North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola corrects lower

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Published: July 20, 2018

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, July 20 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts were weaker on Friday, as a rally in the Canadian dollar triggered profit-taking to end the week after four straight sessions of gains.

Expectations for large ending stocks and ideas that exports may not live up to earlier forecasts added to the softer tone, according to participants.

Overnight rains in Manitoba and Alberta were also bearish for values, as the moisture will help boost the yield potential where it hit. However, much of Saskatchewan missed out on the latest moisture, and persistent dryness concerns helped underpin the futures.

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Strength in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil was also supportive.

About 10,329 canola contracts traded, which compares with Thursday when 11,884 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,216 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled with small gains on Friday, as solid export demand and the need to keep some weather premiums in the market provided support. However, mounting trade tensions kept a lid on the upside.

United States President Donald Trump said in an interview that he would consider placing tariffs on all US$500 billion worth of Chinese imports, which would undoubtedly raise the prospects of more Chinese tariffs on U.S. commodities like soybeans.

CORN futures were higher on Friday, as Thursday’s solid weekly export sales data continued to provide support.

Declining production estimates out of Argentina added to the firmer tone, as any reductions there could open the door for more US business.

WHEAT futures were higher across the board, finding support from weather concerns in Europe and the Black Sea region where dryness is cutting into production prospects.

Japan has lifted its temporary ban on Canadian wheat that was put in place last month when some genetically modified wheat of unknown origin was discovered in Alberta.

The advancing U.S. winter wheat harvest and relatively favourable spring wheat growing conditions in the northern plains and Canada tempered the advances.

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