Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Only minor changes to the grain and oilseed balance sheets are expected in the Sept. 12 supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture, said an analyst.
“Wheat will probably be the least looked at commodity as everyone is going to be focused on the yields for corn and beans,” said Terry Reilly, senior agriculture specialist with Marex.
Reilly said the trade believes the USDA will reduce 2025/26 corn ending stocks by 100 million bushels bringing the carryover to about two billion bushels.
“Anything lower than that might be supportive,” he said.
In the USDA’s August report, corn ending stocks were increased to 2.18 billion bushels from the July estimate of 1.66 billion. And corn yields rose to 188.8 bushels per acre from 181.
His own estimate has the USDA trimming corn stocks by only 40 million bushels, noting that others have called for a 220-million cut.
For soybeans, Reilly said if the changes to soybean ending stocks are below 270 million bushels, “that would be a little bit supportive.” But the analyst said there’s likely not going to be that much of a revision.
Last month, the USDA bumped up the soybean carryover to 1.72 billion bushels from 1.67 billion. Yields rose to 53.6 bu./ac. from 52.5.
The analyst said soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade have been getting positive spillover from gains in soymeal. Ending stocks for the latter are tight, which is generating the increases in meal.
In August, the USDA held soymeal ending stocks at 475,000 short tons.
Reilly said the Trump administration needs to make its biofuel policy much more clearer, which the current uncertainty has led to declines in the soyoil.
Wheat should be an entirely different creature, with the USDA very unlikely to revise its supply data for it. However, Reilly said that doesn’t necessarily apply to the export market.
“They have a good justification to maybe raise U.S. exports,” he said.
In August, the USDA nudged up 2025/26 wheat exports to 875 million bushels from 850 million as shipments are well ahead of those last year.
On the flip side, the trade needs to keep on an eye on wheat production in Russia and Australia. Last month, the USDA held its call on Russian wheat output for 2025/26 at 83.50 million tonnes and Australia remained at 31 million. However, speculation has pointed to both countries harvesting more.
