Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was still trending higher in the first trading days of October but showing signs of running into resistance.
The nearby November contract neared the C$620 per tonne level on three separate occasions over the past week, but farmer selling pressure came forward every time as values neared that level. A break higher could bring in additional buying interest. However, prices might be at the upper end of their range as “none of the fundamentals are that supportive,” according to Ken Ball of Ventum Financial in Winnipeg.
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Declines in projected planting intentions for 2026/27 were not as big as the market expected, after the United States Department of Agriculture released its estimates on March 31. The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.
Independent strength in vegetable oil markets, driven in part by concerns over the escalating conflict in the Middle East, could provide some spillover support to canola, said Ball. However, he added that solid soybean yields in the United States and timely Brazilian rains were limiting the upside potential in the oilseed markets.
Canada’s canola harvest is still underway, with no real clear handle on the size of the crop. Ball expected actual production was likely below Statistics Canada’s 18.98 million-tonne estimate but added that supplies would likely still be comfortable even if the crop ended up closer to 18 million tonnes.
