By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 8 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures saw another round of gains on Tuesday, while the old crop July contract remained in retreat.
A Winnipeg-based trader asserted that someone is holding back canola prices to the extent they are about C$50 per tonne behind Chicago soyoil.
Canola still received spillover support from more increases in the Chicago soy complex. There was additional support from European rapeseed, while Malaysian palm oil incurred small declines.
The Prairie weather forecast has called for rain over the next three days over the eastern regions. The amounts expected are 15 to 35 millimeters and upwards to 50 millimeters in some localized areas.
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By Glen Hallick Glacier Farm Media | MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures were a pinch lower by late Monday…
At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was pulling back, with the loonie at 82.57 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 82.83.
Canola production in Australia is expected to rise 20 per cent in 2021/22 at 4.2 million tonnes, according to the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
There were 21,622 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 24,935 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,824 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Jul 865.80 dn 16.60
Nov 774.20 up 2.60
Jan 772.60 up 3.00
Mar 764.90 up 5.20
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) bounced back on a ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ amid difficult to find soybean sources in the United States.
Major crop areas in the northern half of the U.S. are expected to remain hot and dry, while the southern half is to cool off with rain.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its weekly crop progress report on Monday, with the first soybean ratings for 2021. The department said the soybeans were 67 per cent good to excellent as of June 6, which is down five points from a year ago. Soybeans planted reached 90 per cent complete, which is 11 points ahead of the five-year average. Also, soybeans emerged hit 76 per cent, which is 17 points up on the average.
Ahead of Thursday’s supply and demand report, the trade expects the USDA to trim 400,000 tonnes off of global soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 at 86.2 million. Projections for new crop are a one million tonne cut to an increase of three million tonnes. In May, the USDA pegged 2021/22 ending stocks for global soybeans at 91.1 million tonnes.
CORN futures were higher on Tuesday, catching spillover from soybeans.
The USDA reported corn conditions were 72 per cent good to excellent, a drop of four points on the week and three behind the five-year average. Corn emerged climbed nine points to 90 per cent, sitting eight ahead of the average pace.
The drought in Brazil continues to stymie corn production. There’s a move in the trade to lower Brazil’s production to around 90 million tonnes. Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his estimate to 92 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Tuesday, with gains for Chicago and Kansas City, but more sharp losses for Minneapolis.
The first winter wheat harvest numbers were issued by the USDA, with two per cent in the bin, according to the USDA. That’s five points behind the five-year average. In Texas, the harvest was at 20 per cent complete.
The U.S. winter wheat crop improved two points on the week, at 50 per cent good to excellent, almost on par with the average. About 85 per cent of the crop has headed, just one point below the average.
As for spring wheat, its condition dropped by five points to 38 per cent good to excellent. A year ago, U.S. spring wheat was 82 per cent good to excellent. So far, 90 per cent of the crop has emerged, which is four points better than the average.
