Marlene Boersch isn’t buying what Agriculture Canada is selling.
In its Outlook for Principal Field Crops, published in January, the department forecasts a five percent drop in durum wheat acres – going from 6.35 million seeded acres in 2024 to 6.05 million this year.
Those estimates are too pessimistic, said Boersch, who operates Mercantile Consulting Venture, a market intelligence firm with offices in Winnipeg and Langley, B.C.
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She thinks durum acres will rise two per cent in 2025 because the price and profit potential of growing durum is relatively strong, compared to other crops in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta.
“When you look at return per acre numbers… we could see a slight increase in durum acres,” said Boersch, who provided a market outlook at the 2025 Durum Summit, held Jan. 30 in Swift Current, Sask.
“AAFC said a five percent decrease. I have trouble with that.”
In its outlook, Agriculture Canada said the global production of durum “rebounded” in 2024-25, thus building stockpiles around the globe.
“Stocks are expected to close the year at 6.2 million tonnes, 12 percent higher than opening levels,” the department wrote.
“Closing stocks of major exporters (Canada, European Union, Mexico and the United States) are projected at 2.4 million tonnes, 16 per cent more than opening levels.”
Boersch sees the market differently.
Canada is the world’s largest exporter of durum wheat, and stocks in Canada are not excessive.
Supplies in Canada will be around 465,000 tonnes, at the end of the 2024-25 crop year, using estimates from Mercantile.
That’s significantly lower than Canadian durum stocks from 2010-18, when ending stockpiles averaged 1.5 million tonnes.
“Durum stocks have reduced very substantially, from what we were used to,” Boersch said.
As well, European durum production was basically flat this year compared to the last couple of years. Ending stocks in Europe will increase relative to the 2023-24 crop year, but stockpiles are not abundant.
“The durum situation remains balanced (this year). It’s not over-supplied.”
Her analysis suggests that prices for old crop durum in Western Canada should be close to $10 per bu.
“We have seen that (price) recently in southern Saskatchewan,” Boersch said.
For new crop, she has pegged price at $9 per bu.
At the Durum Summit, Boersch included a slide on exports and the percentage of Canadian durum that’s shipped to America.
Over the last 10 years, 13 per cent of durum exports, on average, were sold to American buyers.
Some years it’s closer to five per cent and sometimes it’s above 15 per cent.
The majority of Canadian durum is exported to Europe and Morocco. Durum sales to Europe, particularly Italy, have jumped during the 2024-25 crop year.
From August 1 to the end of November:
Canada shipped 400,000 tonnes of durum to Italy.
In the same period in 2023, durum exports to Italy were 150,000 tonnes.
“The Canadian share last year was about 17.5 percent. This year we are back to 54 per cent of exports into Italy,” Boersch said.
“This is very good news for the Canadian durum producers.”
Exports to Morocco have also increased, going from 200,000 tonnes in August-November 2023 to 300,000 tonnes in 2024.
The change in export numbers can be explained by two countries — Turkey and Russia.
In 2023-24, Turkey shocked the durum world when exports exploded, reaching 1.7 million tonnes. The Turkish government changed its export policies last year, allowing more exports of durum wheat.
Some of those exports were likely Russian durum.
The EU has banned imports of dozens of Russian products, including wheat, because of the Ukrainian war.
Russia possibly skirted those rules by shipping its durum wheat through Turkey in 2023-24.
“A lot of grain flows through Turkey. I don’t think there’s any doubt that some of that (was Russian),” Boersch said.
Italy and other EU nations became more “stern” about Russian imports in the 2024-25 crop year and shifted their purchases back to Canada.
Turkish durum exports will drop significantly this crop year. They could be closer to 500,000-700,000 tonnes, using Mercantile estimates.
U.S. tariffs will certainly disrupt trade flows, but Canadian durum exports should be much higher this year.
“Disregarding the tariffs for a moment, we think we’re getting close to five million tonne exports this year, which would be very, very nice,” Boersch.
That will minimize stocks in Canada, reducing the carryover into the next crop year.
“That’s good news because you’re not coming into the new year with a big overhang.”
