Glacier FarmMedia — The seasonal fight for acres between soybeans and corn is in full swing in the United States as markets wait to get a clearer picture on planting intentions for the 2026 growing season.
At its February annual agriculture outlook forum, the United States Department of Agriculture predicted corn plantings in the country would be down by four million acres this year while soybeans would be up by 3.8 million acres. Corn futures dropped sharply in late January on confirmation of the large 2025 crop but have subsequently trended steadily higher with the expectations for a smaller acreage base in 2026 contributing to the gains.
“We’ve seen a gradual steady increase in corn prices since the very bearish January crop report … it’s just grinding it’s way higher,” said Tom Lilja, of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota.
The next big report will be the USDA’s planting intentions estimates at the end of March. If corn area is down by four million acres on the year, Lilja expects the corn market could have more room to the upside — at least in the new crop contracts. However, he added that “we know we’re sitting on a good chunk of old crop corn.”
For soybeans, in addition to the likelihood of increased U.S. acres, Lilja said the large Brazilian crop created “a strong headwind on the market.”
Iran war
The escalating war in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S. sent crude oil and vegetable oil markets climbing higher, but the reaction so far has been more muted in the grain markets. Lilja was surprised by the reaction in wheat especially, as it had rallied sharply in tandem with oil four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine.
