North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola drops with speculative selling

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: July 23, 2018

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, July 23 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts were weaker on Monday, with chart-based speculative selling a feature as Friday’s turn lower was seen as bearish from a technical standpoint.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil, expectations for large canola ending stocks and recent strength in the Canadian dollar also weighed on values.

A lack of any fresh weather worries across the Prairies added to the softer tone. However, heat and dryness continues to cut into the yield prospects in some areas, helping provide some underlying support.

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Crush margins showed some improvement on the day, which also tempered the declines.

About 15,668 canola contracts traded, which compares with Friday when 10,329 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 3,850 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled with small losses on Monday, as the trade dispute between the United States and China remained at the forefront of the market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported cancellations of 165,000 tonnes of business previously slated for China this morning.
However, the latest weekly export inspections were still solid at just over 700,000 tonnes.

Ideas that U.S. crop conditions may see a slight downgrade in the latest weekly report, out after the close, also provided some underlying support.

CORN futures were higher, finding support from solid export demand. Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 1.3 million tonnes came in above trade guesses.
The need to keep some weather premiums in the market at this time of year was also supportive.

WHEAT futures ended mixed after hitting some of their best levels in weeks as prices ran into resistance. Minneapolis spring wheat and Kansas City hard red winter wheat were both higher, but Chicago soft wheat was lower at the close.
Dryness in Europe, Australia, and the Black Sea region was a driver in the wheat markets, as yield projections out of those major wheat growing regions continue to be revised lower.
However, seasonal harvest pressure weighed somewhat on the winter wheats, while the gains in Minneapolis spring wheat were tempered by the relatively favourable North American growing conditions.

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