported below-average values, with amounts ranging from 62 per cent of average in Winnipeg to 88 per cent in Peace River. Calgary was again the exception, coming in at 116 per cent of average.

So overall, the winter of 2025-26 saw near- to above-average temperatures, except for the Peace River region of Alberta, which saw below-average temperatures. Precipitation was generally below average but not severely, with only the Calgary region reporting slightly above average amounts.

We will look at the longer-range forecasts for May to August later in April.

The post Weather whiplash: Alberta saw best and worst of winter this year appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

This term is used whether we are talking about the sun’s energy arriving at the top of the atmosphere or at the surface of the Earth. Since our atmosphere can affect the amount of the sun’s energy reaching the surface, scientists like to know how much energy is reaching the Earth at the top of the atmosphere. This insolation is called the solar constant.

The solar constant is the average amount of insolation received at the top of the atmosphere when the Earth is at its average distance from the sun and has a value of 1,361 watts per square metre. We need to use the average distance from the sun because Earth’s orbit is not perfectly round but is slightly elliptical. On average, the Earth is about 150 million kilometres from the sun. At its closest point, called perihelion, the Earth is about 147 million km from the sun — this occurs around Jan. 3. The furthest point, or aphelion, occurs around July 4 when the Earth is about 152 million km from the sun.

One question that has keeps popping up is, just how constant is the energy output from the sun? The best estimates put the variability of the solar constant around 0.1 to 0.2 per cent or about 1.2 to 2.0 watts per square metre. While there is no argument that even a fairly small change in the sun’s energy output can have big effects here on Earth — that is a topic for future article.

Now we know Earth receives energy from the sun at a fairly constant rate, and if Earth was a flat object pointing straight at the sun things would be pretty simple; but we are not flat, we are a sphere, and this creates all sorts of problems. Earth’s curved surface results in different parts of the Earth receiving different amounts of insolation. Areas of the Earth that have the sun directly overhead, so that the sun’s rays hit perpendicular to the Earth’s surface, will receive the maximum amount of insolation. The further away from perpendicular the sun’s rays are, the less insolation is received. For example, the equatorial regions receive 2.5 times more insolation than at the poles.

If we looked at the amount of insolation received at the surface we would find an even greater difference. Since the polar regions have a low solar angle, the energy from the sun has to travel through much more atmosphere when compared to the equatorial regions. This longer path results in more energy being absorbed and reflected, resulting in even less energy making it to the ground. This leads us to the next topic, net global radiation, the seasons, and their impact on Earth’s energy balance.

Net global radiation is the balance between incoming shortwave radiation from the sun and outgoing long-wave radiation from the Earth, as measured at the top of the atmosphere. We have surpluses of radiation in the equatorial regions, and a deficit poleward north and south of 36 degrees latitude. The areas with the greatest gains of radiation are over the Pacific and Indian oceans, right along the equator. The largest deficit of radiation is over Antarctica.

By looking at this simple picture of net global radiation, we can see the basics of what causes most of the weather around the world. We have a surplus of energy in the equatorial regions, while we have strong deficits in the polar regions. Weather is a result of the Earth trying to even out this imbalance. Of course, it is not that simple; there are plenty of other items that we must look at to truly understand the big picture.

Seasons change

The first item to look at are seasons: spring, summer, fall and winter. Most of us have a basic understanding of what causes the seasons, but did you know there are five reasons for the seasons:

Revolution, Rotation, Tilt, Axial parallelism, and Sphericity.

Let’s start with revolution, which is the Earth’s orbit around the sun. The Earth’s revolution, which takes 365.24 days, determines the length of each season. Secondly, we have the Earth’s rotation. Without our Earth rotating, the whole planet would basically have six months of daylight and six months of darkness. Due to our rotation, which takes approximately 24 hours to complete, we have 365 days in a year.

Next up is axial tilt. To picture this, imagine that the Earth is a spinning top that is doing a large orbit around the sun. Now, instead of picturing that top standing straight up and down, picture it leaning to one side — at an angle of about 23.5 degrees. This now means that one end of the Earth is pointing toward the sun, while the other end is pointing away from the sun. This explains why different parts of the Earth have differing amounts of daylight.

To tie this into the seasons we need to look at axial parallelism. What this means is that, while the Earth is a spinning top tilted to one side, it is always titled in the same direction. So, as the Earth revolves around the sun the tilt of the Earth remains in a constant direction, this means that for half of the year the southern part of our planet is pointed toward the sun and during the other half, the northern part is pointed towards the sun.

Our final reason for seasons has to do with the fact that the Earth is a sphere. This results in an uneven receipt of incoming solar radiation.

Next issue we’ll finish up our look at the seasons and then begin our look at the composition of the atmosphere.

The post How Earth evens out the energy input appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Looking back over the past 22 years, I noticed that every three years or so I tend to circle back to what I call my weather school articles. These are a series of pieces I originally wrote in 2008, designed to walk readers through many of the topics typically covered in a first-year meteorology or atmospheric science course.

These are courses I taught for several years, and rather than having you work through a textbook, I try to distill the main concepts and present them in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. The added bonus is that you do not have to study, write exams or pay for a university course, yet you still get the core ideas.

Start with the sun

To begin understanding how and why we experience weather here on Earth, we need to start at the source of nearly all the energy that drives our atmosphere: the sun. It is considered an average star by astronomical standards and is estimated to be about halfway through its expected lifespan of roughly 12 billion years. While it is relatively small compared to many other stars in the universe, it dominates our solar system, containing about 99 per cent of all the matter within it. The remaining one per cent is made up of the planets, moons, asteroids, comets and other assorted debris orbiting around it.

Most of the sun’s mass consists of hydrogen, the simplest and most abundant element in the universe. Deep inside the sun, the enormous pressure created by this mass raises temperatures to extreme levels. When conditions become hot enough, hydrogen atoms begin to fuse together to form helium. This process, known as nuclear fusion, releases tremendous amounts of energy in the form of heat.

Fusion has been occurring inside the sun for billions of years, and there is enough hydrogen fuel available for it to continue for billions of years more, so there is no reason to worry about the sun suddenly running out of energy.

Not surprisingly, given that our sun is a relatively stable and unremarkable star, the fusion of hydrogen into helium has been occurring at a remarkably steady rate. While scientists have observed very slight variations in the sun’s energy output over time, these changes are extremely small when compared to its overall energy production and are barely noticeable on human timescales.

As most of us already know, the sun supplies Earth with nearly all of its heat energy. The next logical question is how that energy actually makes its way from the sun to Earth. After all, space is a cold, near-empty vacuum, so energy cannot be transferred by conduction or convection. Instead, the energy arrives in the form of radiation — more specifically, electromagnetic radiation.

Sunlight science

For many people, the word radiation immediately brings to mind nuclear accidents, weapons, or dangerous invisible rays that cause illness. So how can radiation be responsible for sustaining life on Earth? The answer is that radiation comes in many different forms. Some types are harmful to organic life, while others are completely harmless and, in fact, essential. To understand the difference, we need to take a closer look at the electromagnetic spectrum.

If you examine the electromagnetic spectrum, you will quickly recognize several familiar forms of energy. At the low-energy end of the spectrum are radio and television waves. Near the middle lies visible light, the energy that allows us to see the world around us. At the high-energy end of the spectrum are more dangerous forms of radiation, such as ultraviolet radiation, X-rays and gamma rays.

All of these forms of radiation are simply waves of energy, and the amount of energy they carry depends on the length of their wavelength. Long wavelengths, such as radio waves, often measuring around a metre in length, carry relatively little energy. As wavelengths shorten, energy levels increase, moving through infrared and into the visible portion of the spectrum. Visible light waves are extremely small, measuring roughly 400 to 700 billionths of a metre.

Visible light

Given how hot the sun is, it might seem reasonable to assume that most of its energy would be emitted as high-energy radiation such as ultraviolet, X-rays or even gamma rays. While the sun does emit energy across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, the majority of the radiation that reaches Earth comes in the form of visible light. This turns out to be extremely important, as visible light can pass through the atmosphere relatively easily and be absorbed at Earth’s surface.

One of the most remarkable properties of electromagnetic radiation is its ability to travel through the vacuum of space and reach Earth. Once it arrives, that energy is either reflected back into space or absorbed by the surface and atmosphere, where it is converted into heat.

When we take Earth’s distance from the sun into account and calculate how much of the sun’s total energy actually reaches our planet, the result is surprisingly small — only about one two-billionth of the sun’s total energy output. Despite this, the amount of energy added to Earth’s system is enormous. On average, Earth receives approximately the equivalent of all the energy used by humanity in a entire year each hour.

Next time we’ll look at another related topic from weather school: insolation, the incoming radiation received by Earth, and the concept known as the solar constant.

The post Prairie weather all starts with the sun appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Many of our most memorable fall and winter storms, whether they bring heavy snow, strong winds or a sudden drop in temperature, originate from areas of low pressure that form immediately to the east of the Rocky Mountains.

One of these development zones sits over Alberta, producing what we fondly call an “Alberta Clipper,” while another forms farther south over Colorado, responsible for the infamous “Colorado Low.”

So, let’s revisit why the lee of the Rockies is such a breeding ground for storm systems and why certain lows grow into major weather makers while others barely organize at all.

We’ve previously discussed how the jet stream, with its sweeping curves and shifting speed, helps shape regions of rising and sinking air. When the jet accelerates, rising motion and low pressure often develop beneath it. When it slows, sinking air and high pressure tend to form. While this plays a supporting role, it doesn’t fully explain why lows so often take shape immediately east of the mountains.

To understand that, meteorologists talk about vorticity, a measure of how much spin an air parcel has. There are several types — absolute, relative and the Earth’s own vorticity — but the fine details can be complicated enough to test anyone’s patience. Instead, we’ll focus on the main ideas needed to understand how lee-side lows develop.

As you move closer to the equator, the Earth’s vorticity decreases. Relative vorticity, meanwhile, refers to the air parcel’s own spin — counterclockwise rotation adds positive vorticity and clockwise rotation adds negative.

The important concept is that absolute vorticity, which combines both the Earth’s vorticity and the parcel’s relative vorticity, stays constant unless something forces it to change. So, if an air parcel moves southward and the Earth’s vorticity drops, the parcel must gain relative vorticity to maintain the balance. If it moves northward, the opposite happens. Increasing vorticity encourages cyclonic (low pressure) development, while decreasing vorticity promotes anticyclonic (high pressure) behaviour.

Upward bound

Now imagine Pacific air flowing eastward toward the Rockies. When it reaches the mountains, it is forced upward. At the same time, the tropopause acts like a rigid ceiling, preventing the air from expanding upward as much as it would like. The result is that the atmospheric column becomes squeezed vertically and must, in turn, spread out horizontally. When the column becomes shallower, its absolute vorticity decreases. Because the Earth’s vorticity hasn’t changed at that moment, the parcel’s relative vorticity also has to decrease. This gives the air an anticyclonic, or southeastward, turn as it flows over the mountains and spills down their eastern slopes.

Once the air begins drifting southeast of the Rockies, however, it is now entering a region of lower Earth vorticity. To compensate, its relative vorticity must increase. This creates a cyclonic bend in the flow, turning the air northeastward. Put together, these shifts form a trough of low pressure stretching along the lee of the mountains — a crucial first step in the development of an Alberta Clipper or Colorado Low.

The next question is why some of these troughs intensify dramatically while others fade. The Rockies themselves play a major part. These are among the tallest mountains on the continent, and their height forces a dramatic squeeze on the air column. The stronger the squeeze, the more the vorticity must adjust, and the deeper the resulting trough. But a trough alone is not enough to guarantee a storm. If it were, we would be dealing with a constant conveyor belt of major lows sweeping across the Prairies all winter long.

Other factors at play

To develop into a significant system, several additional ingredients must align. Cold Arctic air often slides southward along the mountains, while warmer, moister air waits to the south. When the developing low taps into both air masses, a strong temperature gradient forms which is a key source of energy for strengthening storms. The moisture adds even more fuel as it rises and condenses, releasing heat that intensifies the system. When these ingredients line up perfectly, an Alberta Clipper can quickly spin up and race eastward, bringing snow, wind, and rapid temperature changes.

Colorado Lows, meanwhile, owe much of their punch to their southern position. Like Clippers, they draw cold air from the north, but they also have access to warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico. Because the Gulf is one of the most reliable moisture sources for the continent, these systems sometimes tap into deep, sustained humidity. As this warm moist air rises and condenses, it releases a tremendous amount of heat, fueling rapid development. This is why Colorado Lows can grow into sprawling, slow-moving storms capable of affecting vast regions at once.

Still, not every setup produces a major event. A storm might have abundant moisture but lack Arctic air, limiting snowfall and reducing the system’s strength. A promising low might start strengthening only after it has moved east of us, missing the Prairies entirely. Other times, a lack of cold air shifts the storm track farther west, producing more rain than snow or allowing the system to slide too far south to have much impact.

With so many moving parts like the jet stream position, mountain effects, temperature contrasts, moisture supply and timing, it’s no surprise that forecasting these systems can be challenging.

Whether all the ingredients will come together for a major storm this winter remains an open question, but one thing is certain: the unique geography of the Rockies will continue shaping our storm season, just as it has for generations.

The post The lowdown on winter storms on the Prairies appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

From heat that pushed cities to their limits, to fire seasons that refused to end, to water arriving all at once or not at all, the planet delivered a steady stream of reminders about how quickly conditions can shift. What we are going to look at is a broad, worldwide view at some of the major weather themes of 2025.

Tinderbox conditions

Persistent heat was the headline almost everywhere. Long, unbroken stretches of high temperatures settled across Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and parts of North America. It seemed like summer arrived early, stayed late, and left little room for relief.

In several regions, temperatures climbed high enough that energy grids were stressed, and outdoor workers were pushed to their limits. What stood out wasn’t just the intensity of the heat, but how far it reached. Places accustomed to heat struggled just as much as regions that normally expect a break between hot spells. The message was simple: extreme heat is becoming a fixture, not a visitor.

Several major fire zones flared up early, and many burned long past their traditional endpoints. Canada and parts of Europe found themselves once again under thick smoke as sprawling fires worked their way through forests dried out by months of below-average rainfall.

Fire crews often battled a combination of high winds and low humidity, making suppression difficult. Smoke travelled thousands of kilometres, dimming skies far from the fires’ origin. At one point, Americans were getting mad at us for sending smoke their way.

Rain, rain, go away

On the opposite end of the spectrum, several countries had to navigate severe flooding. Monsoon rains in parts of South Asia were stronger than usual, pushing rivers into surrounding farmland and communities. Elsewhere, short-lived but powerful storm systems triggered flash floods that swept through urban corridors and mountain valleys. Some areas spent part of the year in deep drought and later dealt with swollen waterways.

These quick swings highlighted how modern flood risk increasingly depends on short-duration extremes rather than just long seasonal trends.

Tropical cyclone activity in 2025 delivered more intensity than volume. Some basins came in near or even a touch below their usual storm counts, yet the systems that did develop really packed a punch.

In the Atlantic, the season finished with 13 named storms and five hurricanes, and an impressive four of those reached major-hurricane strength. The standout was Hurricane Melissa, a powerful Category 5 that tore across Jamaica late in the season, and was the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world in 2025.

Melting away

Farther north, the Arctic continued down its long-term trajectory of ice loss. Winter’s peak ice coverage set yet another record low, and by the end of summer, the melt season had carved out one of the smallest minimums. With less ice comes warmer water, which means more open ocean for weather systems to draw energy from, this in turn results in subtle but meaningful bends in the jet stream, which eventually impacts our weather in ways we are just trying to figure out.

Northern communities felt the effects of the ice loss firsthand, with eroding shorelines, and shifting wildlife habits.

Human impact

Another issue that impacted the planet was air quality, with smoke, dust, heat and industrial pollution dragging it down. Cities on multiple continents issued repeated advisories, asking residents to limit outdoor activity when possible. Even regions far from wildfire zones experienced haze from distant burns. The growing overlap between heat waves and poor air quality emerged as one of the more troubling health storylines this year.

One of the new sciences that started to get recognized in 2025 was the rapid event-attribution groups. This is a science that analyze major heat and rainfall extremes to determine how much human-driven warming influenced them. Several high-profile studies concluded that some of the year’s worst episodes would have been far less likely in a cooler world. These findings added scientific weight to what many people already sensed: the background climate is shifting, and that shift is shaping the extremes we see.

Wild weather year

Taken together, the weather stories of 2025 paint a picture of a planet adjusting to a new rhythm, one marked by sharper extremes, quicker transitions and narrower margins. Heat waves that would have once been once-in-a-generation events are showing up every few years. Fire seasons behave less like defined “seasons” and more like extended periods of risk. Water arrives suddenly or not at all.

I once used an analogy of a blender. When you turn the blender on, the pattern remains fairly constant until you hit the next power level. Everything then jumps and becomes chaotic, eventually a new different pattern then emerges. I think we are starting to hit the next power level jump, we are seeing the chaotic weather patterns developing.

The question is, how long until a new stable pattern develops, and just what will be that pattern?

While the hope is always for a quieter year ahead, the lessons of 2025 will carry forward: awareness matters, preparation matters, and the stories we track now will help shape how we respond to whatever unfolds next.

The post YEAR IN REVIEW: 2025 a year of weather extremes appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Canadians, especially those involved in agriculture, never miss a chance to talk about the weather. The logical next step is to measure it and, when we can, share those observations with the wider community.

So let’s look at just what kind of home weather station you can get at an entry level, mid-range, and high level. We will then explore just a few of the many systems there are available at these three different entry points.

Just the basics

At the entry level, budget stations focus on key measurements: temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. These units typically rely on small sensor packages mounted near your house and transmit data wirelessly to an indoor display. They provide a straightforward snapshot of current conditions, which is often enough for casual users. If you go this route, prioritize models that include minimum/maximum readings, as these add context to the day’s weather. Also look for user-replaceable sensors, since cheaper units tend to wear out faster in extreme climates.

For those just starting out, a newer brand of weather station I came across is the VEVOR 5-in-1 Weather Station for around $99. It provides wireless measurements of indoor and outdoor temperature, wind, rainfall, and humidity. As I have not used this particular brand, or know of anyone who has, I cannot comment on quality or reliability.

Next up, the La Crosse Wireless Weather Forecaster station for about $75 and available at Canadian Tire. It offers a bright, easy-to-read display and outdoor sensors that measure temperature, humidity and wind speed, but no rainfall.

If you’re not too worried about measuring wind and rainfall but would rather have multiple temperature and humidity sensors, then the AcuRite 02082M Home Temperature And Humidity Station, about $105, delivers three different temperature and humidity sensors and is known for good sensor accuracy and handles cold winters well.

Moving up

Stepping into the mid-range opens the door to more specialized data. Stations in this category commonly add wind speed and direction, rainfall measurement, and better sensor shielding to improve accuracy. For rural or agricultural users, these extra measurements make a big difference. A well-designed rain gauge that resists clogging and a properly sited anemometer provide far more insight than basic weather stations can. Many mid-range systems also allow data logging, letting you keep track of trends over weeks or months — a valuable feature for anyone watching growing season moisture or early season frost risk.

These stations tend to cover the usual weather readings but also add in connectivity, which allows you to access your data remotely and usually anyone else.

The Explore Scientific 5-in-1 Wi-Fi Professional Weather Station coming in around $200 brings real-time data for wind, rain, humidity, and temperature straight to your phone or tablet.

The Ambient Weather WS-2000, about $490, steps further with a vivid console and Wi-Fi connectivity to services such as Weather Underground. As some of you may know, I own an Ambient system and discovered that their weather stations are rebranded Ecowitt stations with the Ecowitt station often priced much cheaper. Also, shipping and duty for an Ambient station can quickly add up. Overall, I will leave it up to you as to which brand you might be interested in.

For rugged dependability, the Davis Vantage Vue, roughly $550, is built to survive any type of prairie weather, earning a reputation for professional-grade accuracy in a compact form, and while it is getting a little pricy, it is still good value.

Top tier

The top tier of weather stations take things a step further by emphasizing sensor quality, durability, and connectivity. These systems often use higher-grade materials, radiation shields, and precision components that hold calibration better over time. They typically offer advanced data integration, allowing you to upload your measurements to online networks, view them on phone apps, or use a computer to analyze them. Some even support add-on sensors such as soil moisture probes, UV sensors, and solar radiation monitors. For hobbyists and professionals alike, this level of detail can support everything from home research projects to long-term environmental monitoring.

For those who want this sort of system, Davis tends to lead the field. The Vantage Pro2, about $1,400, features precision instruments for wind, rainfall, pressure and temperature, producing data consistent enough for research or local reporting. Its big sibling, the Vantage Pro2 Plus (around $2,000), adds UV and solar sensors, making it very suitable for agriculture. This is the station I owned for years before it finally stopped working and I just couldn’t find it in me to spend that much money to replace it.

Getting it right

Regardless of price point, there are a few universal considerations.

First, placement matters as much as the equipment itself. Temperature sensors should be shaded and ventilated; wind sensors need open exposure; rain gauges must sit level and free from obstructions. Second, consider how the unit communicates, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, or proprietary radio links all have advantages, depending on your setup and distance from the house. Finally, think about maintenance. Annual cleaning, occasional recalibration, and battery changes extend the life and accuracy of any station.

If a home weather station is in your future, figure out what you want in your station and do your research.

If you are unsure, start with a budget-friendly station and then see where you will go from there.

The post Is a weather station right for your farm? appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Then August came and went, and when all was said and done, that month came in with near- to slightly above-average temperatures.

So, what did September bring? Well, unless you never went outside, you probably know that is was a warmer than average month. The question is, ‘Just how warm was it?’

Temperature

As usual, we will look at the average temperature rankings for the main reporting centers in each province, followed by a look at how those actual temperatures compare to average. We will follow that up with a look at precipitation rankings and how they compare to average. Then we will jump into the long-range outlooks and see if there have been any changes to the thinking of the weather models.

Looking at the mean monthly temperatures for the month of September, the warmest actual location was once again Winnipeg, coming in at 15.8 Celsius. This was followed closely by Regina at 15.9 C and then Calgary at 15.6 C.

Comparing the mean monthly temperature to average, the warmest locations were Calgary, coming in 4.6 C above average, with Regina coming in second with 4.1 C warmer than average, and Edmonton a close third at 4.0 C warmer than average.

The cold spot was Peace River, with a reading of 13.4 C, which is not unexpected at this time of the year due to this region more northerly location. The coldest region compared to average was Brandon, coming in at a measly 3.2 C above average – which in all seriousness is still pretty darn warm.

This September was very reminiscent of last September when temperatures averaged from 2.6 to 5.6 C warmer than average.

Looking back at the last 15 years of data, I found that 10 of those years saw warmer-than-average Septembers and three were near-average, which means only two reported below-average temperatures. It is looking more and more likely that this may be our new normal, heading into fall.

Precipitation

Looking at precipitation, it was extremely dry across the western half of the Prairies, with most of Alberta seeing little-to-no precipitation during September. Precipitation was near-to-above average across southern Manitoba and parts of southern and eastern Saskatchewan, while central regions of Saskatchewan saw below-average amounts.

Turning to temperature, overall it was a much warmer-than-average September, with western regions seeing well below-average precipitation, and eastern regions seeing near- to above-average amounts.

Looking back at the forecasts, the winner would have to be the CFS model with its forecast of well-above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.

Forecasts

Now on to our look at the latest medium-to-long range forecasts. As usual we will start off with the almanacs. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for near- to slightly above-average temperatures and precipitation during the last couple of months of fall and into the first month of winter.

The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac appears to be calling for below-average temperatures in October and November along with above-average precipitation. It then looks like to transition to near-average temperatures and precipitation in December.

Moving on now to the different weather models. Last month’s winner, the CFS model, is calling for above-average temperatures in October and November with near-average temperatures across the eastern Prairies in December and western regions seeing below-average temperatures. Precipitation will be below-average in October with near-average in November and December.

The CanSIPS model calls for well-above-average temperatures in October which then transitions to near-average in October and below-average in December. Their precipitation forecast is calling for near- to below-average across all three months

Looking at NOAA’s prediction — and, as usual, extrapolating northward, as its model just disappears at the Canadian border — it appears to call for the next three months to see near-average temperatures and precipitation, except for southern Alberta seeing above-average precipitation.

Last is the ECMWF or European model. It calls for above-average temperatures in October and November, transitioning to near-average in December. Their precipitation forecast is calling for below-average amounts in October, transitioning to above-average by December.

Now on to my two cents. There are no strong forcing mechanisms in place that look to push us into a colder-than-average pattern. So, I am going with a warmer-than-average October and first half of November with temperatures then cooling to near- or even slightly below-average by early December. Precipitation, always difficult to predict, will be near-average in October, transitioning to near- to above-average by mid-November and into December with the western Pairies seeing a good chance of below-average precipitation throughout this period.

The post Will the warm fall linger on the Prairies? appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.