Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange suffered double-digit losses on Thursday after the release of new data from Statistics Canada.
StatCan’s first satellite/model-based crop production estimates of the year were released today, projecting the canola crop to total 19.9 million tonnes, compared to last year’s revised figure of 19.2 million and the five-year average of 18.25 million. It would be the largest canola crop in seven years despite having the smallest seeded area in three years.
An analyst also cited harvest progress and United States tariffs on imports as other reasons for canola’s downturn.
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Much of the Prairies will see dry conditions and temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius today. However, the Lethbridge area was expected to see rain and thunderstorms today and tomorrow.
At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up four-tenths of a U.S. cent compared to Wednesday’s close.
Saskatchewan reported its provincewide harvest was 12 per cent complete overall as of Aug. 25, with its canola at one per cent finished.
The markets in Canada and the U.S. will be closed on Monday for Labour Day.
There were 53,628 canola contracts traded on Thursday, compared to Wednesday when 28,219 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 34,448 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN prices on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday were mixed and showed little movement.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported net export sales reductions of 189,200 tonnes for 2024-25 soybeans for the week ended Aug. 21, near the lower end of trade expectations. However, new crop sales totaled 1.373 million tonnes, surpassing trade estimates with nearly half going to unknown destinations.
Soymeal export sales were in line with estimates at 47,300 tonnes for old crop and 214,800 tonnes for new crop. Soyoil export sales were 11,400 tonnes for old crop and 7,100 tonnes for new crop, exceeding trade expectations.
Ahead of trade talks between the U.S. and China, the American Soybean Association warned that without shipments to China, U.S. producers cannot survive. China has placed a tariff on U.S. soybeans reportedly as high as 23 per cent, while buying more from Brazil.
Statistics Canada projected Canada’s new crop soybean production at 7.03 million tonnes, down 7.3 per cent from a year earlier.
December CORN finished the day higher, avoiding a three-day slide for the first time in three weeks.
The USDA saw net export sales reductions of 17,800 tonnes of old crop corn, also in line with trade estimates. New crop sales were 2.09 million tonnes, much more than the higher end of projections at 1.6 million.
The U.S. Drought Monitor reported worsening moisture levels over the past week in Missouri, southern Illinois and most of Tennessee and Ohio. However, average to above-average levels of precipitation are expected for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next two weeks.
StatCan’s projected production figure for 2025-26 corn was 15.55 million tonnes, up 1.4 per cent from last year.
WHEAT prices were higher on Thursday with Chicago soft wheat seeing the biggest gains.
U.S. new crop wheat export sales last week were 579,800 tonnes, up 12 per cent from last week and in the middle of the range of trade estimates.
StatCan projected all wheat production for 2025-26 at 35.55 million tonnes, down from 35.94 million last year, due to lower harvested area and lower yields. Spring wheat would retreat by almost two per cent at 25.99 million tonnes, while durum is expected to decline 4.7 per cent at 6.08 million. Winter wheat would increase 14.3 per cent at about 3.48 million.
Analysts projected the Australian wheat crop to total 32 million to 35 million tonnes and could be further upgraded in the near-term due to improved crop conditions. Last year, Australian wheat was 34.1 million tonnes.
