Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was still trending higher in the first trading days of October but showing signs of running into resistance.
The nearby November contract neared the C$620 per tonne level on three separate occasions over the past week, but farmer selling pressure came forward every time as values neared that level. A break higher could bring in additional buying interest. However, prices might be at the upper end of their range as “none of the fundamentals are that supportive,” according to Ken Ball of Ventum Financial in Winnipeg.
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As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
Independent strength in vegetable oil markets, driven in part by concerns over the escalating conflict in the Middle East, could provide some spillover support to canola, said Ball. However, he added that solid soybean yields in the United States and timely Brazilian rains were limiting the upside potential in the oilseed markets.
Canada’s canola harvest is still underway, with no real clear handle on the size of the crop. Ball expected actual production was likely below Statistics Canada’s 18.98 million-tonne estimate but added that supplies would likely still be comfortable even if the crop ended up closer to 18 million tonnes.
