Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Farmers have likely lost an opportunity to get better prices for their crops, such as canola, just as the harvest across the Canadian Prairies begins to pick up speed, an analyst warned.
“They had the opportunity to hedge their grain at much better levels,” said Wayne Palmer, analyst with Exceed Grain in Winnipeg. “I think they haven’t pulled the selling trigger.”
“The (speculative) funds are so powerful right now. They’re short on all the grain except for soyoil and canola,” he added.
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A major issue in all this has been the Prairie weather, as rain over the last three weeks or so has led to a sharp turnaround, especially for canola, Palmer said.
“Our crop was in a lot of trouble up until the middle of July,” he stated, noting it had been on course for a below average harvest. Since then, Palmer believes the canola harvest will be at least average.
Adding to the situation is the likelihood of large soybean and corn harvests in the United States. The analyst said the Pro Farmer crop tour could see all-time record yields.
“The U.S. market is bearish,” Palmer warned.
He also pointed to China’s 76 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola seed, along with 100 per cent levies on the oil and meal that are weighing on values.
“Farmers are long. Farmers have to sell. Farmers have to make room with more supply than expected,” said Palmer. “This could be a very successful 2025 for the farmers, but unfortunately they haven’t done their homework.”
The only saving grace pricewise would be some kind of disaster, but Palmer said the weather models are not indicating any kind of major problems.
