StatCan is set to publish its lone farmer survey-based report on production of principal field crops on Monday (Dec. 4). The federal agency’s previous reports, in August and September, are model-based and largely rely on satellite imagery of crops.

StatCan’s September report placed canola production at 17.37 million tonnes, with all wheat at 29.83 million. The latter was broken down to 22.64 million tonnes of spring wheat, durum at 4.06 million and winter wheat at 3.14 million. Other major crops included corn at 14.93 million tonnes, barley at 7.84 million and soybeans at 6.72 million.

“I think the canola is going to be a real surprise to the trade. There’s a big canola crop out there,” Jerry Klassen of Resilient Commodity Analysis said, adding that the oilseed’s yields were likely five to 10 bushels per acre more than what was anticipated during the summer.

“The spring wheat is probably going to be a little larger too,” he continued, noting the U.S. Department of Agriculture upped its estimates for wheat output in North Dakota as growing conditions there improved.

“I think that trend will carry on into Western Canada, particularly in central Alberta and the eastern half of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba,” Klassen said.

However, there was another consensus among most of the analysts and traders — that StatCan’s reports are inaccurate, especially those from August and September.

“Last year, StatCan had their modeling number, and their survey number came out pretty much the same. Then at the end of the [marketing] year they had to make a pretty large adjustment upwards. It’s a shame because we really need a much better crop estimation system, in the country very desperately,” Ken Ball of PI Financial said.

“The industry has to stand up and do something to get StatCan out of the picture as quickly as possible,” he continued, but acknowledged, “I don’t know what we would replace them with.”

Klassen suggested StatCan “doesn’t have enough experience in extremely dry years” when they apply “their satellite imagery and agroclimatic data to their model.”

David Derwin, also of PI Financial, said production reports are difficult to put together by any organization and suggested StatCan has been too conservative in its calls, especially on canola.

“Over the years they have been a little bit biased towards being a little bit less canola than perhaps some of those reports would indicate,” he commented, adding “We got a pretty good sense of what canola has been produced and what’s in the bins too.”

As for StatCan, a spokesperson said the model-based reports are just as accurate as the previous survey-based reports during the summer.

“While final estimates of yield and production released in December may differ from earlier estimates, this does not indicate that a model-based approach is less accurate than a survey-based approach,” the agency told MarketsFarm via email.

“Each occasion within the crop reporting cycle represents a snapshot in time. Revisions from one occasion to another reflect changing conditions as the growing season progresses and more information becomes available.”

Table: Ranges of trade estimates ahead of Statistics Canada’s December report on production of principal field crops, in millions of tonnes.

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The January canola contract closed at $702.30 per tonne on Wednesday a weekly loss of $7.40. The contract fell below the $700 level on U.S. Thanksgiving on Nov. 23, a day with little volume.

However, Ball said, canola is trying to recover.

“There’s nothing all that exciting to look at,” he said. “It’s going to hinge exclusively on how well the (soyoil) will do.”

While Ball said a slower export pace than last year will put some pressure on canola prices, he cautiously thinks there could be some strength in both canola and soyoil in the short-term.

“Weather is going to come into play a lot, because the soybean market has been well supported by soymeal prices. But if the South American rainfall comes through over the next four to six weeks, that’s going to break the meal market and the bean market could fall off a lot,” he added.

“I think canola could rebound $20, $30, $40/tonne if soyoil could maintain its strength.”

Ball also believes the upcoming crop production report from Statistics Canada on Dec. 4 may already be affecting prices on ICE Futures.

The average trade estimate for this year’s crop was 18.3 million tonnes, derived from a range between 17.2 million and 19.7 million. In 2022-23, Canada produced 18.7 million tonnes.

“The general feeling is that this year’s crop is not that far off from last year. There were some poor areas; some good areas. Some areas improved; some didn’t,” he said.

Canola, he added, “seems a bit reluctant at times to go up. It’s lagging behind the (Chicago soy complex) a bit, which is not uncommon… but traders may be a little bit leery in buying canola if there is indeed a large upswing in production expected.

“If we do get a number around 18.3 million… that may keep the market somewhat subdued.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Bayer on Oct. 30 announced integration of the two platforms, which it said will allow grain farmers in Canada and the U.S. to connect their marketing data in Combyne and the agronomic data FieldView gathers from their field equipment.

Seeded-acreage and yield data from FieldView can thus allow Combyne users to accurately track the total bushels available to market without needing to export, upload and enter data twice, Bayer said.

Once a farmer reviews the available FieldView data, using Combyne’s Import Review function, the harvested and projected-yield figures in Combyne will automatically update with the actual figures.

That in turn will make Combyne’s data on percentage sold and net marketed position more accurate, “using your real numbers off the combine instead of rough estimates,” according to Combyne’s website.

Incoming FieldView data will also allow a Combyne user to “know how much of your harvest is already committed and better manage your forward contracting.”

That means a “fuller and more accurate picture of current-year harvest totals and projections for future years to easily update crop contract and storage positions, and enable up-to-date crop marketing decisions,” Bayer said.

Combyne was released to the public in late 2021 by Ottawa Valley farmer Alain Goubau’s company Combyne Ag — previously known as the developer of the grain marketing tool FarmLead, which was sunset in 2020.

Combyne is meant to serve as a record-keeping and decision-making support tool, gathering information on grain storage balances, contracts, deliveries and settlements across multiple buyers — as well as net overall marketed positions per crop.

According to Bayer, which acquired Combyne Ag in January, the Combyne platform allows farmers to manage grain trade documents in one place for a clear view of contractual commitments, delivery status, storage positions and cash flow projections from grain sales, and thus better manage contract risk and delivery logistics.

“With accurate bushel quantities populating your marketed positions, you can better manage things like how forward contracted you are, how much of your harvest is already committed, and where things stand when it comes to your storage and deliveries,” Goubau, now CEO of Bayer’s Combyne Ag arm, said in Bayer’s Oct. 30 release.

“By working with FieldView, delivered grain outcomes in Combyne can eventually be connected back to the fields they originated from and the management choices made on those fields, for better mapping of quality specs such as grade and dockage from delivered loads,” he said.

That, in turn, allows for “field-level profitability insights — mapping actual revenue from sold crops against cost of production per field.”

Climate FieldView, which came to Bayer when it bought Monsanto in 2018, was launched in the U.S. in 2015 and in Canada late the following year.

It was developed by Climate Corp., a Monsanto arm since 2013, as a single platform to unite data from each piece of precision ag equipment, for access via smartphone, tablet or desktop. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Farms in North and South America, Europe and Australia are facing crop losses as extreme weather spreads over an unusually wide geographic area. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the biggest shipper of canola.

Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat production at 29.8 million metric tonnes, the second-lowest in eight years, and down 13 per cent from last year. The estimate was slightly higher than StatCan’s estimate of 29.5 million tonnes in its previous report on Aug. 29.

The new wheat estimate fell short of the average industry expectation of 30.4 million tonnes.

“It does seem that global high-protein wheat is snug for another year,” said Ed Broschinski, lead analyst at MarketSense, Cargill Canada’s grain advisory service.

Broschinski added that U.S. supplies may partly offset Canada’s small wheat crop, with anecdotal reports of better than expected North Dakota spring wheat yields.

StatCan estimated durum production at 4.1 million tonnes, down 30 per cent year over year, and the second-smallest crop of the wheat used to make pasta in 13 years, after the worse 2021 drought. The agency had previously estimated production of 4.3 million tonnes.

StatCan based its estimates on satellite and agroclimatic data as of Aug. 31, one month later than it used for the previous report.

Farmers look to produce 17.4 million tonnes of canola, down seven per cent from last year and their second-smallest crop in nine years. StatCan had previously estimated 17.6 million tonnes.

Canola supplies also look tight if demand is average, Broschinski said.

ICE Canada November canola futures dipped 0.4 per cent, little changed from before the report’s release.

StatsCan left its oat harvest estimate at 2.4 million tonnes, down 53 per cent from last year.

— Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent in Winnipeg.

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StatCan on Tuesday released those projections, which largely presented a reduction in yields due to ongoing dry conditions on the Prairies. As of July 31, Canadian dry field pea output was estimated at 2.191 million tonnes, a 36 per cent decline from the 2022-23 total and its lowest yearly figure in 20 years.

Lentils showed a similar decline, producing 33.2 per cent less at 1.537 million tonnes, its lowest total since 2009.

Dry bean production was pegged at 269,934 tonnes, compared to 312,994 last year while hitting a seven-year low.

Meanwhile, soybean production was expected to see a 2.9 per cent increase from last year at 6.735 million tonnes. Chickpea production was slated for 3.6 per cent growth to 132,575 tonnes.

Pulse Canada director of market access and trade policy Mac Ross said while there were drier-than-normal conditions in many parts of the Prairies, he does not expect a repeat of the yield cuts caused by the 2021 drought.

“We’re likely going to be better off this year with pockets that fared a little better than others, but we also had less acres on major pulses lentils and peas this year,” Ross said.

Both projections for lentils and peas were well below pre-report trade expectations and the potential lack of supply was reflected in recent price movement. High-delivered bids for lentils ranged from 30.3 to 60.5 cents/lb. as of Monday, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Prices have risen between three to eight cents compared to last month and between 4.3 to 18 cents since last year.

High-delivered bids for chickpeas ranged from 35.5 to 51.5 cents/lb., with most varieties gaining seven cents in price over the past month and between 2.5 to 10.5 cents compared to one year ago.

“We’re seeing on the lentil and chickpea side prices going up. We know in India there’s some real concern regarding their kharif planting and the effect El Niño is having on supplies. There’s also some questions about the size of the North American crop,” Ross added.

“The drier conditions we’re seeing in Canada is not just a Canada story. The El Niño effect is kind of impacting production globally and it’s something we’ll have to watch.”

He added that lentil demand from India and pea demand from China are both still very strong, despite a slight decline in the latter. Meanwhile, domestic demand continues to move forward.

“We’re seeing a trend of increased domestic processing here in Canada. We have now about 600,000 tonnes of pulse processing alone here in Canada. If you look at that in terms of volume stacked up with our export markets, the Canadian domestic market is now second behind China as far as our largest markets,” Ross said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Drought is expected to send global wheat stockpiles for major exporters to the lowest levels in more than a decade, a Reuters analysis has shown.

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the biggest shipper of canola, which is used largely to produce vegetable oil.

Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat production at 29.5 million metric tonnes, the second-lowest in eight years, and down 14 per cent from last year (see table below). The estimate fell below the average industry expectation of 30.4 million in a Reuters survey.

“We’re down significantly. We’re seeing a tightening (of supplies) in the major exporters,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather at MarketsFarm.

Farms in areas of North and South America, Europe and Australia face crop losses as extreme weather spreads over an unusually wide geographic area, making food production increasingly vulnerable.

Production of spring wheat, used in baking, looked to fall 14.5 per cent to 22.1 million tonnes. The harvest of durum wheat, used in pasta production, is expected to plummet 26 per cent, to 4.3 million tonnes.

Farmers look to produce 17.6 million tons of canola, down six per cent from last year. It would be Canada’s second-smallest canola crop in nine years.

The average trade estimate was 17.4 million tonnes.

ICE Canada November canola futures extended gains after the report, rising 0.6 per cent.

Oat production looks to fall by more than 50 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes, Canada’s smallest output since 1991.

StatsCan based its estimates on satellite and agroclimatic data as of July 31, before much harvesting had taken place. It will release new estimates on Sept. 14 using data as of Aug. 31.

— Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent in Winnipeg.

Table: Statistics Canada’s estimates of production of Canada’s principal field crops as of July 2023, released Aug. 29, 2023.

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While AAFC’s call on 2023-24 canola production was held at 18.8 million tonnes, the department noted an error.

“The imbalance between canola supplies and disappearance is reflected in the negative feed, waste and dockage (FWD) and error estimate of 663,000 tonnes. The negative FWD reflects an underestimation of the carry-in and/or production for the crop year, these estimates are expected to be revised in an upcoming release of Statistics Canada’s supply and disposition report,” the report said.

MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville further explained the error.

“The negative FWD number obviously cannot stand, but it’s very likely an acknowledgement from the government that their 2022 canola production estimate of 18.1 (million metric tonnes) is not right, understated by at minimum of 500,000 to more likely around 700,000 tonnes,” he said. “Now it is up to StatCan to make the correction, maybe in their September grain stocks report or maybe they delay it until their December production report.”

With StatCan scheduled to issue its model-based production estimates on Aug. 29, followed by its stocks report on Sept. 8, the September report from AAFC will more accurately reflect crop output for 2023-24.

Jubinville commented that AAFC was wrong in its estimation of 18.8 million tonnes of canola, but the department has to wait for that Aug. 29 report before changing its call.

All wheat saw its 2023-24 production reduced from 35.33 million tonnes in July to now 33.21 million, and durum was cut from 5.7 million tonnes to 4.91 million.

“Drought conditions for the southern half of Alberta and southwest and west-central Saskatchewan lower the durum and the spring (wheat). They are still too high but working in the direction of lower in future reports, I suspect,” Jubinville said.

Oats were trimmed from 2.82 million tonnes to 2.71 million. Meanwhile the department’s flax estimate was held at 325,000 tonnes along with soybeans staying at 6.85 million. Corn saw an increase from 14.53 million tonnes in July to 15.30 million, based on good growing conditions in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba, according to AAFC.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg; includes files from Phil Franz-Warkentin of MarketsFarm.

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Ukraine is a major global grower and exporter of wheat, corn, sunflower and sunflower oil, but its production has fallen sharply since the war start in February 2022.

“According to the modelling results, some of the sectors will not reach the pre-war levels even after seven years of peace,” Kyiv School of Economics said in a report.

It said the sunflower, barley and wheat sectors were expected to recover by 2040, while the maize, rye, oats and rapeseed sectors were expected to recover by 2050.

“This means that it may take as long as 20 years for Ukraine to regain its strength in agriculture after the devastation brought by the Russian military assault,” it said.

Ukraine harvested 106 million tonnes of grain and oilseed in 2021 before the invasion, but output could decrease to around 65 million tonnes in 2023, the agriculture ministry has said.

— Reporting for Reuters by Pavel Polityuk.

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AAFC held its projections for 2022-23 grains and oilseeds production at 89.489 million tonnes. As for exports, the department reduced them from 45.715 million tonnes last month to now 45.49 million. Furthermore, domestic usage was trimmed from 44.528 million tonnes to 44.506 million. However, ending stocks were bumped up from 10.565 million tonnes, to 10.815 million.

Among the most notable changes came in 2022-23 flax exports, which were chopped from January’s call of 375,000 tonnes to 150,000 this month. There were small tweaks as well, with domestic usage for canola lowered from 9.748 million tonnes last month to now 9.738 million.

As for the coming 2023-24 crop year, AAFC lowered grain and oilseed production from 88.045 million tonnes in January to 87.965 million, with only flaxseed revised downward on the month.

Exports for 2023-24 were kept at 45.865 million tonnes, while domestic usage was cut from 44.696 million tonnes to 44.471 million. Projected ending stocks for 2023-24 were adjusted from 10.96 million tonnes last month to 11.355 million this month.

Table: February estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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In AAFC’s January supply and demand estimates, released Friday, it cut oat production to 3.611 million tonnes, down almost 31 per cent compared to 2022-23. The department chopped the carryout for oats by nearly 48 per cent at 600,000 tonnes.

For all wheat (spring and winter wheats plus durum), AAFC projected production to bump up 1.5 per cent at 34.327 million tonnes. It raised canola by 1.8 per cent at 18.5 million tonnes, and soybeans 3.5 per cent at 6.77 million tonnes. Corn was lowered 4.8 per cent at 13.845 million tonnes, while durum, barley and flax remained relatively steady.

As for ending stocks, those for all wheat, durum, barley, canola, flax and soybeans were raised.

Table: January estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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