Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Canola prices at the Intercontinental Exchange were on a rollercoaster ride during the week ended Oct. 30.
The January contract traded within a wide C$20 per tonne range, moving slightly lower on the week.
Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg attributed canola’s short-lived rally during the week to rising Malaysian palm oil prices which hit contract highs due to tight supplies.
“(Palm oil) tends to be a market indicator. It leads to what you’ll see in the North American oilseed market. That has been on a tear to the upside recently,” he said. “I think it puts some underpinning to our markets and you can combine that with technical support levels our canola market has managed to bounce off of.”
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Canola prices were also supported by an extremely high export pace early in the 2024-25 marketing year. Tryhuk believes canola importers are trying to get ahead of possible retaliatory tariffs from China against Canadian canola, months after the former stated it would start an anti-dumping investigation on the oilseed.
“Our market has seen spectacular demand from China early in the season, well exceeding previous crop years and they book as many cargoes as they can ahead of potential tariffs being imposed,” he added.
Prior to canola’s downturn during trading on Oct. 30, Tryhuk mentioned that prices were acting bullish. However, he added that every time canola comes down, it seems to recover very quickly.
“When you look at a chart pattern from mid-September until now, with the exception of a couple of setbacks, it looks quite strong and firm and I wouldn’t be surprised if the market were to re-test the highs we saw in late July when we were up to C$680 per tonne,” Tryhuk said.
