Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The United States Department of Agriculture is still forecasting a record-large corn crop in 2025/26 despite lowering its average yield projection in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released Sept. 12.
Corn
Average U.S. corn yields for 2025/26 were cut to 186.7 bu./ac. from 188.8 in August, but that’s higher than last year’s 179.3. With the USDA upping harvest area to 90 million acres from 88.7 million in August, production was raised by 70 million bushels to now 16.81 billion.
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Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels at 2.98 billion and ending stocks were cut seven million bushels at 2.11 billion.
Soybeans
The U.S. soybean yield for 2025/26 was virtually unchanged from last month, with the USDA pegging it at 53.5 bushels per acre compared to 53.6 in August.
Although that’s an improvement over the 50.7 bu./ac. gleaned in 2024/25, this year’s harvested area estimate of 80.3 million acres is down 5.8 million from a year ago. That’s to result in year-over-year production slipping 70 million bushels at 4.30 billion.
With the ongoing lack of export sales to China, the USDA trimmed its 2025/26 forecast by 100 million bushels at 1.69 billion. That’s to result in the soybean carryover bumping up 10 million bushels at 300 million bushels.
Wheat
Wheat saw some movement in exports and the carryover, with the USDA raising the former by 25 million bushels to now 900 million. That saw ending stocks for 2025/26 lowered by the same amount to 844 million.
World production
Globally, the USDA maintained their production data for Brazil and Argentina regarding their soybeans and corn. For 2025/26 Brazil soybean output was held at 175 million tonnes and Argentina remained at 48.5 million. For corn, Brazil was kept at 131 million tonnes and 53 million for Argentina.
One noticeable change was 2025/26 world corn production for the European Union, with the USDA cutting it by 2.7 million tonnes from last month to 55.3 million.
Global wheat output saw a number of increases, with the largest being 3.5 million tonnes for Australia at 34.5 million, followed by the EU up 1.85 million tonnes at 140.1 million. Russian production rose 1.5 million tonnes at 85 million and Canadian output was upped one million tonnes at 36 million.
-1 acre = 0.405 hectares
