MarketsFarm — As the U.S. dollar strengthened to levels unseen in 20 years over the past week, the prices for many commodities took a tumble, including Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn, wheat and soybeans.
However, other factors are in play when it comes to prices, according to one trader.
“You’re coming into harvest here. So it’s putting a little pressure on corn and (soybeans) if you don’t get any demand news, because the further we go into harvest, the better we know what the crop is,” Sean Lusk, vice-president of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services in Chicago said.
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Declines in projected planting intentions for 2026/27 were not as big as the market expected, after the United States Department of Agriculture released its estimates on March 31. The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.
Lusk added that corn and soybeans are “a bit overbought” and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Quarterly Grains Report, to be released Friday, could have an effect on prices. However, he believes next month’s world agricultural supply demand estimates (WASDE) from USDA will be more significant.
“I think the bigger report would be the WASDE report in October because that’s an actual estimate of what this crop is as we get through harvest here,” Lusk said. “Now the USDA could punt on both reports and not give us a meaningful survey until the November report or even January. Right now, I just tell my clients, ‘Let’s go back to the charts and watch (the prices) here,’ and see where the path of least resistance is.”
While selling has continued for corn and soybeans throughout the week, wheat prices are seeing a recent uptick. Lusk attributes this to ongoing uncertainty over access to wheat markets in Russia and Ukraine.
“That area represents 30 per cent of the world’s (wheat) production. (Russia) has a bumper crop. They have plenty to sell, but who can access it?” he said. “(Ukraine’s) winter wheat harvest got out what they can…It’s going to be this year’s crop that’s going to be affected, leaving new crop wheat in peril on the world market further out here.”
— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
