MarketsFarm — With frigid weather coming out of the Arctic, across the Canadian Prairies and into the U.S., there has been an upswing in wheat prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
Prior to Christmas Day, temperatures are expected to fall as cold as -40 C in the northern Plains to below freezing in parts of Texas.
Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc. at McHenry, Ill. said there is no question of the threat posed to the 2022-23 U.S. winter wheat crop; it’s only a matter of how severe.
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“There was a really bad start to the crop. You get into that Kansas, Oklahoma and even into Nebraska, the really bitter cold is coming there,” Georgy stated, noting “we tend to kill wheat off a few times” during its course.
However, he was presently concerned with winter wheat in the more northerly areas of the continental U.S.
“The bitter cold we are going to have and how long it lasts, that could be detrimental for those northern areas. So, we will probably see a little bit of winterkill there,” Georgy said.
By the end of the six- to 10-day weather forecast, temperatures are to dramatically improve, he said. “It’s like we get this flash warm-up and it gets cold again.”
One area of concern he has, regarding this year’s wheat crop and winterkill, is how short the funds currently are.
“The big managed money — they are short wheat. I think if we see another bout of cold weather through those areas again, I wouldn’t be surprised if… it’s enough to get the funds to say, ‘I don’t want to be short anymore.’”
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One report noted 2022-23 winter wheat plantings in the U.S. could be as high as 34.5 million acres. With the right conditions, a good yield could produce the largest harvest in the last seven years.
However, it won’t be until January when the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to issue its report on winter wheat plantings.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
