MarketsFarm — Projected average yields and production for wheat and soybeans for 2022-23 went against many analysts’ expectations, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
USDA released its monthly world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Friday, which surprisingly showed upward revisions for average yields and production despite pre-report estimates showing the opposite. Most analysts believed late seeding in the spring, as well as hot and dry conditions over much of the U.S., would curtail crop growth. However, while soybeans are expected to see higher ending stocks compared to last month’s estimates, wheat ending stocks are estimated to be lower.
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USDA projects 2022-23 ending stocks for all varieties of wheat to be 610 million bushels, down 29 million from the July estimates. As beginning stocks stayed the same at 660 million bushels, wheat production was raised by two million bushels to 1.783 billion, largely due to a projected 166 million bushel rise in hard red spring wheat production. Estimates for food and feed use rose, as well as exports which increased 25 million bushels to 825 million. The average wheat yield estimate is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from July.
Beginning stocks for durum were estimated at 21 million and ending stocks were at 27 million, a three million bushel decrease from last month’s estimates.
The estimate for world wheat ending stocks was decreased by 180,000 tonnes to 267.34 million, the lowest level in six years. Projected beginning stocks were down 3.75 million tonnes to 276.35 million, while production rose nearly eight million tonnes to a record 779.6 million due to higher production in Russia, China and Australia.
Projected 2022-23 ending stocks for U.S. soybeans were increased by 15 million bushels to 245 million, with a 10 million rise in beginning stocks to 225 million contributing to the total. The soybean production estimate was raised 26 million from July to 4.531 billion bushels. Crushings remained at 2.245 billion bushels, but exports received an increase of 20 million to 2.155 billion. The average yield is estimated to be at 51.9 bu./ac., up 0.4 from July.
Unlike last month, world soybean ending stocks are projected to surpass the triple digits with a 1.8 million tonne increase to 101.41 million. Beginning stocks were one million tonnes higher at 89.73 million, while the production estimate was raised 1.39 million tonnes to 392.79 million.
Ending stocks for corn in the U.S. are projected to be 1.388 billion bushels, a decrease of 82 million from the July estimates. Beginning stocks were estimated at 1.53 billion bushels, 20 million more than projected last month, while production is slated at 14.359 billion, a cut of 146 million. The export estimate was also cut by 25 million bushels to 2.375 billion. The season’s first survey-based corn yield estimate is 175.4 bu./ac., down 1.6 from last month’s projection. Illinois, South Dakota and Minnesota are reporting higher yields, while Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and Nebraska’s yields are lower.
Worldwide ending stocks for corn are expected to be 306.68 million tonnes, down 6.26 million from July’s estimate. Beginning stocks are estimated at 311.84 million tonnes, down 440,000 from last month, while production is at 1.18 billion tonnes, six million less than July’s projection.
— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
