Glacier FarmMedia — As activity at the Chicago Board of Trade shifts into holiday mode through the New Year, independent analyst Terry Reilly pointed to three things to watch over the next few weeks.
Why it matters: CBOT prices influence canola prices as well as the Canadian cash markets.
China buying U.S. soybeans
Foremost is the amount of 2025/26 United States soybeans sold to China before Jan. 1. For more than a month the Trump administration has touted China purchasing 12 million tonnes before the end of the calendar year. However, there has yet to be a signed deal and confirmed purchases that lag that target.
“With roughly 20 days left and no announcements over the last three days, I don’t think it’s looking very good that we’ll be able to sell the entire 12 million tonnes of beans to China,” Reilly said.
Given the amount China has already acquired, the country would need to average about two million tonnes per week in purchases over the remainder of December.
“Day by day I see traders losing faith in that 12-million tonne mark,” Reilly added, noting that China very likely lacks sufficient storage capacity for such a quick influx of soybeans.
Meanwhile, on Dec. 3, U.S Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it’s now expected China will buy that amount by the end of February.
Also, reports said the Trump administration will likely soon announce its multi-billion dollar aid package for U.S. farmers.
S/D report
Another element Reilly said to keep an eye on is the U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report on Dec. 9, despite the December estimates often being seen as “benign.”
Among to the numbers to watch Reilly said are any major changes in the soybean and corn production numbers for Argentina and Brazil. Over the last week or so, some consultancies and analysts have reduced their 2026/27 South American projections due to unfavourable weather conditions.
Cold front
The third element to watch is the coming cold front soon to move across the upper half of the U.S. Midwest. Reilly said windchills are forecast to fall to -23 degrees Celsius with very little snow coverage to protect the winter wheat. But the analyst said he’s confident the wheat will survive.
Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos
