North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down with soy complex, Prairie rains

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Published: May 20, 2021

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, May 20 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Thursday, with the nearby July contract down its C$30 per tonne daily limit and more modest declines in the more deferred months.

Traders bailing out of long positions accounted for the selling pressure in July, with most of the commercial attention now on the new crop contracts. Domestic crushers and line companies are generally pricing off of the November contract, for both old and new crop business, due to the volatility in July.

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Losses in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex and strength in the Canadian dollar contributed to the declines in canola.

Widespread rains across Western Canada also bearish for values. However, more precipitation will be needed going forward, with canola still looking relatively cheap given the tight supplies and solid demand projections.

About 19,049 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 19,623 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 9,028 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday, after trading to both sides of unchanged. The active Midwestern seeding pace and relatively favourable crop conditions contributed to the eventual declines.

Weekly United States soybean export sales included just under 200,000 tonnes of old and new crop business combined. Soymeal sales were solid, but soyoil sales were a net negative which contributed to the losses in that market.

General weakness in world vegetable oil markets also weighed on soybean prices.

CORN was stronger on the day, underpinned by solid demand and South American production concerns.

Net weekly U.S. corn sales of about 280,000 tonnes of old crop beat expectations, hitting a three week high, with good demand from Mexico and Japan more than offsetting cancelations from China. New crop corn sales topped four million tonnes, marking the largest weekly total on record.

A surprise strike by dock workers in Argentina was halting exports out of the country and contributing to the gains in corn.

Declining Brazilian crop estimates, due to dryness there, were also supportive.

WHEAT futures were down across the board.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales were solid, with old crop sales of 121,000 tonnes hitting a three week high and new crop business of 317,000 at the top end of trade guesses.

A crop tour of winter wheat growing regions in Kansas wrapped up on Thursday. While damage from cold temperatures and a lack of moisture was starting to show up in the results, average yields were still well above the five-year average.

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