CBOT weekly outlook: U.S. spring wheat seeding near standstill

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Published: May 5, 2022

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A washout on Manitoba PR 240, about 60 km north of the U.S. border, on May 2, 2022. (Manitoba Co-operator photo by Alexis Stockford)

MarketsFarm — A succession of weather events has pretty much brought spring planting in North Dakota and Minnesota to a standstill, according to analyst Tom Lilja of Progressive Ag at Fargo, N.D.

The weekly crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated nationwide planting of spring wheat at 19 per cent complete as of May 1. That placed it nine points behind the five-year average.

“North Dakota showed only a one-point progress last week. Currently we are five per cent planted, versus 18 per cent normal. Minnesota is at one per cent planted versus 24 per cent normal,” Lilja said.

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A year ago, spring wheat planting in North Dakota was at 39 per cent finished and 64 per cent for Minnesota, according to USDA.

Lilja said the department compiles its data on a Friday. Over the weekend of April 30-May 1, the two states were hit with a number of systems that brought precipitation. The added moisture will further drag out spring planting.

“It’s going to be a challenge over the next couple of weeks,” Lilja said, noting another system is forecast to hit the region by Tuesday.

“That should be the last system. We should get a two-week window for the middle of May,” he said.

Lilja pointed to the portion of North Dakota that’s west of Highway 83 as having a better chance to carry on with spring seeding, compared to the eastern half of the state.

He said it’s unlikely the next USDA supply and demand report will show any major changes to planted acres for wheat, as well as soybeans and corn. Such would appear in successive reports. The report is set to be released on May 12.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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