North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola weakens as traders exit front month

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Published: June 1, 2018

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, June 1 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were steady to lower on Friday, with the largest losses in the nearby July contract as participants rolled their positions out of the front month.

Intermonth spreading accounted for about three-quarters of the activity, with the July/November spread narrowing in on the day.

In the outright market, speculative selling was a feature, as the nearby technical signals have shifted to the downside.

Recent rains across Western Canada helped alleviate some of the weather concerns that had built up in the futures and likely brought in some farmer selling.

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However, there is still a long growing season ahead, keeping some support underneath the market. Advances in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil, and weakness in the Canadian dollar were also supportive.

About 36,065 canola contracts traded, which compares with Thursday when 19,308 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 26,864 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled with small gains on Friday, as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend

Weekly export sales data was mixed for soybeans, with old crop sales of about 275,000 tonnes coming in below trade guesses, while new crop business of 770,000 tonnes topped expectations.

China was reportedly buying some soybeans from the United States, but the lingering trade dispute between the two countries had traders worried over just how many soybeans will actually move.

The U.S. also heightened trade tensions with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union this week, and the back-and-forth threats of tariffs kept some caution in the agricultural markets.

CORN futures were lower on Friday. Weekly U.S. corn export sales were in generally in line with expectation, coming in at nearly a million tonnes for old crop, and at about 150,000 tonnes for new crop.

Weather conditions remain mostly favourable across the U.S. Corn Belt. Although longer-range forecasts calling for hotter and drier weather through June kept some caution in the market.

WHEAT futures were mostly lower, with the largest losses in Minneapolis spring wheat.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest is starting to move forward in the southern Plains, putting some harvest pressure on values despite smaller yields due to drought.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at about 250,000 tonnes – which was in line with trade guesses.

Forecasts remain mostly hot and dry through the major U.S. winter wheat growing region, while Australia and the Black Sea region are also dealing with a lack of moisture.

However, improving conditions for spring wheat in the northern U.S. and Canada put some pressure on values.

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