(Resource News International) — Prairie farmers still holding onto large old-crop mustard supplies are unlikely to see any price improvements in the immediate future, especially as new-crop acres are looking to be at least as large as in 2009.
Current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projections would see the country carrying over 115,000 tonnes of mustard at the end of the current marketing year, well above the 44,000 tonnes of carryover posted the previous year.
A carry-out of 115,000 tonnes would be nearly enough to meet the average yearly demand for mustard.
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Baine Fritzler, a seed dealer and farmer-director with the Saskatchewan Mustard Development Commission, said actual mustard supplies in farmers’ hands were likely not as large as the government projections, but would still be burdensome overall.
Part of the large supply situation had to do with the fact that end-users generally use the market to keep the commodity in farmers’ hands in order to control inventory costs, he said.
Looking to 2010, Fritzler noted that some analysts were calling for a sharp increase in 2010 mustard acres.
However, he expected actual seedings would likely be steady on the year, noting current new-crop bids for yellow mustard that top out at 22 cents per pound are well off the 35 cents per pound seen at the same time the previous year.
Prices would need to be above 30 cents per pound for mustard to be profitable, he said.
Fritzler, who farms at Govan, Sask., about 100 km north of Regina, said brown and oriental mustard prices were even lower, but there were still producers looking to book seed.
Part of that interest, he said, was tied to the fact that producers will grow what they know, and then market it later when prices are better.
