North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola falls with crude oil and soy complex

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Published: July 19, 2021

WINNIPEG – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Monday, as sharp losses in crude oil and the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex weighed on values.

Slightly more moderate temperatures across much of Western Canada, as smoke from forest fires led to hazy skies, and forecasts calling for much needed precipitation in some areas added to the bearish tone in the market.

However, any precipitation will unlikely be enough to ease drought concerns in many areas.

Sharp weakness in the Canadian dollar, which lost nearly a cent relative to its United States counterpart, was also supportive for canola.

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About 21,459 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 14,315 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,442 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, with losses in crude oil behind some of the selling pressure.

Oil was down after OPEC+, Russia and the United Arab Emirates reached an agreement over the weekend to phase out production cuts and increase oil production over the next year.

Midwestern soybean fields saw some beneficial moisture over the weekend in many areas, which put additional pressure on values.

Renewed concerns over COVID-19 variants were also bearish for the financial and commodity markets in general.

CORN also benefitted from the moisture over the weekend, but forecasts calling for hot and dry weather over the next few weeks were supportive. Gains in wheat were also supportive for corn, keeping the grain caught in a narrow range.

The Brazilian second corn harvest is estimated to be about one-third done. While that’s slightly behind normal, the harvest pressure still weighed on prices.

WHEAT futures were higher, as the northern United States spring wheat areas remain hot and dry. Yield estimates out of the region continue to deteriorate.

Declining crop prospects out of Russia and Ukraine, due to hot and dry conditions there as well, were also supportive.

However, the advancing U.S. winter wheat harvest was somewhat bearish.

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