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Warm Weather To Continue In October?

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Another September has come and gone, and I m not sure about you, but it sure seemed to fly by. I m not sure why the month went by so fast, maybe it was because school started, but personally, I think it has to do with the beautiful weather. For those of us who love summer we had plenty of summer-like days, but for those of us who look forward to those cool fall days, the overnight lows were nice and cool. After most areas went through a rather damp summer, it was nice that pretty much all regions of the Prairies saw nice dry weather during September.

After having an average to slightly below-average summer, temperatures really soared in September. The Edmonton region, which had seen three months in a row with slightly below-average temperatures, had a mean monthly September temperature of 12.2 C, which was a full 2 C above the long-term average. Farther south around Calgary the weather during September was even warmer. Calgary had a very warm mean monthly temperature of 14.6 C, which was nearly 4 C above average. This mean monthly temperature was the second warmest measured across the Prairies, and was only 0.1 C behind Regina. Since the average temperatures around Calgary are cooler than those around Regina, Calgary recorded the greatest difference from average (3.8 C) of all major centres across the Prairies.

Precipitation was very light during this period, with most regions seeing less than 10 mm of rain. Edmonton only recorded 5.2 mm during September, while Calgary was only a little wetter with a total of 10.6 mm. For the Calgary region this was the first well-below-average month for precipitation this year.

If we take a quick look further east, we would find that conditions were just as warm over Saskatchewan. Both Saskatoon and Regina had mean monthly temperatures in September that came in nearly 3.5 C above average. Precipitation was also very light in these regions, with both locations recording less than 20 mm of rain during the month.

Looking at the September weather numbers for Manitoba it appears that all regions saw above-average temperatures during the month. The Winnipeg region saw a mean monthly temperature in September of 14.2 C, which was nearly 2 C above average. Western Manitoba was also warmer than average during September, with Brandon recording a mean monthly temperature of 13.1 C, which was 1.2 C above the long-term average. This is the third straight month that southern and central Manitoba have seen temperatures more than 1.0 C above average. Precipitation was also light over western Manitoba during September, while eastern regions saw near to slightly above-average amounts of rain.

Who was right?

Now on to the fun part who was able to predict the warm and dry September weather? Well, I think this might be a first, it seems that every forecast except theCanadian Farmers Almanaccalled for a warmer-and drier-than-average September!

OK, now on to the most important part, what is the long-range forecast for October? Will we see a continuation of our warm, dry weather and have a repeat of last October when average temperatures were more than 2 above average, or will the bubble finally burst and the cold weather move in?

According to Environment Canada the warm weather will continue in October, but it is starting to lean towards average precipitation. Over at theOld Farmer s Almanacthey are singing a much different tune. They are calling for slightly below-average temperatures during October along with below-average precipitation. TheCanadian Farmers Almanacappears to be calling for below-average temperatures for the month as they mention colder and unsettled several times over the month. They also seem to be leaning towards above-average amounts of precipitation, with the talk of unsettled and stormy weather.

Finally, here atAlberta Farmer,I feel that warmer-than-average conditions will prevail for much of the month, but we do have to realize that the sun is rapidly decreasing in intensity at this time of the year which means it will be cooling down as the month progresses. I also believe that the dry weather will continue in October. Now, as usual, we just have to sit back and wait to see what happens.

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Calgaryrecordedthe greatestdifference fromaverage(3.8C) ofallmajorcentres acrossthePrairies.

About the author

AF Contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Manitoba.

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