Glacier FarmMedia — Updated supply demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture, released Feb. 10, included only minor adjustments and provided little direction for the corn and soybean markets headed through the slow February trading period.
“February isn’t really known for rallies in the grain markets,” said analyst Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago, adding that “there’s not much going on.” He expected the markets may hold rangebound in the short-term.
Corn
In its February report the USDA raised its call for U.S. corn exports in 2025/26 by 100 million bushels from January to 3.3 billion bushels, and lowered its carryout forecast by the same amount.
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While the record-large export demand was a supportive price influence, “there’s just too much corn out there right now,” said Lusk. He added that there are still questions over the size of the 2025 corn harvest after the USDA’s surprising upward revisions to harvested area and yields in January.
Soybeans
The USDA left its domestic numbers unchanged from January in the February report, despite recent talk from the White House that China would increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans this year to 20 million tonnes.
While increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans should be supportive, “there’s a bumper crop coming out of Brazil,” said Lusk. If China is buying more U.S. soybeans, the Brazilian beans will just move elsewhere in the world resulting in a “zero sum game,” he added.
The USDA will hold its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 19-20, with the event providing the agency’s first look at 2026 acreage ideas. Given the current price relationship between soybeans and corn, Lusk expected to see increased soybean planting intentions and a reduction in corn on the year.
