MarketsFarm — Canadian canola carryout stocks are forecast to rise to a record 5.3 million tonnes by the end of the 2019-20 marketing year, more than doubling the previous five-year average, according to updated estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division.
While the department, in its estimates, expects total canola production to decline to 18.9 million tonnes in 2019-20, from 20.343 million in the current marketing year, it also forecasts a sharp reduction in exports.
Read Also
U.S. finalizes biofuel blending quotas for 2026-27, cuts RINS for foreign feedstocks
The Trump administration on Friday finalized new biofuel blending volumes mandates for the U.S. oil refiners, requiring more of the fuels made from corn and other agricultural products than initially proposed,in an apparent win for U.S. farmers.
Citing the trade dispute with China, AAFC said there was a “high degree of uncertainty” to the export forecast. Total canola exports for 2019-20 are forecast at only 8.000 million tonnes, which compares with an estimated 9.300 million in the current marketing year and 10.726 million in 2017-18.
Canola ending stocks for 2018-19 are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, which compares with an earlier estimate of 3.5 million. That would mark the new record on its own, and compares with the previous five-year average of 2.303 million tonnes.
Total wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 are also expected to be large, at an estimated 7.1 million tonnes. That compares with an estimated 5.8 million tonnes for 2018-19.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.
