North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola turns around to finish stronger

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Gains all around in Chicago

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Wednesday after trading to either side of unchanged.

Increases in crude oil, the Chicago soy complex and Malaysian palm oil pulled canola out of its losses. Declines in MATIF rapeseed tempered further upswings.

However, a broker cautioned canola has few of its own fundamentals to build a rally on. The broker added that a backlog in railcars has crushers turning away trucks, noting this was the result of a large harvest.

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Sunny skies and temperatures between the mid-teen degrees Celsius and the low 20s will spur on the remaining Prairie harvest.

Manitoba reported its overall harvest was 86 per cent complete with the province’s canola at 92 per cent done.

The Canadian dollar dipped on Wednesday afternoon with the loonie at 71.64 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 71.68.

There were 71,785 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 38,733 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 51,844 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Nov     617.00    up  2.00

                Jan     631.00    up  2.90

                Mar     642.40    up  3.10

                May     652.50    up  3.20

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade continued higher on Wednesday, as trade waits for the multi-billion dollar aid package for United States soybean growers.

Reports said the U.S. government shutdown has caused a delay to the roll out of that package. It’s believed it could be as much as US$13 billion.

With the shutdown, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is not expected to release its October supply and demand report on Thursday. However, a Reuters survey placed U.S. soybean yields at 53.2 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 in the USDA’s September report. The reduction is to trim production by 30 million bushels at 4.27 billion.

Brazil’s October soybean exports were pegged to be 7.12 million tonnes, compared to 4.44 million in October 2024.

CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, gleaning support from soy, wheat and crude oil.

Despite the shutdown, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Oct. 3 averaged 1.07 million barrels per day. That’s up 76,000 BPD from the previous week. Ethanol stocks slipped 44,000 barrels at 22.72 million.

Trade estimates cut the U.S. corn yield by 1.7 bu./ac. at 185.

Brazilian October corn exports were projected to be six million tonnes versus the year ago of 5.67 million.

WHEAT futures were higher on Wednesday, in sympathy with soy and corn.

Dry weather across winter wheat growing areas of the U.S. is to  allow an upswing in planting progress.

The market projected U.S. wheat stocks to increase by 31 million bushels at 875 million.

SovEcon added 1.5 million tonnes to its call on 2025/26 Ukrainian wheat crop at 22.90 million.

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