Glacier FarmMedia — The United States Department of Agriculture will not only release its monthly supply/demand estimates on Jan. 12, but also its quarterly stocks report as of Dec. 1, 2025.
Tom Lilja, an analyst for Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said the January report will be especially important as it typically finalizes the yield figures for the current growing year. This year, he expects reduced yields for U.S. corn and soybeans.
“There was a fair amount of rust pressure in Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, through some of those areas,” Lilja said.
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As for wheat, current and future crops may also see declines.
“Probably the biggest expectation (for wheat) is that the U.S. is set to lose (1.3) million acres of planted wheat this year just due to poor market price,” he added. “There were a number of in-state reports that showed very sharp declines in (winter wheat) conditions … We saw a decline of 26 per cent (good to excellent) in Colorado. Nebraska was down 14 per cent, Oklahoma was down nine per cent, Texas was down six per cent and Kansas was down two per cent.”
Lilja also heard that safrinha corn plantings in Brazil could be delayed as a knock-on effect of late soybean plantings due to high soil moisture.
“If that does happen and that weather does become a factor, I would anticipate strength in the corn market,” he said.
March corn, soybean and wheat contracts, except for Minneapolis spring wheat, all saw weekly gains on Jan. 7. While the March corn contract ended the day at US$4.4675 per bushel, Lilja said a two to three bushel per acre cut in corn yield could push the futures past US$4.55/bu.
He said the upcoming reports may already be priced into the markets by the trade, but Lilja warned a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine could potentially put more corn and wheat into the market.
“(Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is one of the reasons our corn exports have been well above-average this year because Ukraine has been limited in shipping,” he explained.
