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Comparing The Forecasts For The Next Few Weeks

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Last issue we took a look at just how hot some places around the world have been this year. In this issue we ll take a quick look back at how Alberta s August weather turned out, and then look ahead to see if Alberta might finally see some warm weather in September, and hopefully for the rest of the fall.

August across much of agricultural Alberta was nothing to write home about this year. Over the north, temperatures were on the cool side, while farther south it was a little warmer. One thing that can definitely be said, it definitely was not hot during August. In fact, Edmonton did not record a single day above 30 C and over in Calgary they only had one day above 30 C and that occurred on Aug. 29 (two days later on Aug. 31 Calgary struggled to reach a high of 10 C).

When all the numbers were added up, Edmonton s mean monthly temperature for August was 14.6 C about 1/2 below the long-term average. Down south in Calgary the mean monthly temperature was 16.2 C which was about 1/2 above average.

Rainfall during the month continued to be above average over southern regions, while northern areas dried out. Calgary recorded 83 mm of rain which was about 25 mm above average. Up in Edmonton it was much drier. This region only recorded about 10 mm of rain a full 60 mm below average!

Overall, August turned out to be a bit of a mixed weather bag across agricultural Alberta. Northern regions saw cooler-than-average conditions but were dry while southern regions were a little warmer than average but also a little wetter than average.

If we look ahead to September, the question is whether the overall pattern of cool, wet conditions continues or will the nice start to the month be an indication of what will be in store for the rest of the month and maybe the entire fall? According to Environment Canada, September is going to continue on as it started warm and dry. The folks over at theOld Farmers Almanacare singing from the same book as EC, and are also calling for a warmer-and drier-than-average August. TheCanadian Farmers Almanacappears to be calling for near-average temperatures as it mentions fair and pleasant fairly often. It also looks like September, according to the CFA, will be wetter than average, with several mentions of thunderstorms and rain. Here at theAlberta Farmer,I am thinking that warmer and drier-thanaverage conditions will prevail for much of September.

Further into the fall

If we look further ahead, EC is calling for near-average temperatures and dry weather to prevail in October and November and possibly right through into early winter. Things are not as rosy over at theOld Farmers Almanac.It is calling for the dry weather to continue, but for temperatures to cool off starting in October and then getting downright cold for November. TheCanadian Farmers Almanacis painting an even more depressing picture. Its forecast appears to be calling for colder-than-average temperatures for both October and November, along with above-average precipitation, and snow moving in for Remembrance Day. Finally, here at theAlberta Farmer,I am a little torn between the two different forecasts. A number of indicators are pointing towards warmer-and drier-than-average weather conditions developing and sticking around right through into the winter. But part of me is saying that this pattern has had trouble taking hold this year, and we may see a quick switch back to cool and wet conditions. I think I ll have to go with the scientific part of me this time and stick with a call for warmer-thanaverage temperatures and dry conditions to continue through September and then hopefully stay around for October and November.

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AccordingtoEnvironmentCanada,Septemberisgoingtocontinueonasitstarted warmanddry.

About the author

AF Contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Manitoba.

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