Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Expect canola futures to fall back in the coming months, said analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital in Winnipeg. Klassen pointed to the Statistics Canada production update and China as two reasons for the coming declines.
On Sept. 17, StatCan raised its estimate on the 2025/26 canola harvest to 20.03 million tonnes from the 19.94 million it projected in August. StatCan will issue one more production report in December.
“Everyone feels pretty confident with a 20-million-plus crop,” Klassen said. “When that (December) survey comes out it’s probably going to be 20.50 million tonnes, maybe closer to 21 million.”
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Canadian farmers combined 19.24 million tonnes in 2024/25, and the five-average is 18.26 million.
Appears to be great yields
Klassen said the cool July weather aided what appears to be greater-than-expected yields with about a third of the canola harvested on the Canadian Prairies. He suggested this year’s yield could be a new record, surpassing the 42.3 bushels per acre in 2016 according to StatCan. Average canola yields for 2025/26 were estimated at 41.2 bu./ac. in the Sept. 17 StatCan report.
As well, the United States soybean harvest will kick into high gear come October, with harvest pressure weighing on the soy complex. The latest estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged the 2025/26 crop at 116.82 million tonnes, down from 118.84 million gleaned the previous year.
China not buying
The absence of China from buying North American oilseeds continues to be felt, but Klassen said some of Canada’s lost canola business to China could be made up for.
“What we do have is a biofuel policy of the U.S. that’s going to enhance the Canadian crush,” he said.
Klassen projected canola futures to break below C$600 per tonne, likely to C$580, especially after the domestic crush demand has been met.
He expects the U.S. and China to reach a trade deal that includes soybeans sometime within the next four months. Reports said Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could speak by phone as early as Sept. 19.
“That’s going to be the catalyst on Canadian negotiations on canola,” Klassen said of China’s stiff tariffs on canola seed, oil and meal.
Until then, he said farmers will sell their canola only when they need to.
