Farmers and other rural residents in Manitoba’s Red River Valley can still expect “significant” flooding this spring, but not near the levels seen in 1997 or 2009.
Mild weather in much of the province led to a “slow, steady melt” about two weeks earlier than normal, creating average or below-average spring runoff in most of Manitoba, except for some areas near the U.S. border which can expect above-average levels.
Crests on Manitoba’s portion of the Red are expected to come later this month and arrive south of Winnipeg in early April, at levels forecast as similar to 2006 and “a little lower” than those seen in 1979 and 1996.
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“There is still a small possibility of a flood of 2009 proportions, but it would be caused by adverse weather such as a heavy snowstorm or a significant rainstorm,” the province said in a release Thursday.
Flood levels around those seen in 2006 would be three feet below those seen in 2009.
As was the case in 2006, it’s expected some roads will need to be closed in southern Manitoba and some communities’ ring dikes will need to be “partially” closed, the province said. “However, no communities are expected to lose all road access.”
Most eastern tributaries of the Red from northern Minnesota to Winnipeg have already crested and shouldn’t contribute much flow when the Red’s crest arrives in Manitoba.
“Some uncertainty remains with respect to the effect of western tributaries from northern North Dakota to the Morris area, which have just started to run,” the province said.
On the U.S. portion of the Red, meanwhile, crests are expected in the Fargo and Grand Forks areas of North Dakota this weekend, the province noted.
Levels at Fargo were recently forecast to come in just below those seen in 2009. Last year’s floods in that region of the U.S. led to evacuations, property damage and, for many farmers, unseeded acres.
The Canadian Wheat Board said last week it would move additional rail cars to the area to clear space in grain elevators in Manitoba’s Red River Valley, for area farmers to deliver grain at risk from flooding.
Elsewhere in Manitoba, runoff is just getting underway in the Assiniboine, Pembina and Souris river watersheds, where sub-freezing temperatures over the next five days will slow the melt and runoff process, the province said Thursday.
The province added in a separate release Thursday that it’s now taking on a “hydraulic assessment” of the Red River and river flows in the Morris area, in the next phase of its plan to improve flood protection on Highway 75, the main truck route connecting Winnipeg with Grand Forks, Fargo and Minneapolis.
