Understanding the barley market can help cattle producers make buying decisions, says a commodity market analyst.
Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital, said Canadian barley yields increased by 25 per cent in 2025 and China took advantage of lower prices in August and September to buy an estimated 1,472,000 tonnes of the crop from September to December.
Saudi Arabia entered the Canadian market from September to November, buying an estimated 251,000 tonnes.
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“The Canadian farmer likes to sell his barley crop in the fall,” Klassen recently told those attending his 2026 cattle market update in Lethbridge.
“Saudi Arabia buying Canadian feed barley, that is always the lowest-priced barley in the world. If you know that Canada is selling barley to Saudi Arabia, that’s the bottom for barley in Western Canada. That’s when you got to take a step forward and take coverage, buy as much barley as you can.”
WHY IT MATTERS: Knowing month-to-month international feed demands for exports can put producers ahead of the curve in predicting commodity markets for corn and barley.
Domestic feed demand for cattle makes for seasonal highs in the winter. Due to the significant rise in barley yields last year, acreage should be similar with less on-farm stock.
“There really is no cushion if we have a crop problem,” said Klassen.
Cattle-on-feed numbers are in the lows in August and September, suppressing demand, which coincides with when farmers wants to sell their barley right off the combine. Aggressive selling coupled with lower demand gives a lower barley price.
“There’s massive exports in October and November and then declines, but at the same time, domestic feed demand makes its seasonal highs in December and January. You get a snowstorm and then it causes the market to strengthen even more because the farmer stops selling,” said Klassen.
A bullish outlook is being projected for corn in 2026.
Ethanol demands continue to be strong, coupled with exports that are higher than the previous year.
Cattle-on-feed numbers in the United States are similar to those in Western Canada, being seasonally high from December to February. The U.S. still has to carry the overall export market until April.
Corn is the largest component of the global trade of feed grains by a large margin.
Its largest exporter is the U.S., selling 50 to 55 per cent of its corn from September to December.
Brazil, also a heavy hitter, plants two corn crops a year, with the fall crop, along with soybeans, earmarked for domestic consumption. The main export crop is seeded in February.
Argentina produces about 50 million tonnes but has suffered from extremely dry conditions.
“You have a risk premium developing because Argentina is dry, Brazil is only going to have their exportable surplus in late April-May, so the U.S. is the dominant exporter until spring. You have very strong export demand and have storing domestic demand as well, so that drives a higher price,” said Klassen.
“He now has 50 per cent of the crop to sell for the remainder nine months of the crop year. So that farmer selling is not as strong. The market almost has to work to get it from the farmer’s hands. We are looking at the barley and the corn market to make seasonal highs in April and May. That market is going to incorporate a risk premium in production because we are looking at lower corn acreage in the U.S. as well. “
March and April are typically when major funds enter the market — when the Brazilian crop is in pollination — causing seasonal price increases to go along with related barley markets.
