Winnipeg | Reuters — Canadian farmers will harvest slightly more wheat and a bit less canola than expected earlier in summer, but dry conditions will keep both crops small, a government report showed on Thursday.
Farms in North and South America, Europe and Australia are facing crop losses as extreme weather spreads over an unusually wide geographic area. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the biggest shipper of canola.
Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat production at 29.8 million metric tonnes, the second-lowest in eight years, and down 13 per cent from last year. The estimate was slightly higher than StatCan’s estimate of 29.5 million tonnes in its previous report on Aug. 29.
Read Also
AAFC projects tighter canola stocks for 2026-27
Canadian canola carryout supplies at the end of the upcoming 2026-27 marketing year will be tighter than earlier projections, according to updated supply and demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released April 17.
The new wheat estimate fell short of the average industry expectation of 30.4 million tonnes.
“It does seem that global high-protein wheat is snug for another year,” said Ed Broschinski, lead analyst at MarketSense, Cargill Canada’s grain advisory service.
Broschinski added that U.S. supplies may partly offset Canada’s small wheat crop, with anecdotal reports of better than expected North Dakota spring wheat yields.
StatCan estimated durum production at 4.1 million tonnes, down 30 per cent year over year, and the second-smallest crop of the wheat used to make pasta in 13 years, after the worse 2021 drought. The agency had previously estimated production of 4.3 million tonnes.
StatCan based its estimates on satellite and agroclimatic data as of Aug. 31, one month later than it used for the previous report.
Farmers look to produce 17.4 million tonnes of canola, down seven per cent from last year and their second-smallest crop in nine years. StatCan had previously estimated 17.6 million tonnes.
Canola supplies also look tight if demand is average, Broschinski said.
ICE Canada November canola futures dipped 0.4 per cent, little changed from before the report’s release.
StatsCan left its oat harvest estimate at 2.4 million tonnes, down 53 per cent from last year.
— Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent in Winnipeg.
