As is often the case at this time of the year, the weather models got the general picture right, but the finer details were much to be desired. Usually, the models struggle with the forecast beyond two to five days out, but for much of this forecast period they struggled with the finer details on […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Arctic high slowly moving out
Issued Oct. 25, covering Oct. 25 to Nov. 1
Prairie Forecast Update: Cold and some snow coming
Issued Oct. 22, covering Oct. 22 to 25
I have been waiting to see if the weather models were going to come into agreement on the upcoming shift on our weather pattern and for the most part, they have: it’s going to get cold! A large area of low pressure has formed over the eastern Arctic and the counterclockwise rotation around that low […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Warmer, colder… then snow?
Issued Oct. 18, covering Oct. 18-25
Not surprisingly for this time of the year, the last forecast didn’t play out exactly as expected, but overall, it was pretty darn close. The large area of high pressure that was forecasted to develop over the northern Prairies and slowly drop southward did just as forecast, but over the first few days the high […] Read more
Extreme rainfall and a warming planet
Changes to the jet stream could slow storm systems and result in more heavy rainfalls
Reading Time: 3 minutes Glacier FarmMedia – Factors resulting in extreme rainfall events range from lots of atmospheric moisture to different triggers such as orographic or frontal lift, instability, speed of storm systems, and the training of thunderstorms. We will look at the different weather patterns that tend to be associated with rainfall and tie in changing weather patterns […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Sprawling high to bring dry, seasonably warm weather
Issued Oct. 11, covering Oct. 11-17
For the first time in a while, the last forecast period did not play out exactly as the weather models predicted, thanks mostly to a strong area of low pressure that moved westwards from the Atlantic into central Ontario last weekend and into the first half of this week. While the low didn’t impact the […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Building western ridge to bring warming trend
Issued Oct. 4, covering Oct. 4-10
Last week’s weather forecast played out close to what the weather models were predicting. Western regions saw cooler-than-average temperatures move in, while eastern regions saw a brief return to summer-like temperatures. This pattern was a response to an area of low pressure that spun up over the central U.S. during the second half of the […] Read more
Prairie Forecast Update: Wet weather for southern Manitoba, southeastern Saskatchewan
Update issued Oct. 2, covering Oct. 2-4
The strong area of low pressure that the weather models have been forecasting to impact the eastern half of the Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday is starting to take shape. The latest model runs show the low pushing northward into western Manitoba early on Tuesday morning and then moving off toward northwestern Ontario by late […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Summer tries to hang on
Issued Sept. 27, covering Sept. 27 to Oct. 4
For being this far into fall, the weather models have been surprisingly accurate. Heck, I didn’t even need to send an update for the last issue! Not sure if I can be as optimistic for this forecast period, as we are moving deeper into fall and starting to see the first hints of winter trying […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Warm fall weather to continue
Issued Sept. 20, covering Sept. 20-27
Even with some uncertainty in the last forecast, the weather models did a surprisingly good job. At one point it looked like I was going to have to send out an update as the models started trending toward a cooler pattern, but they quickly reversed back to a warm pattern. This brought the expected heat […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: One last push of summer-like temperatures
Issued Sept. 13, covering Sept. 13-20
As we work our way slowly into fall, we are starting to see a more fall-like pattern beginning to develop — especially when it comes to overnight lows. While the upcoming forecast does not look like we see a big fall cooldown, there is more and more deviation developing between different runs of the forecast […] Read more