Glacier FarmMedia — Prior to the January supply and demand report being released by the United States Department of Agriculture, its attachés in Argentina and Brazil issued their respective reports on oilseed production for 2025/26.
Why it matters: South American soybean production is a major influence on canola futures and the Chicago soy complex.
For the most part, there was little difference between the USDA’s numbers in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released on Jan 12 and the attaché reports out a few days earlier.
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Argentina:
• The Buenos Aires desk projected a soybean harvest of 47.50 million tonnes, down from 50.50 million in 2024/25. The USDA is at 48.50 million tonnes, compared to 51.11 million the previous year.
• The attaché said delays to planting due to heavy rains and farmers switching to corn were the reasons for the decline.
• The attaché said soyoil production is to be 8.60 million tonnes and the USDA estimated 8.18 million.
• Soyoil exports are to be 6.45 million tonnes according to the attaché with the USDA at 6.15 million.
Brazil:
• The USDA attaché in Brasilia estimated soybean harvest at 177 million tonnes and the department upped its call by three million to now 178 million tonnes. Either number would be record production for Brazil, which provides well in excess of 40 per cent of the world’s soybeans.
• The impetus for such enormous production is increased cultivated acres due to Brazil’s new B15 biofuel mandate. The attaché placed harvested area at 49.10 million hectares, inline with the USDA’s official call and up from 48.80 million estimated in December.
• Also, Brazil exports a majority of its soybeans. The Brasilia desk projected those exports to hit 113 million tonnes while the official department call rose 1.5 million tonnes to 114 million.
