By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 31 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mixed on Tuesday, with losses in the front months and gains in the more deferred positions.
Declines in the Chicago soy complex and European rapeseed weighed on values, which received a small measure of support from gains in Malaysian palm oil.
Statistics Canada’s production report released on Monday has proven to be a bearish influence on canola. The 14.7 million tonnes of the oilseed the federal agency forecast for this year came in above several market predictions. However, the surveys for the report were completed in July and the Sept. 30 edition will have a better handle on the harvest.
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The markets will get their first look at harvest progress on the Prairies this week when Manitoba issues its weekly crop report later this afternoon. Despite recent rains, advances in combining will have been made, with farmers concentrating on their cereals as canola waits its turn.
At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was relatively steady and lending little direction to canola. The loonie was at 79.29 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 79.35.
There were 29,210 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 19,498 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,176 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 895.30 dn 6.30
Jan 880.40 dn 3.10
Mar 860.20 up 1.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Tuesday as Hurricane Ida has caused disruptions in vessel traffic and at loading facilities on the Mississippi River.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its weekly crop progress report on Monday, which rated soybean conditions at 56 per cent good to excellent as of Aug. 29, and the same from the previous week. Soybeans setting pods rose to 93 per cent, while soybeans dropping leaves reached nine per cent.
Ahead of tomorrow’s fats and oils report from the USDA, trade expectations peg the July soybean crush at about 165 million bushels.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. has maintained his yield projection for U.S. soybeans at 50 bushels per acre. As for South American production for 2021/22, he estimated Brazil at 143 million to 145 million tonnes, and Argentina at 50 million to 51 million tonnes.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) was again investigating China’s use of grain import quotas. Two years ago the WTO ruled against China’s use of such quotas, to which the country said it complied. However the U.S. has disagreed, indicating that it could pursue retaliatory measures against China.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, also due to the aftermath of Ida and on the weather forecast.
Scattered showers are forecast for the southern portion of the U.S. Midwest today and tomorrow, advancing from the west to the east. Temperatures in the U.S. are expected to be normal to above normal.
The USDA maintained corn conditions at 60 per cent good to excellent in the latest crop progress report. Corn dough was at 91 per cent, with corn dented at 59 per cent and corn mature at nine per cent.
Market guesses prior to tomorrow’s crush report from the USDA put corn for ethanol production in July at nearly 449 million bushels.
Cordonnier held his forecast on U.S. corn production at 175.5 bu/ac. As for Brazil, he trimmed 2.4 per cent from his call on current corn production at 82 million tonnes and pegged next year’s harvest to reap 116 million to 118 million tonnes. He placed corn production in Argentina for 2021/22 at 52 million to 54 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were down on Tuesday, catching spillover from soybeans and corn.
The U.S. spring wheat harvest gained 11 points on the week at 88 per cent complete and 17 points above the five-year average. In addition, the U.S. barley and oat harvests were respectively 85 per cent and 92 per cent done.
Ukraine reported its wheat harvest was at 99.4 per cent complete, which will bring in 32.5 million tonnes and make more than 73 per cent of it available for export.
While Australia’s wheat crop was reported to be in good shape, the weather forecast of 10 days of dry conditions in Western Australia could temper future projections.
In international purchases, Iran bought 180,000 to 240,000 tonnes of milling wheat from Russia over the last two weeks.
