Glacier FarmMedia—More rain and moderate temperatures across much of the Prairies have created the best growing conditions for durum wheat in years, according to one analyst.
Jerry Klassen of Winnipeg-based Resilient Commodity Analysis said conditions so far have been optimal for the wheat variety and if all goes well, above-average yields could be on the horizon.
“We’ve had significant rains in western Saskatchewan through the growing season. Seeding was a little bit delayed in some areas, but for the most part, the crop is off to a great start,” he said.
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However, Klassen recalled that last year’s crop was also off to a great start before dryness and drought conditions reigned supreme from mid-June to the end of the growing season.
“That resulted in lower yields. Right now, I would say the crop is just about the same or a little bit better at this time,” he said. “This year, it looks like the forecast calls for regular rains in the durum areas and we’re not expected to see the extreme heat like we had last year in the summer.”
Klassen estimated that six million acres of durum wheat were seeded this year across Canada with expected production at approximately 7.5 million tonnes. In Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) monthly principal field crops outlook released on June 20, the agency estimated 6.343 million acres with production at 5.655 million tonnes. Statistics Canada (StatCan) will release their latest acreage estimates on June 27.
Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) prices in Western Canada as of June 21 ranged from C$349.87 to C$366.48 per tonne (C$9.52 to C$9.97 per bushel) according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes).
As durum growers are usually reluctant to forward-sell, according to Klassen, prices in Canada are now at a similar level to those in Europe.
“What we’re seeing here is a relatively bigger crop developing in Turkey than last year. So we’re expecting an increase in Turkish exports and that harvest is going to move into full swing here in July,” he said, adding that the durum harvest is also expected next month in southern France and Spain.
Areas that have already begun their harvest are so far reporting good quality with slightly below-average yields.
“What’s happened is not (so much) Canadian farmer selling, but we’re seeing farm selling from other areas in Turkey and also in Europe … There’s significant harvest pressure in the durum market now. Canadian durum values probably are a little bit overvalued yet compared to where we could see prices a month from now.”
Klassen expects prices to stay put and then decline as growers jump at the chance to convert their durum crop into cash flow.
“The Canadian market will likely stay flat for the next three to four weeks and then maybe come under a little bit of pressure at harvest yet, but we’re not expecting a rally until probably next spring when the market starts to factor in lower acreage in Canada and the United States,” he said.
