By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Dec. 10 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished either side of steady on Tuesday, getting little support from the Chicago soy complex.
At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was firm at 75.56 U.S. cents, but continued to weigh on values.
Reports stated that the two Canadians who have been detained in China for a year will soon go on trial. Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor are facing espionage-related changes. A trader speculated that could mean there has been behind-the-scenes movement in the China/Canada trade dispute.
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The United States Department of Agriculture released its December supply and demand report today. There were few major changes in the report from November, which meant it had little effect on the markets.
There were 29,352 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 32,161 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 25,178 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Jan 458.80 dn 0.30
Mar 468.00 dn 0.10
May 475.90 up 0.10
Jul 481.80 up 0.30
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly higher on Tuesday, as progress in the United States/China trade war edged-out the December supply and demand report.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) today. The report kept the 2019/20 soybean carryover at 475 million bushels, as in the November report. For the global ending stocks, the USDA estimated 96.4 million tonnes.
China eliminated tariffs on U.S. soybean imports on Monday. The move was said to be a gesture of goodwill as the two countries move towards signing their Phase One trade agreement. The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Purdue, stated today that President Donald Trump is very likely to cancel a planned tariff hike on Chinese imports scheduled for Dec. 15.
Officials from the U.S., Mexico and Canada met today in Mexico City to make some changes to their tri-lateral trade deal that replaces NAFTA.). Mexico previously ratified the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) earlier this year, but its ratification in the U.S. Congress was greatly delayed. The USMCA provides the U.S. with US$50 billion per year in non-tariff agricultural trade, according to a report.
Conab, in its December report, estimated Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production at 121.1 million tonnes. That’s a 5.3 per cent increase of the country’s 2018/19 soybean harvest. The USDA’s estimate was for 123.0 million tonnes.
Malaysian palm oil stocks are at a three-month low, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Stocks dropped 4.1 per cent to 2.26 million tonnes in November. Also, production in Malaysia during November dropped 14.4 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes. That’s on top of a 10.4 per cent decline in October.
CORN futures were mixed on Tuesday, with the soon-to-end December contract down and the March contract up slightly.
In the December WASDE, the carryover estimate for U.S. corn was maintained at 1.91 billion bushels.
In the USDA’s final weekly crop progress report for 2019, the corn harvest reached 92 per cent complete nation-wide. North Dakota farmers stood at 43 per cent finished after being faced with difficult conditions, including large amounts of snow and frigid temperatures. The USDA resumes its weekly reports in April.
Conab pegged the Brazilian 2019/20 corn harvest at 98.41 million tonnes, which is under last year’s crop of 100.0 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the USDA estimated the Brazilian crop at 101.0 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were higher on Tuesday, as the only commodity to benefit from today’s supply and demand report.
In the December WASDE, the carryover for U.S. wheat was lowered by 40 million bushels, and the export estimate was raised by 25 million bushels. The ending stocks were pegged at 974 million bushels.
Also in the December report, the USDA estimated global ending stocks at 289.5 million tonnes. That included estimating Australian wheat production at 16.1 million tonnes, which was above private estimates of about 15 million tonnes.
Texas reported its wheat crop was at 23 per cent good to excellent. That’s a drop of six points from the previous week and is due to dry conditions in the state.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union increased 63 per cent from July to now to 11.95 million tonnes.
