Forecast issued Dec. 17, covering Dec. 17 to 24, 2025
Highlights
- A strong Alberta clipper is forecasted to track across the southern Prairies, but the strength and track of the system remains to be seen.
- Alberta can widespread snow to southern and central regions on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Friday could bring another quick shot of snow.
- Saskatchewan looks set for blizzard conditions later on Wednesday.
- Manitoba can expect blizzard conditions to set in late Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
- Cold temperatures are expected to build in behind the lows in time for the weekend.
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Overview
Well, so much for a quieter pattern. While we did see a short window of quieter weather last weekend, the parade of storm systems coming in off the Pacific continued. This was thanks in part to an upper atmospheric river, which brought copious moisture to the Pacific coast.
Looking back, the weather models were not that far off, but when we are talking about weather, a couple hundred kilometers can make a big difference.
Up until the weekend things went pretty well. Cold Arctic air settled in. This brought the coldest air of the season to parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. After that it started to fall apart a bit.
The area of low pressure, which was forecasted to move in off the Pacific and then track across the northern Prairies, developed as forecasted. However, it was a a bit stronger than expected and it also tracked further south. This brough snow and freezing rain to the central Prairies early this week along with the forecasted mild temperatures.
In fact, the temperatures ended up being significantly warmer than expected with daytime highs pushing +5 C. However, most regions saw less than 12 hours of above freezing temperatures.
More weather coverage: Predicting Manitoba winter snowfall
Now we come to the current situation across the Prairies. This looks to be a potentially difficult forecast period.
Currently a strong Alberta Clipper has developed and is forecasted to track across the southern Prairies. The weather models are still bouncing back and forth on both the strength of the system and its exact track. Latest model runs have the low tracking from around Calgary on Wednesday morning and then into northeastern North Dakota by early Thursday morning.
Most of the precipitation will fall in a narrow band just to the north of the low track, so the exact track of the low is important. The strength of the low is also important as to how windy it will be and how weather systems will behave after the low passes by. Strong areas of low pressure can alter the overall weather pattern, which makes it difficult to accurately forecast what will happen once they pass by.
With that said, the weather models are showing a second, but weaker, area of low-pressure tacking across the southern and central Prairies on Friday. This should bring another quick round of snow.
Over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will build in. This will bring a return to below average temperatures, especially over the central and eastern Prairies.
In the days leading up to Christmas, the weather models are showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure tracking across the south-central Prairies. These may bring more clouds than sun, seasonable temperatures, along with the chance of flurries or light snow.
Alberta
This forecast period will start with a strong area of low pressure moving in from southern B.C. This low looks to bring widespread snow to southern and central regions on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Currently it looks like southern regions could see up to 5 cm with amounts further north possibly pushing 20 cm before the system moves out.
A second area of low pressure is forecasted to push in from the west on Friday. This low looks to take a more northerly route, which will result in central and northern regions seeing a quick 5 cm of snow as it zips though.
Behind this low, cool Arctic air will push southwards bringing a return to slightly below average temperatures.
Early next week the weather models are showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure pushing in from the Pacific over central regions.
Confidence in these systems is low. Should they materialize, expect partly to mostly-cloudy skies in the days leading up to Christmas with occasional flurries or periods of light snow with seasonable temperatures.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Just like Alberta, these regions are starting this forecast period off with a strong area of low pressure moving in from southern Alberta. Snow is forecasted to develop in a narrow band along a warm front, which is stretching eastwards from the low.
Across Saskatchewan, expect snow to develop around noon over central regions while southern regions may be warm enough for either wet snow or rain.
The precipitation will transition to all snow later in the day as the main area of low pressure moves through. Latest model indications are for central regions to see upwards of 20 to 25 centimeters of snow with southern regions seeing 5 to 15 cm. Winds look to be strong with blizzard conditions very likely.
Conditions look to improve overnight Wednesday with sunny skies moving on Thursday as arctic high pressure briefly builds in.
Across Manitoba, the snow looks to move in by late in the afternoon on Wednesday. Where the heaviest snow will set up is still up in the air. Currently indications are it will be slightly north of the Trans-Canada highway but any small nudge to the storms track will change that.
More weather coverage: Prairie winter snowfall forecast 2025-2026
Snow looks to continue overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. This is expected to bring around 5 cm of snow near the border, increasing to 20+ cm under the main storm track. As with Saskatchewan, winds look to become very strong with blizzard conditions developing during the evening and lasting possibly into Thursday morning.
A second weaker area of low pressure is forecasted to track across the central Prairies on Saturday. Most of the snow from this system will be over central regions of both Saskatchewan and Manitoba but southern regions will likely see another couple of centimeters. Cold Arctic high pressure will then build in behind this low bring below average temperatures and clearing skies over the weekend.
For the first half of next week, the weather models are showing two weak areas of low-pressure tracking across the central Prairies. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but should it materialize, these regions can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, near average temperatures, and a chance of some flurries or occasional periods of light snow.
