By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 30 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were down mostly on Monday, although losses had backed well away from earlier lows. The more significant losses came in the front months while the more deferred positions were mixed.
Weakness in the Chicago soy complex proved to be stronger over the latest Statistics Canada production report. The federal agency estimated 2021/22 canola production at 14.7 million tonnes, for a drop of more than 24 per cent from the previous year.
A trader also noted, “there are mammoth amounts of money on the table,” which could see profit-taking. More so with the November contract remaining relatively expensive compared to other edible oils. He said it’s very likely that the next Statistics Canada could lower production further once a better grasp of the harvest is obtained, as yields have proven so far to be well below expectations.
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While the Prairies are in the mid 20 degrees Celsius, over the coming days they are to cool off. Rain is also in the forecast, with northern Alberta to receive the heaviest amounts. Most of the southern Prairies are remain dry, but southern Manitoba is likely to get rain this week.
At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was higher, providing additional pressure on canola values. The loonie climbed to 79.30 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 79.15.
There were 19,498 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 26,423 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,798 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 901.60 dn 11.10
Jan 883.50 dn 6.60
Mar 859.20 dn 1.80
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Monday, as overall exports remained below those from last year.
In the weekly export inspections report, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said 377,341 tonnes of soybeans were shipped the week ended Aug. 26. That’s a jump of nearly 57.3 per cent from the previous week. The year-to-date exports total nearly 59.28 million tonnes, 37.1 per cent more than this time last year.
The USDA reported a private sale of 256,000 tonnes of soybeans to China. Delivery is to during the upcoming marketing year, which starts on Wednesday.
The USDA will publish its weekly crop progress report at 3 pm CDT.
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, which struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, the storm surge caused the Mississippi River to reverse course, which disrupted vessel traffic.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its seven-day forecast, which has called for one to three inches for rain for Nebraska, Iowa and the Dakotas.
CORN futures were down as well on Monday, due to a drop in exports.
The USDA reported weekly corn export inspections of 562,549 tonnes, down 24.5 per cent from the previous week. The year-to-date exports are almost 65.76 million tonnes, almost 57 per cent more than a year ago.
In a complete reversal of fortune, the Western U.S. Corn Belt has been wet for much of the last two weeks as the eastern side has remained dry.
For the Center-South region of Brazil, Safras and Mercado reported the planting of the first corn crop at 10.82 million acres, up 0.7 per cent from last year. However the estimate was below the consultancy’s estimate of 10.87 million acres.
Taiwan issued an international tender for 65,000 tonnes of corn with offers due on Aug. 31.
WHEAT futures also were lower on Monday, caught up in the spillover from soybeans and corn.
The USDA said weekly wheat export inspections tallied 316,844 tonnes and were 56.6 per cent less than the previous week. For the 2021/22 crop year, total exports have now reached 6.05 million tonnes, but are 10.6 per cent behind last year.
SovEcon further cut its projection for Russian wheat exports by 8.6 per cent at 33.9 million tonnes, reportedly the lowest level in five years. The cut was due to a smaller crop, a slow pace in current exports and more competition in light of increasing export prices.
In international purchases, Egypt had tendered for 60,000 tonnes of wheat from Ukraine, with 120,000 from Romania and 180,000 tonnes from Russia. Meanwhile, Algeria has called for 50,000 tonnes of wheat.
